Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Rams Odds, Preview, Picks & Predictions
Bills vs. Rams Odds
| Bills Odds | -2.5 |
| Rams Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 51.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 8 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The first installment of Thursday Night Football in 2022 will feature the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two likely Super Bowl contenders, pricing Buffalo as 2.5 point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills finished 2021 with an 11-6 regular season record, which was good enough to win the AFC East and secure the third seed in the postseason. If not for losing the coin toss against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, it is possible that this Thursday Night Football matchup would be a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl.
Instead, Buffalo enters the new season hungry to finally get over the proverbial hump. They return Josh Allen, who has an 87-to-26 touchdown-to-interception ratio across the last two years, unambiguously asserting himself as one of the premier quarterbacks in football. Concerns about the departure of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll are likely overblown, considering that Ken Dorsey, the new offensive coordinator, has been Allen’s quarterback coach since 2019. Dorsey was also the quarterback coach for Cam Newton in 2015 when he won the league’s Most Valuable Player award en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Further, Allen will be surrounded by three extremely talented wide receivers, with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie. If there is any concern for this offense, it is the offensive line, which has multiple major red flags at starting positions – far from an ideal situation against a ferocious Los Angeles pass rush.
During the offseason, Buffalo added Von Miller, Shaq Lawson, and DaQuan Jones to a defensive line that ranked 6th in sacks per pass attempt last fall. The larger vulnerability for the Bills’ defense on Thursday is the play of their linebackers and secondary unit. Buffalo will be relying on rookie Kaiir Elam to slow down Allen Robinson in his NFL debut – no small task. Dane Jackson will see plenty of snaps on the other side of the field, with star corner Tre’Davious White still recovering from a knee injury. If the defensive line fails to put pressure on Matthew Stafford, this defense could have a difficult time keeping points off of the board in this one.
Los Angeles Rams
Prior to Week 1 last year, I wrote that “Stafford did not have his best season in 2020, but playing behind a better offensive line with better weapons on the outside should help him tremendously in 2021. Stafford’s penchant for avoiding turnover-worthy plays, while simultaneously being a threat to complete deep passes down the field makes him a perfect fit for Sean McVay’s offense.” In 2021, the veteran signal caller was elite in all phases of the game, posting a career high in passer rating against the blitz, and well-above league average passer ratings from a clean pocket, under pressure, on 3rd down, and in the red zone. Head Coach Sean McVay’s ability to get the ball out of Stafford’s hands quickly should once again be an asset in 2022, and in particular against a Buffalo defense with multiple capable pass-rushers. The offensive line took a hit when Andrew Whitworth retired during the offseason, but he will be replaced by Joe Noteboom, who is one of the more underrated offensive lineman in the NFL. Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson form, arguably, the most talented wide receiver tandem in the league. This offense should be lethal again this fall, and should be able to move the ball effectively in this matchup.
Defensively, the Rams have the most elite collection of run-stuffers in the league, with Leonard Floyd, Aaron Donald, Greg Gaines, and Justin Hollins on the field. The more pressing issue on this side of the ball on Thursday will be in the secondary. Jalen Ramsey finished 2021 as the highest graded cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. However, David Long Jr. finished 70th out of 116 players at his position, and the safety tandem of Taylor Rapp and Jordan Fuller is far from elite. Against Buffalo’s fearsome threesome of receivers, Los Angeles is vulnerable.
Bills vs. Rams Thursday Night Football Picks & Predictions
The Bills might have the most talent of any roster in the NFL heading into 2022, but that does not mean that they match-up well with the defending Super Bowl Champions. Buffalo’s primary strength on the defensive side of the ball, their pass rush, could be effectively neutralized by McVay’s quick passing game. The Bills’ inability to run the football against a dominant Rams’ defensive line could put Josh Allen in obvious passing situations, which could help Los Angeles’ secondary slow down Buffalo’s elite passing attack.
The inability of the Bills to get after the quarterback combined with their vulnerable secondary unit could lead to quick points on more than one occasion on Thursday. Buffalo’s inability to run the football is likely to force them to throw the ball frequently, which should lead to at least one or two long scores against a weak Los Angeles secondary unit. In 2021, both of these teams ranked in the top-half of the league in pace. Expect an up-tempo affair between these two clubs in the season opener, and for the over to cash for bettors.
PICK: Rams +3 (-135), Over 51 (-120)
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