Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds, Prediction & Pick
Bills vs. Bengals Odds
| Bills Odds | +2 |
| Bengals Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 50.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 5 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
NFL Sunday Week 9 will conclude with a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals from Paycor Stadium. Entering play, both the Bills and Bengals are over the .500 mark, but both teams are still facing an uphill battle to a favorable playoff seed in the AFC later this winter.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bengals as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 50.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen looking to stay hot
Entering play in Week 9, Josh Allen leads all quarterbacks in QBR in 2023. His 17-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio does not stand out as elite, but he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five consecutive games and continues to propel this Buffalo offense on a weekly basis. Allen also has five scores on the ground this fall and has used his legs more of late, with a season-high seven rushing attempts in back-to-back games.
Tonight’s game has significant playoff implications, which means we could see Allen using his legs to make plays even more than we have seen so far this season.
Buffalo defense trying to overcome major injuries
From Week 1 to Week 4, Buffalo’s defense ranked 4th in EPA/play and 19th in success rate. Since losing linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones in Week 5, the Bills defense ranks 28th in EPA/play and 25th in success rate.
In the last two weeks alone, Buffalo has allowed 29 points to the anemic New England Patriots and over 300 yards of total offense to the underwhelming Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This unit is struggling right now, and there are very few signs suggesting that a turnaround is imminent.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is back
Joe Burrow was hurt to begin the season, and his lack of mobility significantly hindered his production on the football field. In his first four games played, Burrow had only two passing touchdowns plus a pair of interceptions. Cincinnati was 1-3 in those contests.
Across the last three weeks, Burrow has looked significantly better, throwing eight touchdowns and only one interception. During that stretch, the Bengals are an unblemished 3-0, with two of those victories coming by multiple scores.
Cincinnati defense surging into November
The return of Burrow to full health has also had a positive impact on the Bengals defense, which ranks 3rd in EPA/play since Week 5. In that span, Cincinnati ranks 6th in dropback EPA/play and 11th in Rush EPA/play, making life difficult for their opponents in all areas of the game.
Notably, Cincinnati’s defense has increased their pressure rate significantly as the season has progressed. In Week 8, the Bengals had the 6th-best defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL. Prior to their Week 7 bye, Cincinnati led the entire league in pressure rate in Week 6. This group has been getting after the quarterback better than almost any team in the league across the last month. Expect more of the same on Sunday Night Football.
Bills vs. Bengals – Picks & Predictions
Cincinnati scored 31 points last weekend against a formidable San Francisco defense and now gets an even more favorable matchup against an injury-plagued Buffalo defense that has been struggling in recent weeks. The Bills allowed 29 points to Mac Jones and company only two weeks ago. Expect Joe Burrow and the Bengals to come out with an aggressive game plan that looks to exploit the middle of the field against their AFC rivals on prime time television.
PICK: Bengals Team Total – Over 26.5 Points (-115, Fanatics Sportsbook)