Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | -3 |
| Dolphins Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 7 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The NFL regular season will conclude with a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The winner of tonight’s contest will secure the 2-seed in the AFC playoff bracket and an AFC East division title.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bills as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 48.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen, Bills looking to clinch 4th consecutive AFC East title
After an underwhelming 6-6 start to the campaign, the Bills chances of a 4th consecutive AFC East title looked slim, but they are undefeated since their bye and are now favored to win their division heading into Week 18. Since Week 14, Buffalo ranks 5th in DVOA and has been one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, Josh Allen and company rank 10th in offensive EPA/play and 8th in offensive success rate. They have been especially strong on the ground, ranking 3rd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate across their last four games. Their newfound balanced offensive attack has propelled them to 24 points or more in three consecutive games and helped them win the time of possession battle three times since Week 14.
Buffalo’s offense is trending in the right direction at the right time of the year heading into their most important game of the season.
Buffalo defense trending in the right direction
Buffalo’s defense is also trending in the right direction, having held their opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense each of the last three weeks. The Bills returned DL DaQuan Jones to the field in Week 17, which only helps the depth of the pass rush and the ability of the defensive line to stop the run. This unit had struggled mightily without Jones and LB Matt Milano since Week 5, but they appear to be rounding into form just in time for the postseason.
Miami Dolphins
What to expect from short-handed Miami offense in Week 18
Per Tom Pelissero, RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle are “not expected to play” Sunday night against the Bills, further hindering an offense that is already playing without starting C Connor Williams and starting LG Isaiah Wynn.
Since Williams last played in Week 13, Miami’s offense ranks 27th in EPA/play and 12th in success rate. The team scored 27 points against the Titans and 30 points against the Jets, but the offense was out-gained by Tennessee and had only 290 yards against the Jets. The Cowboys held the Dolphins to 1 offensive touchdown and the Ravens limited the Dolphins to 19 points in a blowout.
This unit is struggling mightily at the moment and is a far cry from the group that hung a 70-burger on the Broncos earlier this season.
Dolphins defense dealing with injury plague
In Week 18, the Dolphins defense will be without LB Bradley Chubb, LB Jaelen Phillips, CB Xavien Howard, and potentially S Jevon Holland, who was downgraded to questionable on Saturday to due ongoing issues with his knees.
From Week 8 to Week 13, with CB Jalen Ramsey back healthy and the rest of the defense yet to experience a barrage of injuries, Miami’s defense ranked 2nd in EPA/play and 13th in success rate. However, since Week 14, the Dolphins rank 22nd in EPA/play and 20th in success rate on the defensive side of the ball.
The return of LB Jerome Baker will help solidify the middle of the field in coverage, but there is simply no way to present this unit as currently constructed in a positive light. There are individual playmakers who are capable of making game-changing plays, but the overall structure of Miami’s defense is significantly weakened with their recent run of poor injury luck.
Bills vs. Dolphins – Picks & Predictions
From Week 14 to Week 17, the Bills ranked 4th in DVOA, while the Dolphins ranked 11th. The gap in talent in this matchup is likely even larger heading into Week 18, with the Dolphins losing Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard for the regular season finale. Miami has already lost Jaelen Phillips on the defensive side of the ball in the last month, making it difficult to see how they intend to slow down a dynamic Buffalo offense on Sunday night. The Bills are playing elite football right now and are deserving of being favored in this matchup, as they look to secure the 2-seed in the AFC playoff picture and another AFC East division title.
PICK: Bills Moneyline (-160, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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