Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | +2.5 |
| Dolphins Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Thursday, September 12th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 2 of the 2024 NFL regular season will begin with an exciting matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Dolphins as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Josh Allen and the Bills trailed by as many as 14 points in Week 1, before surging in the 2nd half for a 34-28 victory. According to Bills PR, their 14-point come-from-behind win against the Cardinals was the team’s first comeback win of 14+ points win since Week 4 of 2022. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins also played with fire in their season opener. According to ESPN, Miami had only a 7.7% chance of winning their game against the Jaguars when they were trailing 17-7 with 2:49 left in the 3rd quarter. After Jacksonville fumbled in the red zone, Tagovailoa hit Tyreek Hill for an 80-yard touchdown to bring the score to 17-14. The Dolphins kicked a pair of field goals in the 4th quarter to emerge with a win.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Allen and the Bills looking to continue success against Dolphins
Josh Allen has enjoyed tremendous success against the Dolphins early in his NFL career. According to Bills PR, Allen is 11-2 all-time against Miami and has won AFC Player of the Week 5 times in 12 regular season meetings. Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all 13 games in which he’s faced Miami – the longest such streak by a quarterback against a single opponent in NFL history.
Of course, Miami has a new defensive coordinator and some new faces on that side of the ball in 2024, so the historical numbers aren’t of significant importance ahead of kickoff on Thursday. Miami played the 3rd-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL in 2023 but played zone coverage nearly exclusively against Jacksonville in Week 1, so this is likely to be a different type of matchup for Allen and the Bills compared to prior meetings. That being said, Allen was 10-for-11 for 124 passing yards against zone coverage in Buffalo’s season-opening win over Arizona. This will be an area of the game to watch.
Buffalo defense struggling without Matt Milano
Linebacker Matt Milano will be on the sidelines once again on Thursday, which is a significant hurdle for Buffalo’s defense to overcome. Milano is arguably the team’s most important defensive player, and the splits with him on/off the field largely support that statement. From Week 1 to Week 4 in 2023, with Milano healthy, the Bills defense ranked 4th in EPA/play. From Week 6 to Week 18, they ranked 16th in EPA/play. Buffalo continued to be vulnerable to big plays last week against Arizona and finished the opening week of action ranked 19th in EPA/play.
Tonight, the Bills defense will also be without starting slot cornerback Taron Johnson – another notable absence. Johnson played an NFL-high 474 coverage snaps in the slot in 2023. Among 74 players who logged 100+ coverage snaps in the slot last season, Johnson allowed the 11th-fewest yards per snap. Cam Lewis played 29 snaps in Week 1 after Johnson left the game and is the likely candidate to fill that role again in Week 2. Lewis, who allowed 4 receptions on only 18 coverage snaps in the slot in Week 1, is a significant downgrade in ability at the position.
Miami Dolphins Preview
Miami running backs not at full strength heading into Thursday Night Football
Running back Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out for Thursday’s action against the Bills, and DeVon Achane has only logged a single limited practice participation this week. Local media expects Achane to play, but it’s worth noting that he struggled mightily with efficiency in the team’s season opener as well, finishing with only 24 rushing yards on 10 attempts.
This evening, expect Jeff Wilson Jr. to see an expanded role in the team’s rushing attack, with rookie Jaylen Wright likely to make his NFL debut as well. It’s possible that Tua Tagovailoa and company rely more heavily on their passing attack if they are unable to gain early traction on the ground.
Will the Dolphins’ defense be able to get off of the field on 3rd down?
In both regular season meetings between these two teams in 2023, Miami’s Achilles heel defensively was their inability to get off of the field on 3rd down. Buffalo went 5-for-10 on 3rd down in a 48-20 victory against Miami in Week 4 and 9-for-15 on 3rd down when the two teams met in Week 18 with the division title hanging in the balance.
Josh Allen and the Bills excel at moving the chains, evident by the fact that they led the league in 3rd down conversion rate last season. And it’s not luck – Buffalo does an excellent job putting themselves in favorable 3rd down situations. They led the league in 3rd & short opportunities (3 yards or fewer “to go”) last season.
In Week 1, Buffalo struggled with penalties, which led to them uncharacteristically going 3-for-9 on 3rd down and facing an average distance of 8.6 yards to go, which was the 7th-worst mark in the league last week. Miami will need to control Buffalo’s early-down success rate if they want to have better success against their division rivals in 2024.
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
In Week 18 last season, Buffalo and Miami only combined for 35 points in a game that featured 5 turnovers. In their prior meetings since Mike McDaniel took over as Miami’s head coach, these two teams have combined for 68 points, 65 points, 61 points, and 40 points. In the game with 40 points, the Bills had 497 yards of total offense but missed a field goal and went only 2-for-4 in the red zone.
Recent meetings between these two teams have been dominated by Buffalo, and nearly all of them have been high scoring. Playing on a short week certainly introduces a certain level of variance to the equation, but it’s difficult to envision a Dolphins blowout win or either of these offenses struggling on Thursday. We rarely recommend Same Game Parlays in these game preview articles, but this is a spot where the points might be worth buying, considering Buffalo’s defensive injuries. Josh Allen should be able to do enough by himself to give this play a good chance to cash.
PICK: Same Game Parlay – Bills +7.5, Over 41 (-130, “DraftKings”)
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