Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Odds, Prediction & Pick
Bills vs. Giants Odds
| Bills Odds | -2 |
| Jets Odds | +2 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Date | Mon, Sep. 11 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 1 of the NFL season will conclude with an exciting matchup in the Big Apple between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Josh Allen and the Bills are running things back with a nearly identical roster in 2023 after back-to-back premature playoff exits. Aaron Rodgers and the revamped New York Jets will be looking to make the postseason for the first time in over a decade.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bills as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Buffalo Bills
Tough test for Josh Allen to begin 2023
Josh Allen was sensational again last fall, finishing fourth in EPA/play and first in PFF’s quarterback grading system, despite playing the second-half of the regular season with a significant elbow injury. Allen’s ability to make plays with his legs gives him a safe floor on a week-to-week basis. Still, he did struggle through the air in two matchups against the New York Jets defense in 2022 – posting a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and averaging only 176 passing yards per game. Playing behind a porous offensive line, Allen once again has limited upside in this intra-division affair.
How much will Buffalo’s defense miss Von Miller?
In 2022, Buffalo’s defense ranked sixth from Week 1 to Week 12, with Von Miller on the field. From Week 13 to the end of the regular season, the defense ranked 11th – regressing against both the run and the pass. Miller will begin 2023 on the PUP list, meaning that he will miss the first four games of the campaign as he recovers from a torn ACL. Last season, the Bills were the best defense in the league when they were able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but ranked much closer to the league average when they failed to get pressure. Facing Aaron Rodgers, who is skilled at getting rid of the ball quickly, Buffalo’s defense could have a difficult time getting off of the field on a consistent basis.
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers leads new-look Jets offense
Among quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks in 2022, Aaron Rodgers ranked ninth in average time to throw, meaning that he routinely got rid of the ball quickly. Rodgers finished seventh in this metric in 2021 as well. Entering Week 1, New York’s offensive line has no shortage of question marks, with Mekhi Becton playing his first career snaps at right tackle and Duane Brown entering his age-38 season. The game plan is likely going to be predicated on Rodgers getting the ball out quickly, which should lead to success for this group against a beatable Buffalo secondary unit.
Jets defense best in the NFL?
New York has one of the better front sevens in the NFL, with Carl Lawson, Quinnen Williams, Al Woods, and John Franklin-Myers on the defensive line and Jamien Sherwood and C.J. Mosley leading the linebacker corps. This group has minimal quality depth behind their starters, but everyone is healthy going into Week 1, leaving few concerns up-front defensively for tonight’s matchup. D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner were the best cornerback tandem in the NFL last fall. Both players had at least 10 passes defended and finished in the top-10 at their position in coverage grade, per PFF. Safety is a concern after Chuck Clark tore his ACL, but the presence of Reed and Gardner give this unit an extremely high floor on a week-to-week basis.
Bills vs. Jets Picks & Predictions
The Bills are one of the most over-hyped teams in the NFL heading into the new campaign. Josh Allen has MVP upside, but the once-vaunted defense leaves much to be desired at cornerback and linebacker, especially after losing Tremaine Edmunds in free agency. The absence of Von Miller is only likely to make life more difficult for this group against a quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, who is skilled at avoiding pressure and getting the ball out quickly. The Jets are better on both sides of the ball and have good value at plus money on Monday Night Football.
PICK: Jets ML (+110, Fanatics)