Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bills vs. Jets Odds
| Bills Odds | -1 |
| Jets Odds | +1 |
| Over/Under | 41.5 |
| Date | Monday, October 14th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 6 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a battle between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets on Monday Night Football.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Bills as 1-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 41.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Josh Allen is 6-1 SU in his career when entering play on a 2-game losing streak. The Jets are returning home from playing in London, without the benefit of a bye week, which is a tough travel spot for the home underdogs.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Allen struggling under pressure
Josh Allen has struggled under pressure so far in 2024, ranking 18th out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating, 21st in yards per attempt, and 33rd in completion% in such situations this season. The Jets, despite missing a pair of key pass rushers during the first month of the new campaign, have had success getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Other than a Week 4 game played in bad weather in New York, the Jets have ranked in the top half of the NFL in defensive pressure rate in each of their other games, including 3 games ranked in the top 9 and a pair of games ranked in the top 3. If New York continues to get pressure at a high rate tonight, Allen could struggle.
Oliver, Miller, Milano OUT for Monday Night Football
Buffalo’s defense has been without All-Pro LB Matt Milano all season but will also be missing DT Ed Oliver and EDGE Von Miller on Monday in a key divisional matchup. Oliver played 41+ snaps in each of the team’s first 4 games and was 2nd on the team, with 9.5 sacks in 2023. Miller led the Bills’ defense with 3 sacks through the team’s first 4 games this fall prior to being suspended due to an alleged felony assault of a pregnant woman.
In Week 5, Buffalo struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, finishing the week ranked 13th out of 28 teams in pressure rate despite playing a beatable offensive line in Houston. This is an area of the game to watch this evening.
New York Jets Preview
Jeff Ulbrich takes over as head coach, Todd Downing new offensive play caller
Following back-to-back disappointing losses, the Jets decided to move in a new direction with the team’s leadership, firing head coach Robert Saleh and promoting Jeff Ulbrich to an interim role. Ulbrich announced earlier this week that he’s making a change on the offensive side of the ball as well, with Todd Downing taking over for Nathaniel Hackett as the team’s play caller. In 2021 and 2022, Downing served as the offensive coordinator for the Titans, with those units ranking 20th and 21st in DVOA, respectively.
It remains to be seen if the changes in leadership will be enough to rally New York’s offense, but the likely return of starting RT Morgan Moses will undoubtedly be a positive impact. New York’s offense scored 19 points, 24 points, and 24 points in 3 games with Moses healthy to begin the year, but struggled (9 points and 17 points) in the games that he missed.
Mosley likely to play for first time since Week 2
The Jets’ defensive captain, star LB C.J. Mosley, has been sidelined since Week 2 due to a toe injury, but seems likely to return to the field this evening against the Bills. Mosley led New York’s defense with 151 tackles in 2023 and is arguably their most important player on the defensive side of the ball.
Mosley was a limited participant at practice all week, which left his new head coach “hopeful” that he will be able to suit up on Monday. His return will be a huge boon to a Jets defense that has already been playing at a high level this fall, ranking 12th in DVOA after 5 games despite missing some key pieces.
Bills vs. Jets Prediction
New York’s season began with a lot of optimism, with Aaron Rodgers returning from last year’s season-ending Achilles injury. It quickly took a turn for the worse after losing a couple of key defensive pieces for multiple weeks in addition to having starting RT Morgan Moses miss multiple games.
Tonight, the Jets have a chance to get everything back on track, facing a Bills team that has been bitten by the injury bug in recent weeks. New York should have LB C.J. Mosley and RT Morgan Moses back in the lineup this evening, which is a major boon to a group that will also be playing their first game for a new head coach.
The Jets should have every opportunity to get back in the win column. Alt-spread wagers are in play up to Jets -6.5 and +239 for those who are betting on Rodgers and company making a statement in primetime.
PICK: Jets Moneyline (+102, DraftKings)
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