I Hope I Don't Suck: BMW Championship
Stephen Keech knows his basketball, baseball, and football, but now he’s ready to take a swing at golf. This week, follow Keech as he uses RotoGrinders Premium PGA tools to make picks for the BMW Championship, in the DFS lobby and at the sportsbook.
- Build PGA Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- Picks, Projections & More
BMW Championship
Moving sucks. It’s not the worst part of life, but among problems that aren’t really that bad, it’s towards the top of the list. Packing stuff up. Calling the electric company so they can overcharge you at a new address. I also needed to have a Comcast guy actually come to my place in person because it had never been hooked up there or something along those lines. In the midst of packing I also found four boxes I had never unpacked the last time I moved. That was four years ago. I have unpacked most of the stuff in my new place now but have not yet unpacked those boxes and as I type this out I’m realizing if I don’t do that this week it won’t happen until I move again. I’ve also had to spackle the wall already and I’ve only been here three days. Did not know they made spackle that was pink and then turned white as it dried. Hanging televisions is not my strong suit.
I’ve had a two-week hiatus from golf. In case it’s not clear I just got done moving and was also suffocated with the NBA summer league. It’s not easy to put out viable projections with next to no data and unpredictable rotations. But enough about that, it’s time to put on my polo and get to work in the PGA streets. I’m not even going to recap the St. Jude Invitational because it was two weeks ago, but I did hit on a Daniel Berger top five bet that paid out in full on BetMGM (they are the only legal US book to pay out ties in full), so I’m officially in the green as a golf bettor for now. I am 0-2 crossing the cash line in DFS single-entry tournaments, but hopefully the third time’s a charm.
It seems a little odd to make my return during the playoffs, but I’m back for the BMW Championship. This course features very slim fairways, small greens and does not sound easy to play from the rough. My gut instinct is to aim for golfers who are accurate, particularly off the tee. The fact that we are dealing with smaller than average greens doesn’t really change my approach too much. Putting is always important and accurate golfers in general should fare better here, and that’s what I’m looking for anyway. This course has also never been utilized for a PGA event, so we have no course history. That does not bode well for me because I had written down in my notes to target golfers who have had success here and that’s just flat out impossible. Maybe some degenerate is trying to find random rounds PGA golfers played here deep in some reddit thread but I don’t have time for that. There is no cut in this event, and my good friend Notorious noted in this week’s Core Plays that he generally tries to avoid a little more chalk in no-cut events. I’ll also try to do a little of that using our Projected Ownership.
I’m starting with Patrick Cantlay in my single-entry lineup. He’s considerably cheaper than Rahm and also comes in with a lower projected ownership. I tried to play around with rostering both but hated what I could build around it. Paul Casey was next on the list after a terrible showing in the Northern Trust. He did have two strong tournaments prior and still looks like one of the best golfers in the field at a discount. Charley Hoffman was the first value golfer I targeted – he had excellent Rounds 2&3 in the Northern Trust but still finished just outside the top 20. Hoffman grades out well in Notorious’ model and provided enough cost savings to give me a lineup I felt good about. I also heard that Viktor Hovland broke his putter and had to putt with a wedge in the last round of the Northern Trust, so he immediately caught my eye and also appears to be one of the better bounce-back candidates. I entered my lineup into the $60K PGA Dogleg on DraftKings. Let’s get into the sports betting side, where I’m actually in the green at this point.
BMW Championship Betting Picks
Daniel Berger’s top-five finish netted $120, and I dropped $10 on my Berger to win outright and my Max Homa top ten to drop my winnings down to $100 for the St. Jude Invitational. I’m barely breaking even overall due to the DFS struggles through two weeks, but we’ll hope to get on track here in Week 3.
Betting Season Total: $71.64, Single Entry DFS: -$66
Patrick Cantlay to win outright +2500 (BetMGM/DraftKings) – .1 units ($10 to win $250)
Paul Casey to win outright +4000 (BetMGM) – .1 units ($10 to win $400)
Charley Hoffman to finish in the top 10 +650 – .1 units ($10 to win $65)
I particularly like the Paul Casey price on BetMGM, and they are also running a promotion where they will refund that outright bet if he finishes in the top five. I’ll see you guys next week – hopefully I’m still in the green.