NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Broncos-Bills DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Broncos at Bills on Monday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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The Bills are nowhere near where they expected to be through nine games, sitting at 5-4 with losses to the Jets, Patriots, Jaguars, and Bengals, and barely beating the Giants and Bucs by a combined 11 points only. This should be a “get right” game for them tonight against a 3-5 Broncos team that ranks towards the bottom in almost every defensive statistic, but Denver will be coming into this game on a high after beating the Chiefs by 15 last game, along with a win over the Packers before that, so Buffalo will need to put up points early and often to squash any hope for another upset.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Broncos at Bills Week 10
Currently, this game is sitting at a 47.5 total, with the Bills favored by 7 points. The Bills’ 27.25 team total is a strong indication for how important this game is for their psyche as a top offense in the league, as they haven’t put up over 25 points in five straight games. With the nation watching in a home matchup against a defense they should destroy on paper, I think we get a vintage Josh Allen 3+ total TD performance, and at least three of Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, and Cook likely find the endzone.
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($12,600) is a clear cash game must play and likely optimal captain play. He has legit 40+ FP upside against a Broncos defense, allowing over 400 yards/game and 27.3 points/game, both dead last in the league.
Russell Wilson ($9,400) is cheap and has a pretty neutral matchup against a Bills defense allowing almost 220 pass yards/game. The game script should absolutely be in his favor as big road underdogs, and his rushing ability does give him a decent floor and potential big ceiling, so I don’t mind him in cash games for your Denver exposure, and I would definitely have plenty of him in GPPs.
Running Back
James Cook ($10,000) remains overpriced in my opinion, as he’s gone for over 9 FP just once in his last five games, and that included solid game script matchups with the Giants and Pats. He continues to be taken off the field in goal-line situations for Murray, and that could get worse in other situations once the Bills start using Fournette. Last week he only saw 10 touches in a close game with the Bengals, and yes, tonight it’s a fantastic on-paper matchup against a defense allowing 154.1 rush yards/game, but as the third most expensive player with plenty of ways for him to not pay off his price, I will likely let others gamble on his usage in cash games and will just have exposure to him in GPPs.
Javonte Williams ($7,200) is the RB I’d be targeting from this game, as he comes at a massive discount to Cook, and is coming off a game in which he saw 30 touches en route to a win over the Chiefs, so that formula will likely continue if Denver can keep this game relatively close. Williams has also seen 3+ targets in all but one game this year, so he should still be involved if they fall behind, and if Denver gets any kind of a lead, they will likely ride Williams to kill the clock and keep the Bills off the field. Against a below-average rush defense allowing 114.4 rush yards/game, Williams could end up with a great overall line at way too cheap of a salary.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs ($12,000) is expensive but the clear highest upside player from this game, so if you can fit him with Allen in cash games by all means go for it if you are comfortable with the rest of your lineup. Gabe Davis ($7,400) is a huge discount to Diggs for Bills pass game exposure, and he should be on any lineup you make that omits Diggs for max leverage. Coming off a terrible 0 catch game on 2 targets the Bills may force-feed Davis a bit to get him going as he’s a crucial piece to them making a Super Bowl run, so I don’t mind using Davis in cash games to help save some salary. Khalil Shakir ($4,400) continues to see solid usage with 14 targets over his last three games, so he’s a fine guy to fill a final flex spot and someone to definitely use in GPPs in a variety of Bills stacks.
Courtland Sutton ($7,000) and Jerry Jeudy ($6,800) are both super cheap and should see a boost in targets due to the likely game script. They’re both averaging about 5-7 targets/game, but Sutton has dominated in the touchdown department with 6 to Jeudy’s 1, Basically the same price, I would lean towards Sutton in cash games if you only have room to fit one of them. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), I’d definitely include both in stacks with Wilson, and I’d even sprinkle in some Marvin Mims ($3,800).
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid ($8,400) continues to rise in salary, but still remains too cheap given his 26 targets over the last three games and 15+ FP in all of those games. He is the clear second favorite target for Allen after Diggs, and I’d much rather use him over Davis for just $1k more in price, so find a spot for him in cash games and definitely have captain exposure to him in GPPs.
Adam Trautman ($200) is min price and does have a couple of games with 5 targets on the year, including one touchdown. With only 2 catches over his last three games, I just can’t trust him in a cash game lineup even if it helps fit in 5 other solid guys. However, by all means, make some GPP lineups with him for the miniscule chance that he finds the endzone or even gets a few catches.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not touching the Denver DST ($3,200) with a ten foot pole today, while the Bills DST ($5,000) definitely has some upside and are a fine option for a final flex spot. Tyler Bass ($5,200) is another solid flex play in that price range that should get plenty of opportunities today, and Will Lutz ($4,600) is worth having in some GPP lineups on an offense that struggles to finish drives.
Monday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
Going Bills heavy in most lineups is the clear way to go tonight, but I think 4-2 is about as far as I’d take the stack in cash games. I think Williams and Sutton are fantastic values from Denver and are great cheap bring backs to your Bills-heavy teams that should all have Allen and at least one or two of Diggs/Davis/Kincaid, and I like rounding out flex spots with the Bills DST or Bass.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Josh Allen – Not much to say besides he’s a must-play in all formats and all lineups, and will likely be the optimal captain play.
2. Dalton Kincaid – Huge upside for someone priced under $8.5k, and easily my favorite p/$ Bills skill player for cash games.
3. Javonte Williams – He’s a steal at $7.2k for someone with 30 touch upside in his range of outcomes, and should be your Denver exposure priority in cash games.
4. Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy – At basically the same price, I give the edge to Sutton for cash games given his higher TD upside, but both should be all over your GPP lineups.
5. Tyler Bass / Bills DST – I think they’re the best cash game targets for under $6k, and each has a solid floor/ceiling combo to fill out any final flex spot or two in a lineup.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Monday Night Football
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