NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Broncos-Chiefs DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Chiefs vs. Broncos on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The 1-4 Broncos head to Arrowhead to take on the 4-1 Chiefs in a divisional matchup that should be pretty one-sided on paper. The Broncos will get Javonte Williams back after he missed last week with a hip flexor injury, while Travis Kelce is officially questionable with a low ankle sprain but expected to play. Greg Dulcich has been practicing and is questionable for this game, so we’ll see if he’s active this week or next.
Current weather reports have winds sustained between 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph, along with a chance of rain. This should lead to more rushing attempts for both teams along with more potential turnovers, so I’m already loving the Pacheco/KC DST correlation play.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Broncos at Chiefs Week 6
Currently, this game is sitting at a 47.5 total, with the Chiefs favored by 10.5 points. It’s hard to see a way Denver keeps this game close with how bad their defense has been along with how mediocre the offense has performed, and that’s all before we factor in the tough road environment and potential bad weather. If the Chiefs do in fact get to an early lead, we should see a heavy dose of Pacheco against the worst run defense in football, making him my frontrunner for top captain play.
Quarterback
With likely 15-30mph wind and potential rain I’m not a huge fan of either QB here, but I think the top lineups will have at least one of Russell Wilson and/or Patrick Mahomes in them. They’re both averaging just over 21 FPPG this season, and Mahomes gets to face the 29th-ranked pass defense in football, while Wilson will likely have to throw it a ton in catch-up mode most of the game. I’d definitely have lineups that include both QBs and lineups that have just one if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), and if you’re just doing one lineup, I’d do my best jamming in Mahomes with Wilson being a flex option if you have the salary and like the rest of your team.
Running Back
This should be the Isiah Pacheco show tonight, as pretty much ever factor is in his favor for a huge game. As huge home favorite playing in windy/wet conditions, the Chiefs should lean on the run game early and often, and if they build a big lead late, we could see something silly like 30+ carries for Pacheco. The Broncos are allowing 187.6 rush yards/game, which is the most in football, so I’d say Pacheco has about a 120 rush yard floor with a great shot at multiple TDs. He’s my favorite captain play, and a must-play in cash games. With his likely high ownership, I’d make sure to have some GPP lineups with McKinnon or Edwards-Helaire just in case of a Pacheco injury or goal-line TD poaches.
The Broncos backfield will be in a three-way timeshare between Williams, Perine, and McLaughlin, so I want no part of it in cash games. The likely game script should favor McLaughlin as he would see the most work if Denver gets blown out, but he’s still facing an 11th-ranked Chiefs rush defense allowing under 98 rush yards/game, so there’s just not a lot to be excited about from any Denver RB outside of GPPs.
Wide Receiver
Similar to the Denver RBs, the WRs are pretty unappealing too, as the Chiefs are allowing under 205 pass yards/game, and windy conditions could limit their targets and upside. Jerry Jeudy has been seeing the most targets the last couple of weeks, so he’s the highest upside play, while Sutton has been very TD dependent for value and has just four total catches the last two weeks. Marvin Mims is cheap at $4,600 and is a big-time boom or bust play, while Brandon Johnson is off my radar even at $1,200 as he hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in any game this year.
It’s anyone’s guess who the top KC WR will be this game, as they should have six active, and in the last game they all saw at least two targets each. Rashee Rice has done the most with his targets, scoring two TDs on the year, and at $6,400 makes for an excellent cash game flex play. Moore, Toney, MVS, Watson, and Ross are all at various price points, and I can only recommend using them sporadically if you’re doing a bunch of GPP teams.
Tight End
If Travis Kelce is active he is the clear top target for Mahomes, and I’d have him on any lineup you build that doesn’t include Pacheco for max leverage. I’m not calling Kelce a must play in cash games as game script, weather, and his ankle injury are all factors that could limit his usage and upside, but definitely have exposure to him if you’re doing MME. Noah Gray ($4,400) would be in cash game consideration if Kelce is somehow out, otherwise he’s just a GPP dart throw.
If Greg Dulcich ($3,200) plays he’s an intriguing value play with some upside, but there is some risk he’s eased in his first game back along with the tough matchup and windy conditions not working in his favor. If Dulcich remains out, then Adam Trautman ($2,800) will remain the TE1, and he has some value appeal coming off a 4-26-1 game on 5 targets. Trautman is my favorite flex play under $3k, so keep him in consideration if you need to fill a final spot for cheap and Dulcich isn’t active. Manhertz and Adkins are just dust in the wind as the backup TEs.
Defense / Special Teams
I have zero interest in the Broncos DST outside of a couple of GPP fliers, as they’re allowing 34.6 points/game and just over 450 yards/game of offense. The Chiefs DST is a very appealing cash game flex play at $5,600, and a great correlation play with Pacheco.
With wet and windy conditions expected, I’m not thrilled about either kicker’s upside, but if you do use one in your main build, I’d go with Harrison Butker ($4,800).
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
My favorite builds are 4-2 Chiefs stacks with Pacheco at captain and combinations of Jeudy/Sutton/Trautman as Denver bring-backs to Mahomes/Rice, along with the Chiefs DST. Denver stacks are going to be much lower-owned, so make sure to have 4-2 and even 5-1 stack exposure in GPPs, just in case Russ cooks. Most top lineups should have at least 3 Chiefs in them, with Pacheco being my favorite play in all formats.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Isiah Pacheco – Huge home favorite facing the worst rush defense in football, who should also be looking at a heavier workload due to wet/windy conditions.
2. Chiefs DST – Excellent correlation play with Pacheco, and there should be plenty of turnover opportunities in 15-30 mph wind with potential rain.
3. Rashee Rice – My favorite p/$ target from the Chiefs passing game. He’s seen 5+ targets in all but one game and is a bit too cheap at $6,400.
4. Patrick Mahomes / Travis Kelce – I prefer Mahomes in cash games if you can only fit one, but we all know this combo can wreck a slate, and especially one where Pacheco is going to be heavily owned. Both are must haves on any lineup that omits Pacheco.
5. Wilson/Jeudy/Sutton/Trautman – We have to play at least one Broncos player, so Wilson/Jeudy is the highest upside combo, Trautman is a solid value to consider, and Sutton is worth having exposure to in GPPs.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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