Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Prediction & Pick
Broncos vs. Bills Odds
| Broncos Odds | +7.5 |
| Bills Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Date | Mon, Nov. 13 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Denver is fresh off of their bye week and hoping to sustain their recent positive momentum after an upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo has underwhelmed relative to expectations this season and is only 5-4 after last weekend’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bills as 7.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 48 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Denver Broncos
Broncos’ conservative approach leading to offensive success
Per The Athletic, Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown rate since Week 4 at 58.8 percent. However, they have not been getting there due to massive gains through the air. Since losing 70-20 to the Dolphins in Week 3, the Broncos have taken a much more conservative approach to the passing game, which has led to four straight games with fewer than 200 passing yards for Russell Wilson.
Wilson has only 17 pass attempts of 20+ yards downfield across his last five games played, with no more than five such attempts in any individual contest. This is a stark contrast from the Wilson who had 12 attempts of 20+ yards in Week 2 and Week 3 alone.
Taking care of the football and taking the safer underneath throws has been a point of emphasis for Wilson and the Denver passing attack in recent weeks. Expect this strategy to be on display again on Monday.
Denver defense improving
Through the first three weeks of the season, Denver’s defense was responsible for both of the two lowest single-game defensive pressure rates in the NFL. Since that point, this unit has been much improved.
In Week 4, the Broncos finished with a 29.2% defensive pressure rate, which ranked in the top-half of the league. After a down performance in Week 5, Denver increased their defensive pressure rate in three subsequent weeks, culminating in an NFL-best 55.0% pressure rate against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 8.
The Broncos have an extreme rest advantage ahead of kickoff tonight due to a well-timed bye in Week 9. Sean Payton should have this defense ready to play at a respectable level at a minimum on national television.
Buffalo Bills
What to expect from Josh Allen
Depending on how a person evaluates Josh Allen, they could have wildly different conclusions about how well he has played in 2023. Allen enters play tonight ranked second in QBR for the season. Since Week 4, he ranks third in EPA/play, and second in success rate among qualified quarterbacks. However, he has thrown nine interceptions this fall, including at least one interception in each of his last five games played.
The advanced metrics love Allen and the Buffalo offense, but their third-ranked EPA/play and second-ranked success rate since Week 4 hid the fact that they have scored 20 points or fewer in three of their last five games.
There are always good statistics to cite when talking about Allen, but the results simply have not been up to par of late.
Buffalo defense struggling without top players
Buffalo’s defense has been in a complete tailspin since losing linebacker Matt Milano and defensive lineman DaQuan Jones in Week 5. During that stretch, the Bills rank 32nd in EPA/play and 30th in success rate on the defensive side of the ball.
Buffalo has been particularly poor against opposing passing attacks, ranking 30th in dropback EPA/play and 32nd in dropback success rate. According to PFF, the Bills rank 29th out of 32 defense in tackling grade in 2023. Their inconsistent pass rush and poor coverage work in the secondary have only further amplified their defensive issues.
Many people are expecting Buffalo to simply figure things out and return to their typical dominant form. Unfortunately for Bills fans, there are not many reasons to expect that to happen anytime soon.
Broncos vs. Bills – Picks & Predictions
According to Troy Renck, Denver has lost seven consecutive Monday Night Football games dating back to 2017. That streak might end tonight, with Russell Wilson and company traveling to Buffalo to face a Bills defense that has been reeling since losing two of their top playmakers. Though the Broncos are more than a touchdown underdog in this spot, there are arguments to be made that this game should be priced closer to a field goal spread when considering how poor Buffalo’s defense has performed across the last month. Windy conditions figure to make the deep passing game an afterthought in this matchup, which should keep this game from getting out of hand in either direction. If Wilson can take care of the football, expect the Broncos to keep this game competitive, if not win outright.
PICK: Broncos +7.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)