Broncos vs. Chargers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Broncos vs. Chargers Odds
| Broncos Odds | +2.5 |
| Chargers Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 41 |
| Date | Thursday, December 19, 2024 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 16 of the NFL regular season will begin with an AFC West showdown between two playoff hopefuls – the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video from SoFi Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Chargers as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 41 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Thursday home teams are only 46-57-1 ATS (44.2%) in night games since 2019. However, rookie quarterbacks are only 15-25 SU on Thursday Night Football since 2006. Something will have to give from a trends perspective, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix priced as a road underdog.
Denver Broncos Preview
What to expect from Nix, Broncos offense
Bo Nix briefly entered conversations for Offensive Rookie of the Year earlier this season, but that was due more to the overall success of his team than anything he’s done as an individual. Nix has been closer to serviceable than he has been a difference-maker as a rookie, but it’s been good enough to help Denver win games, which is all that truly matters.
Following an underwhelming first 2 games against Seattle and Pittsburgh, Nix has been one of the better game managers in the league this season. Since Week 3, he ranks 18th out of 35 quarterbacks (min. 200 plays) in EPA/play, 21st in success rate, and 27th in CPOE.
The biggest difference between last season’s Denver offense and this season’s version of the team’s passing attack is that head coach Sean Payton trusts Nix in a way that he simply didn’t trust Russell Wilson. Nix has a top-15 aDOT this season, compared to Wilson finishing last season with one of the lowest aDOTs in the entire league. Payton’s willingness to take shots downfield has created a lot more explosive-play opportunities. Denver ended last season with 44 completions of 20+ yards. Nix and company have 44 such completions with 3 regular season games left on the schedule.
Denver’s defensive turnaround fueling run to the postseason
According to Ian Hartitz, from Week 1 to Week 15 last season, Denver’s defense ranked 30th in points allowed per game, 30th in yards allowed per play, 24th in EPA/dropback, and 27th in EPA/rush. During that same time period this season, the Broncos’ defense ranks 1st in points allowed per game, 2nd in yards allowed per play, 1st in EPA/dropback, and 4th in EPA/rush.
Part of Denver’s turnaround is simply attributable to better health. Last season, the Broncos had the 12th-most adjusted games lost to injury on the defensive side of the ball in the entire NFL. This season, LB Alex Singleton is the team’s only starter who has been placed on injured reserve.
If there is any concern for this unit ahead of kickoff, it’s that Denver’s defense has been somewhat reliant on creating turnovers this season to sustain their success. Only 5 teams in the league have more takeaways than the Broncos. Tonight, they could struggle to flip the field in their usual ways, given that Justin Herbert has only 2 interceptions on 399 pass attempts this season.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Herbert struggling?
Justin Herbert is one of the more maligned quarterbacks in the NFL, in part because it’s difficult to agree on how to evaluate his contributions to his team. Most advanced statistics suggest that Herbert has been very mediocre this season. He enters play ranked 18th in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, and 21st in CPOE. However, some pundits will point to his league-best 2 interceptions and argue that his excellent decision-making has helped propel a talent-deprived Chargers offense to an overachieving 8-6 record through the first 15 weeks of the season.
The one thing we know for certain about Herbert, which could impact his team in a negative way tonight, is that he struggles to avoid sacks when opposing defenses get pressure on him. Only 5 quarterbacks (min. 200 dropbacks) have a worse rate of turning defensive pressures into sacks this season, and 3 of those quarterbacks have lost their starting job.
Denver’s defense ranks 3rd in sacks per pass attempt this season and is in the top third of the league in 3rd-down percentage. If Herbert is unable to avoid negative plays, it could put this offense in a tough position to consistently move the chains.
Hart ruled OUT
CB Cam Hart has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Hart, the team’s 5th round selection in this past summer’s draft, played well from Week 6 to Week 11 in a starter’s role but hasn’t seen a normal workload since that point. Since Week 12, the Chargers’ pass defense ranks 26th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. In the previous 6 games, with Hart healthy, this secondary unit ranked 7th in EPA/play and 4th in success rate.
The Chargers could also be without star S Elijah Molden, who is officially listed as doubtful. Molden ranks 6th out of 95 safeties in coverage grade this season, per PFF, and is 3rd on the team in tackles.
Simply, these are two notable losses for this defense.
Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction
The biggest challenge for Denver is likely to be on the offensive side of the ball due to the high rate of zone coverage that the Chargers’ defense deploys. This season, Nix ranks 35th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks in success rate against zone coverage. Nix struggled to a 57.6% completion rate and a 44.2% success rate in Week 6 in his first matchup against the Chargers.
Meanwhile, the biggest challenge for the Chargers is also likely to be on the offensive side of the ball. Much has been made about Herbert taking care of the football at an elite rate this season, with only 2 interceptions, but he’s been more lucky in that regard than anything else. Among 40 quarterbacks with 150+ dropbacks, Herbert ranks 10th in turnover-worthy play rate – still good, but not as great as his surface-level stats indicate. He could have his hands full against an aggressive Denver defense that is playing at an extremely high level this season.
Both of these offenses could struggle to move the football. This is a low total for a game on a short week, but 41 points might still be too much for these two teams.
PICK: Under 41 (-112, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Getty Images