Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
| Broncos Odds | +10.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | -10.5 |
| Over/Under | 47 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 12 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
This evening’s Thursday Night Football matchup will feature the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs in an intra-division affair. Entering play, Russell Wilson and the Broncos are 1-4 at the bottom of the AFC West division. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 4-1 and tied for the best record in the entire conference.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 10.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 47 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson struggling under pressure in 2023
Through five games this season, Russell Wilson has a 71.8% completion rate and a 2.5% turnover-worthy-play rate from a clean pocket, compared to a 56.6% completion rate and a 4.8% turnover-worthy-play rate when under pressure, per PFF. His stark splits are worth noting heading into tonight’s matchup against the Chiefs defense, which has consistently generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks since Chris Jones returned in Week 2.
Denver’s offensive line has been worse than the league average in pass protection so far this fall, which could spell trouble for this offense on Thursday.
Jones ruled OUT for Denver defense
After not practicing on Wednesday, defensive tackle D.J. Jones was officially ruled out for tonight’s game against Kansas City. Though Jones is far from an elite playmaker on the defensive side of the ball, he has generated the fifth-most pressures of any player on the Denver defense through the first month of the campaign.
Also missing from this defense this evening is defensive end Randy Gregory, who was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this week. Gregory was fourth on the team in quarterback pressures through five games this season, according to PFF.
Simply, getting after the quarterback is likely to continue to be an issue for this unit – even more so than it has been during their slow start to 2023.
Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce expected to play, despite ankle injury
Kansas City put up only 20 points in their season-opening loss against the Detroit Lions and 17 points in Week 2, but the offense has performed much better across the last three weeks as Travis Kelce has become healthier. Since Week 3, Patrick Mahomes and company rank 4th in offensive EPA/play and 5th in success rate, using a balanced approach to move the football.
Mahomes has a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span and running back Isiah Pacheco has found pay dirt in three consecutive weeks. Kelce has secured at least six catches for at least 60 receiving yards in three straight games but suffered an injury near the end of Week 5. He did not practice on Monday, but logged a limited participation on Tuesday and Wednesday and is trending toward suiting up on Thursday.
When Kelce is healthy and available, this is one of the best offensive attacks in the NFL.
Chiefs’ defense making life tough on opponents
Since defensive tackle Chris Jones returned to the field in Week 2, the Kansas City defense has been one of the best units in the entire NFL. Across their last four games, the Chiefs rank 5th in defensive EPA/play overall and 4th-best in success rate. This group has been particularly tough against opposing passing attacks in recent weeks, raking 2nd in dropback EPA/play and 2nd in dropback success rate in that span.
The larger concern for the Chiefs is their ability to defend the run. During their four-game winning streak, Kansas City ranks 24th in defensive Rush EPA/play and 21st in success rate. Tonight, this unit could be without edge defender George Karlaftis, who is officially listed as questionable ahead of kickoff. Karlaftis has graded as an above-average run defender at his position so far in 2023, per PFF. This will be an area of the game to watch on Thursday.
Broncos vs. Chiefs – Picks & Predictions
According to industry-leading meteorologist, Kevin Roth, sustained winds of 15-to-20 miles-per-hour are expected tonight in Kansas City, with gusts of up to 30 miles-per-hour. Throwing the football in such conditions is extremely difficult, which means we are likely to see a lot more emphasis on the run and fewer explosive plays. As a result, Denver is well-positioned to be competitive in this contest against a Kansas City defense that has struggled against the run this year. Take the road underdogs and the points to start the week.
PICK: Broncos +10.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)