Broncos vs. Saints Player Props: Three Predictions for Thursday Night Football
What can we expect on Thursday from Alvin Kamara, Spencer Rattler, and Cedrick Wilson? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Thursday, October 17, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresAndOdds.
Week 7 of the NFL season will begin with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video from the Caesars Superdome.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Broncos vs. Saints, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Thursday!
Broncos vs. Saints – NFL Player Props
- Alvin Kamara Over/Under 68.5 Rushing Yards
- Spencer Rattler Over/Under 18.5 Completions
- Cedrick Wilson Over/Under 17.5 Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara UNDER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-120, DraftKings)
The Broncos have a reputation for having a weak run defense, but the advanced numbers actually say the opposite. Entering Week 7, Denver’s run defense ranks 12th in DVOA, 9th in EPA/play, and 9th in success rate. Ever since losing their leading tackler, LB Alex Singleton, Denver’s run defense ranks 11th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate.
This is, at best, a neutral matchup for Kamara. Given that the Saints offensive line ranks 20th in stuff rate allowed this season, it’s difficult to say that any matchup for Kamara is overly favorable. The Saints will be missing 3 starting offensive linemen again in Week 7, which is likely to lead to some efficiency issues for Kamara and the New Orleans ground attack once again.
Spencer Rattler OVER 18.5 Completions (-112, Bally)
Tonight, Denver will be without their top cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. Justin Herbert threw the ball all over the field after Surtain left early in Week 6 due to injury, completing a season-high 21 passes for 237 passing yards and a touchdown. Rattler had an underwhelming NFL debut against the Buccaneers, but that doesn’t mean that New Orleans is going to stop throwing the football. Instead of abandoning the aerial attack, it would make more sense for the Saints to reduce Rattler’s aDOT, giving him more easy completions near the line of scrimmage. Prioritizing the short passing game could also help alleviate any protection issues, given the fact that New Orleans is missing 3 starters on the offensive line. This is good value, especially if the Saints end up in a trailing game script.
Cedrick Wilson OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
The Saints’ active wide receivers tonight are likely to be Bub Means, Mason Tipton, and Wilson. Tipton is a speedster but makes more sense as a deep threat than as a possession receiver. That leaves Means (215 pounds) and Wilson (197 pounds) as the team’s top wideouts. It’s also worth noting that New Orleans has Wilson listed ahead of Tipton on the team’s official depth chart, which isn’t surprising given that Wilson was on the field for more passing snaps than Tipton in Week 6. If New Orleans is forced into a pass-heavy game script, it’s difficult to see a scenario in which Wilson doesn’t get to 20 receiving yards.
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