Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Browns vs. Broncos Odds
| Browns Odds | +1.5 |
| Broncos Odds | -1.5 |
| Over/Under | 37.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 26 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday, the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos will battle at Mile High in Colorado. Entering play, Cleveland has won five of their last six contests to move within a half-game of first place in the AFC North division. Denver has won four consecutive games to pull within two games of first place in the AFC West division.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Broncos as 1.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over / under 37.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cleveland Browns
What to expect from Dorian Thompson-Robinson
In two starts this season, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has yet to throw a touchdown, but he has four interceptions and has taken five sacks against the Ravens and Steelers. This season, Thompson-Robinson has a 61.7% completion rate and is averaging 4.3 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. He owns a 35.0% completion percentage and is averaging only 2.0 yards per attempt when under duress, according to PFF.
Notably, Cleveland’s offensive playbook has been reduced significantly with Thompson-Robinson on the field this year. The rookie signal caller has thrown 56 of his 80 pass attempts within nine yards of the line of scrimmage this fall. Making his first career start on the road, it is likely that Thompson-Robinson is handled carefully again on Sunday against the Broncos.
Denzel Ward ruled OUT
According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, star cornerback Denzel Ward has been ruled out for this afternoon’s action against Denver. Ward has not played at an elite level in 2023, but he is still far better than any backup option the Browns have to insert into the secondary unit.
In Week 10 with Ward not on the field, the Browns allowed 306 yards of total offense to the Ravens in a 33-31 victory. Zay Flowers, Baltimore’s top receiver, had five catches for 73 receiving yards. Denver does not have a strong passing attack, but they could make more of a point to take shots through the air in this one with the Browns’ secondary unit banged up.
Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson, the new dink-and-dunk king of the NFL
Since Week 5, no qualified quarterback has a lower average depth of target than Russell Wilson. Following an embarrassing 70-20 defeat against the Dolphins in Week 3, there has been a clear shift of emphasis offensively for Denver – looking to take fewer risks through the air.
A more conservative approach has been beneficial for Denver’s overall success, helping them to win four consecutive games. From Week 5 to Week 11, the Broncos’ offense ranks only 25th in EPA / play and 24th in success rate, but their ability to avoid costly turnovers and quick three-and-outs has helped the defense flourish.
Denver defense making strides
During the first three weeks of the season, the Broncos had the two single-game lowest defensive pressure rates of any team in any game in the NFL. Fast-forward to Week 11, and the Broncos posted their second top-four finish in defensive pressure rate in their last three games.
Denver has been much more consistent in getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks as the season has progressed, which has helped their overall defensive numbers significantly. From Week 7 to Week 11, the Broncos defense ranked 9th in EPA / play.
Browns vs. Broncos – Picks & Predictions
This contest could shape up to be one of the lowest-scoring affairs of the season to date. The Browns are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is making his first NFL start on the road in his young career. Both Thompson-Robinson and Russell Wilson have been extremely conservative in the passing game, opting for an abundance of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage in recent weeks. Despite cornerback Denzel Ward being out for the Browns, both of these defenses are capable units that should be able to keep the scoring to a minimum. The under has good value at this market number.
PICK: Under 37.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)