Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction & Pick
Browns vs. Colts Odds
| Browns Odds | -3.5 |
| Colts Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 41 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 22 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday afternoon, Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns will travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to play Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts. Entering play, Cleveland is 3-2 but still looking for their first road victory of the season. Indianapolis is 3-3, tied for second place in the AFC South division.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Browns as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 41 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson expected to play
According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, Deshaun Watson is expected to start on Sunday afternoon against the Colts. In her report, she mentioned that Watson “won’t be restricted,” meaning that the entire playbook will be open to him and the offense.
Per PFF, Watson ranks 9th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating this season from a clean pocket, but only 31st in passer rating when under pressure. Last weekend, the Colts generated the third-lowest pressure rate of any defense in the NFL. It was the fourth time in six games that Indianapolis had a defensive pressure rate of 22.2% or less in an individual game.
Assuming Cleveland’s offensive line can handle a mediocre Indianapolis pass rush in this spot, Watson and the offense should be able to play reasonably well despite the rust factor with Watson having not been on the field for a few weeks.
Cleveland defense off to historic start in 2023
Through their first five games of the season, Cleveland’s defense is allowing the fewest total yards per play, ranking 4th in rush yards allowed per play and second in pass yards allowed per play. The Browns rank 2nd in sack rate, first in 3rd down percentage, and have allowed fewer first downs per game than any other defense. The advanced metrics have been just as kind to the Browns, who hold a sizable advantage over all other teams in defensive EPA/play and success rate this year.
Linebacker Sione Takitaki will not play today due to a hamstring injury, but the rest of the defense is healthy and ready to go in Week 7. Expect this unit to have another dominant showing facing a backup quarterback on Sunday afternoon.
Indianapolis Colts
Minshew Mania
Gardner Minshew will start once again for the Colts in Week 7 with starting quarterback Anthony Richardson on the sidelines due to a shoulder injury. According to PFF, Minshew ranks 27th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating so far this season. More notably, Minshew has completed only 51.2% of his pass attempts for 5.3 yards per attempt when under pressure. On 41 such dropbacks, he has a 12.7% turnover-worthy play rate – far from ideal against a Cleveland defense that has not had less than a 30.6% pressure rate in any game this fall.
Starting right tackle Braden Smith will also miss today’s contest, leaving Minshew’s protection weak up front. Smith has been one of the league’s best run blockers in 2023 and is above average as a pass blocker. His replacement, Blake Freeland, is a quality run blocker, but ranks 67th out of 73 tackles in pass blocking grade this year, per PFF. Minshew and the Colts offense could struggle in this one.
Colts secondary unit struggling
Entering play on Sunday, Indianapolis’ defense ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed per play and 25th in first downs allowed per game. Much of their struggles can be tied to an inability to consistently get pressure on the opposing quarterback. This unit was able to get pressure on C.J. Stroud in Week 2, but Houston was missing multiple starters on their offensive line in that game. In Week 5, they had success against a porous Tennessee offensive line, but have otherwise struggled against better pass blocking teams.
If this group is unable to get pressure on Watson on Sunday, they are likely to have a difficult time getting off of the field on a regular basis.
Browns vs. Colts – Picks & Predictions
The Cleveland defense has played at a historic level to begin 2023, and today their offense gets their $250 million dollar man back under center. Though Deshaun Watson has not played at an elite level this season, he is undeniably an upgrade over P.J. Walker, who led the Browns to a victory over the previously unbeaten 49ers in Week 6. If Watson can simply take care of the football in this contest, it is difficult to see Gardner Minshew leading the Colts to a win in this spot. Buy the half-point on the spread to get Cleveland as a field goal favorite on Sunday.
PICK: Browns -3 (-125, Fanatics Sportsbook)