Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Prediction & Pick
Buccaneers vs. Bills Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | +9 |
| Bills Odds | -9 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 26 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 8 of the NFL regular season will begin this evening with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. Entering play, Tampa Bay is 3-3 but tied in the loss column with the NFC South division-leading Atlanta Falcons. Buffalo is 4-3, one game behind the Miami Dolphins for first place in the AFC East division.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bills as 9-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Feiler ruled OUT
Offensive lineman Matt Feiler has been ruled out for Thursday’s contest against Buffalo. Though Feiler has been worse than the league average at his position so far in 2023, he is still a notable loss for this unit, considering the fact that he has taken all 386 snaps at left guard for Tampa Bay in their first six games. Aaron Stinnie is likely to take over the responsibility at the position in Feiler’s absence. Stinnie has played only one snap this fall and only 138 snaps since entering the league in 2018. He is a serviceable pass blocker, but does not inspire much confidence in the running game.
Missing Feiler, expect this offense to prioritize the short passing game, especially across the middle of the field – an area where Buffalo has struggled defensively since losing linebacker Matt Milano to injury.
Vita Vea listed as game-time decision
In their first six games this year, Tampa Bay’s defense ranked 10th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate overall. Their main area of strength is against the run, where they rank 2nd in EPA/play so far in 2023.
However, this area of Tampa Bay’s defense could be down a notch if defensive tackle Vita Vea is unable to suit up. Though Vea has been referred to as a game-time decision to the media, the fact that he did not practice at all this week makes it more likely that he is on the sidelines than on the field on Thursday. Vea has been one of the leagues’ best run defenders again this season, ranking 14th out of 132 players at his position in PFF’s grading system. His loss is a notable absence for this group.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen leads high-powered Buffalo offense
Buffalo enters Week 8 with an underwhelming 4-3 record, but that is not the fault of their offense. According to Aaron Schatz, the Bills ranked 3rd in offensive DVOA from Week 1 to Week 4 (prior to their international trip), and have continued to excel since returning to American soil – ranking 4th in offensive DVOA across their last three games.
Josh Allen owns the 5th-best passer rating of any quarterback in the NFL from a clean pocket, completing 78.4% of his pass attempts and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. Allen has also performed well when under pressure, relative to his peers, ranking 8th in passer rating on 274 such dropbacks.
The biggest problem for this group has been turnovers, especially since their defense has not been making up for the offense’s mistakes in recent weeks. Allen has committed at least one turnover in three consecutive games and already has seven interceptions for the season. This will be an area to watch on Thursday.
Injury-plagued Bills’ defense a concern on Thursday
From Week 1 to Week 4, Buffalo’s defense ranked 2nd-best in DVOA. From Week 5 to Week 7, Buffalo’s defense ranked 28th in DVOA, according to Aaron Schatz. In Week 5, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones both went down with an injury, and neither has played since that point. Milano is one of the most talented linebackers in the entire NFL, and is particularly strong defending the middle of the field against opposing passing attacks. Per PFF, Milano ranked 8th out of 78 players at his position in coverage grade, prior to landing on injured reserve. DaQuan Jones ranked 4th as a pass-rusher and 5th against the run among qualified players at his position at the time of his injury.
In Week 7, only the Las Vegas Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Chicago Bears generated a lower pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks than the Bills. Though it is tempting to believe that a team with championship aspirations, such as Buffalo, can flip a switch and correct these large mistakes – it is highly doubtful that this unit improves much, if at all, while Milano and Jones are on the sidelines.
Buccaneers vs. Bills – Picks & Predictions
Though often overlooked by bettors, special teams are an important factor in determining the outcome of football games, and Buffalo’s special teams unit has been a problem so far in 2023. According to Sal Capaccio, Buffalo ranks 24th in average punt return yardage, 26th in average yards allowed on punt returns and near league average on kick returns. Kicker Tyler Bass has missed three of his 13 field goal attempts this fall, one of which was inside of 50 yards. Buffalo’s defense has been among the worst in the NFL since losing linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to injury. Josh Allen has also been underwhelming against the blitz, which could be a negative factor against the blitz-heavy Buccaneers defense. Tampa Bay has plenty of flaws as well, but not enough to justify such a large spread on a short week. Baker Mayfield and company should be able to cover the spread in this spot as long as they take care of the football.
PICK: Buccaneers +10 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)