Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | +2 |
| Falcons Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Thursday, October 3rd |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 5 of the NFL regular season will begin with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Falcons as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Todd Bowles coached teams are 1-7 SU on short rest, dating back to the beginning of the 2018 season. Kirk Cousins has a public reputation for struggling under the bright lights, but he is actually 8-4 SU in his last 12 primetime starts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Goedeke ruled OUT again
Luke Goedeke will miss his 4th consecutive game due to a concussion. In Week 1, Tampa Bay scored 37 points and led the entire NFL in offensive EPA/play. Since that point, the Buccaneers offense ranks 19th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate. Part of the reason for their recent mediocrity can be attributed to a dropoff in talent at right tackle with Goedeke out. Goedeke allowed a 2.7% pressure rate in Week 1 and a 5.8% pressure rate in 2023. His backup, Justin Skule, has allowed a 6.5% pressure rate since Week 2.
In an effort to mitigate Goedeke’s absence, there was a clear emphasis on Baker Mayfield getting the ball out quickly in Week 4 against the Eagles. His 2.08-second average time to throw was, by far, his quickest average release of the season to date, and it was the quickest average release of any quarterback to take a snap last weekend.
Facing an Atlanta defense that struggles to generate consistent pressure, expect Mayfield to have a low aDOT once again, with the priority being to get the ball out quickly to avoid negative plays.
Tampa Bay defense to be without Hall, Kancey, and Winfield on Thursday
Unquestionably, Antoine Winfield is the most talented member of the Tampa Bay secondary unit. He’s the highest-paid safety in the entire NFL and finished 2023 ranked 1st out of 95 qualified players at his position in PFF coverage grade. He had 7 tackles in Week 1 and was a significant reason that this defense was able to hold the juggernaut Commanders’ offense to only 20 points.
Since Week 2, with Winfield sidelined, the Buccaneers defense ranks only 18th in success rate against the pass and 25th in success rate against the run. Tampa Bay allowed 463 yards to Detroit in Week 2 and 352 yards to Denver in Week 3 before playing an injury-depleted Philadelphia offense in Week 4. The continued absence of 2023 first-round draft pick DT Calijah Kancey and CB Bryce Hall only further complicates things on this side of the ball. Bettors would be mistaken to think that holding the Eagles to 16 points last weekend is a good sign of things to come for this unit.
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Atlanta gets a much-needed boost on the offensive line
Atlanta will get a big boost to their offensive line, with starting RT Kaleb McGary expected to be back on the field. McGary exited the team’s game early in Week 3 due to injury, which also forced him to miss Week 4. McGary allowed only a 3.6% pressure rate in 2023, but his backup, Storm Norton, allowed a 4.5% pressure rate in his absence. According to PFF, Norton currently ranks 67th out of 76 tackles in pass block grade in 2024.
The Falcons offense struggled to consecutive negative EPA/play games without McGary on the field, but they are hopeful that his return can help this unit get back closer to how they looked in Week 2. Starting center Drew Dalman will miss his 2nd consecutive game, but this offensive line is still in the best shape it’s been in since Week 2.
Falcons’ defense to be without No. 1 tackler for division showdown
The biggest issue Atlanta will have to overcome on Thursday is the absence of their leading tackler, LB Troy Andersen. Through 4 games, Andersen has 44 tackles, which is 11 more than any other member of this defense and more than all but 3 defenders in the entire NFL. Andersen has been good in coverage and against the run, making him a notable loss for this defense – especially with LB Kaden Elliss already on injured reserve.
The Falcons will be forced to rely on rookie LB JD Bertrand and LB Kaden Elliss this evening until Andersen is able to return. Bertrand was a 5th-round pick this past summer out of Notre Dame and was described as an “average to below-average athlete for NFL standards” by one scouting report. Starting an undersized rookie alongside Elliss is far from ideal for this defense.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction
Both teams come into tonight’s action with a flurry of injuries, making it unlikely that we see this game turn into a rout in either direction. Atlanta is still missing their starting center, which should limit their ability to execute explosive plays down the field. Tampa Bay is still without their starting right tackle, which means we should see more pass attempts near the line of scrimmage for Baker Mayfield. Expect a competitive, low-scoring affair between these two division foes on Thursday Night Football. Bettors can get a great price on this Same Game Parlay tonight at DraftKings – even more so if choosing to use a boost on this wager.
PICK: Buccaneers +8.5, Under 50.5 – Same Game Parlay (-130, DraftKings)
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