2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:44:19

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

With the PGA Championship one week away, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop at TPC Craig Ranch for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. Scottie Scheffler is unquestionably the feature name in the field, as Jordan Spieth withdrew due to an injury. The field is obviously weaker than that of the Wells Fargo last week without the elevated status. That said, plenty of the golfers in the field continue to battle it out for status, FedEx Cup points, and of course, money. Let’s start with betting odds before previewing the field and TPC Craig Ranch.

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 8th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The AT&T Byron Nelson:

• 2022 – K.H. Lee (-26)
• 2021 – K.H. Lee (-25)
• 2019 – Sung Kang (-23)
• 2018 – Aaron Wise (-23)
• 2017 – Billy Horschel (-12)
• 2016 – Sergio Garcia (-15)
• 2015 – Steven Bowditch (-18)

Without Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler is the prohibitive favorite at the Byron Nelson. A native Texan, Scheffler presumably skipped the Wells Fargo to play his home event ahead of the PGA Championship.

Six of the top 40 golfers in the world will tee it up this week at TPC Craig Ranch. That said, the conversation begins and ends with K.H. Lee. Seeking a three-peat, Lee will defend his back-to-back titles at this event. Per Pat Mayo on DK Nation, Lee has gained strokes on the field in the following categories in most of his rounds over the last couple of years — Ball Striking, 3-putt avoidance, Par 4: 450-500, and Fairways gained.

Can we use K.H. Lee and his profile to help us build a statistical model? Let’s discuss the course before ironing out what stats we want to use this week.

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Date: May 11 – 14
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,468
• Greens: Bentgrass

TPC Craig Ranch hosted a festival of birdies over the past two seasons. We should expect this course to yield a very, very low score with scoring on all four days. Lee won both times with a score in the mid-20’s. This course does not have the teeth to keep PGA Tour professionals at bay.

Rowlett Creek meanders about the course — spanning fourteen different holes in total. That said, the rough is relatively non-existent, and as evidenced by scoring, we should be prepared for the winner to go low.

There are six Par 4’s between 450-500 yards on the course, with two of them being the toughest challenge of them all. As mentioned above, this category is one where K.H. Lee seems to excel — so, we should consider including it with our statistics and maybe giving it a weight bump.

Otherwise, the Par 5’s and short Par 4’s represent premium scoring opportunities. All of these holes offer birdie rates at or around 40% or greater and will be peppered by players all week. We must include BOB% or Par 5 scoring (or both) when we model.

Amongst the top five finishers at this course, SG: Ball Striking numbers seem to be far more important than short-game statistics. Lee gained a few strokes putting each of the last two years but smashed from tee-to-green.

Scottie Scheffler dominates the field in total strokes gained over the last 36 rounds while ranking very, very low in ARG and Putting. This feels like a bit of an abomination unless all of Scottie’s success over the past couple of years can be attributed to getting hot. I don’t think that’s the case. If Scottie is rolling them in, he might run away.

That said, at these odds, this feels like an event to attach ourselves to some value down the board and take advantage of such a one-sided odds board. Jordan Spieth changed the odds with his withdrawal, so most of the value was sucked out of numbers on Monday. Can we find any value elsewhere?

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

K.H. Lee +2200

Clearly, we are not straying too far out on the limb with this blurb. We should watch the guy who won the event in back-to-back years? Hard-hitting analysis…

My thoughts are not regarding K.H. Lee at this price — which I think is not bad considering his form at this course and his recent form. Instead, do we just lock K.H. Lee in for one-and-done and move on to the PGA Championship? Will Lee be the highest-owned player? Will Scottie? If we are behind should we avoid Lee to get different?

I think Lee makes for a fine play as an outright given his aforementioned profile and his success. He feels like a strong matchup play where you can find him across sports betting sites and a fine OAD play. I just wonder if he is too good a OAD play.

Stephan Jaegar +5000

Jaegar Bombs! Jaegar continues to flash form with two made cuts in his last starts (Wells Fargo and Mexico). He made the cut here last year and seems to be at too nice of a price given the field strength.

Jaegar ranks second in the field in GIR and top 20 in both Proximity above 200 yards and P4: 450-500. His profile seems to suggest this would be a good place to chase Jaegar’s first win. After Wyndham Clark broke through last week, the field at this event is far more likely to produce a first-time winner on tour. Will this be Jaegar’s week? If it is, we know how we are going to celebrate!

Sam Stevens +6000

Sam Stevens checks in at a more robust price and he checks several of the boxes we seem to be most interested in. Stevens finished second at Valero a few weeks ago and made the cut last week at Wells Fargo.

Stevens ranks in the top 20 in GIR, Par 5 scoring, Proximity 200+, and BOB%. The man is a birdie machine at a course that requires plenty of birdies. At a far better price, we need to be interested in Stevens this week. He makes for a very interesting top-finisher bet but might be a bit too off the board for OAD.

Dylan Wu +9000

Finally, everything we mentioned about Stevens we can CTRL + C and CTRL + V in this same space. At a far better price, Wu continues to show why he is on the verge of a breakout.

With a 21st-place finish last week, Wu continued his strong form from Mexico (15th). He checks all of Stevens’ boxes but brings far better statistics with the putter and off-the-tee. Wu makes for a very intriguing OAD play because if you get him for a victory, you will probably be the only one. Either way, a cheap outright makes plenty of sense this week. A ladder on Wu makes plenty of sense given his recent form.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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