Byron Nelson PGA Golf Betting Picks — 2021
The Rors returned at Quail Hallow, delivering our second PGA outright victory in three weeks! With that win, we’re finally in the black for the season, up a total of +15.2 units. We’ll try to keep the ball rolling and the putts falling this week, with golf betting picks for the Byron Nelson — oh, and don’t forget to peek at my early PGA Championship picks, too!
With that said, let’s take a closer look at golf betting tips for the 2021 Byron Nelson — the course, field, golf odds, and picks.
Byron Nelson Golf Betting Picks
The Byron Nelson makes yet another move, this time to TPC Craig Ranch, a 7,468-yard par 72 course Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. This course is just a short drive for a handful of golfers who set up shop in the Dallas-Fort Worth area throughout the year. With four par 5s, a drivable par 4, and forgiving fairways, my Byron Nelson golf picks will mainly consist of long hitters, birdie makers, and Texas-area golfers.
Scottie Scheffler 18-1 (BetMGM)
Risking 2u to win 36u
Bomber, birdie maker, and Texan — Scottie Scheffler checks all three boxes. The former University of Texas standout grew up in Dallas before helping the Longhorns win three Big 12 championships. He’s played at TPC Craig a ton as a junior golfer in the area, often competing with Will Zalatoris in fact. He loves this course and should find a way to be in contention come Sunday.
[Bet Scottie Scheffler 18-1 at BetMGM]
Ryan Palmer 40-1 (BetMGM)
Risking 1u to win 40u
These odds are a little short for Palmer, and he’s undoubtedly a pricey PGA DFS play, but I will be playing the Texan everywhere this week. Not only does Palmer enter playing great golf, but he also holds the course record at TPC Craig Ranch. Out of the contenders, there might not be anyone who has more experience at this course, which is making its debut on the PGA Tour.
[Bet Ryan Palmer 40-1 at BetMGM]
Sergio Garcia 50-1 (BetMGM)
Risking 1/2u to win 25u
I really like to play Garcia in windy conditions, but it looks like it will be a calm week at Craig Ranch. Still, Garcia is a Texas transplant, so he likely has some experience here. 50-1 is a fair price, so long as he doesn’t resort to putting with his eyes closed.
[Bet Sergio Garcia 50-1 at BetMGM]
Aaron Wise 70-1 (Unibet)
Risking 1/2u to win 35u
Aaron Wise is wildly inconsistent, but right now he’s playing pretty solid. He missed the cut at Harbour Town, a course that doesn’t mesh with the bomber’s strengths, but he managed to bounce back with a top-10 finish at Quail Hollow last week. Before the RBC Heritage, Wise had made three consecutive cuts. Wise is gaining strokes off the tee, as he always does, and his iron game is in good shape. He’s gained strokes with his approach shots in eight of his last 10 events. The putting has been atrocious, but these greens aren’t supposed to be particularly difficult. I really like betting on Wise’s upside at this venue.
[Bet Aaron Wise 70-1 at Unibet]
Jhonattan Vegas 125-1 (William Hill)
Risking 0.20u to win 25u
Jhonattan Vegas is another Texan we’ll throw into the mix. The Houston resident ranks 5th in the field when it comes to strokes gained off the tee. He’s also 25th in strokes gained tee-to-green and 21st in ball-striking. Where Vegas struggles most is on and around the green. With wind largely out of the forecast, he shouldn’t be scrambling much this week. Let’s just hope his putter can match the Texas heat.
[Bet Jhonattan Vegas 125-1 at William Hill]
Jon Huh 320-1 (FanDuel)
Risking 0.10u to win 32u
This doesn’t have nearly as much to with Huh’s course fit or recent form as it does his price at a specific sportsbook. If we compare his odds across the industry, there appears to be some significant value at FanDuel, where Huh his 320-1 to win the Byron Nelson. Elsewhere Huh is closer to 200-1, and he’s as short as 100-1 at an offshore book that is known to take a ton of sharp action. If you don’t want to bet on this big of a longshot to win outright, then feel free to change it up and bet on him to finish in the top 20, top 10, or top 5 depending on your risk tolerance.
[Bet Jon Huh 320-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook]
Cole Hammer Top 20 Finish, 10-1
Risking 1u to win 10
Here’s a name you probably haven’t heard unless you keep up with college and amateur golf. The 21-year-old comes off one of the biggest golf weeks of his young career, going undefeated to help the U.S. team win the Walker Cup. Hammer is the 7th-ranked amateur in the world and he plays his college golf in Austin. I don’t usually bet on the Longhorns, but I make an exception on the golf course.
[Bet Cole Hammer T20, 10-1 at BetMGM]
2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: +15.2 Units
Image Credit: Imagn