Week 2 Tape Room: Lynch, Foles, Broncos
When it comes to daily fantasy football, it’s often best to be early to a new, promising trend in the NFL rather than being late. Getting a player on your roster before his eventual breakout often results in the lowest price and the highest return on investment.
But sometimes, there are too many reasons to stick with players, even with an increased price. After what we saw in Week 1 from the Seattle Seahawks, Marshawn Lynch is one of those players.
Can We Expect More of the Same from Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle Run Game?
Priced slightly below the top backs this week, Lynch is coming off of a strong opening-day performance against Green Bay. What did he and the Seahawks do against the Packers to keep things fresh and ensure that he’ll have room to run all season?
The “pop pass.”
At first glance, this simply looks like a read-option play from the Seahawks. The offensive line will release to the right, picking up a lineman or stepping up to the second level to help block a linebacker. Clay Matthews will be unblocked, as he’s essentially the “read” in the read option.
But of course, this play wasn’t a traditional read option. Matthews stays at home and doesn’t crash in and leave the left side wide open for a big gain on the ground, and between he and A.J. Hawk, the Packers actually have the running lanes covered pretty well.
The problem is, Sam Shields had his running lane covered well, too. The Packers corner saw the run action from the line and the quarterback and running back, and crashed in to make sure Lynch or Wilson couldn’t get to the edge for a big play. Which led to…
A wide-open receiver for Wilson to throw to for what should have been an easy first down, but which turned into a touchdown thanks to an awful display of tackling from rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
So apart from being an absolutely genius play design by Darrell Bevell and the Seahawks, how does this impact the team moving forward? We saw an example later on in the same game.
On Marshawn Lynch’s nine-yard touchdown run, the Seahawks ran inside zone action yet again, with a little twist that made the play nearly unstoppable.
All of the linemen release right, as they normally do, with an emphasis on the left side of the line to crash defenders in toward the right as they flow that way with the play.
The wrinkle is that the tight end will pull across to the left and take out the normally unblocked backside defender, Matthews. Usually the back and quarterback will make their read off of this player, but on this occasion, he was blocked by the tight end and taken out of the play.
That left plenty of options for Marshawn Lynch, who could either press the hole ahead of him and meet A.J. Hawk one-on-one, or cut back to where Matthews used to be into open space.
That space on the left side is open because the Green Bay defensive backs have to stay with their receivers, in fear now of being burnt by another “pop pass.” That leaves nothing between Marshawn Lynch and the end zone but Clinton-Dix, who missed yet another tackle and allowed the Seahawks to roll on.
Seattle has a date with San Diego this week, who allowed over four yards per carry to the Cardinals and an injured Andre Ellington and a not-very-good Jonathan Dwyer. Expect more of the same from Lynch this week, and at a price that’s lower than some of the top backs on the board.
Will the Real Nick Foles Please Stand Up?
Nick Foles was nothing shy of a revelation last season, taking over Chip Kelly’s offense and posting video game numbers all season. He avoided interceptions and hit big plays on a regular basis, winning year-long and daily fantasy players plenty of cash along the way.
But many experts were predicting a crash back to reality in 2014 for Foles, who seemed to be outkicking his coverage during his breakout season. Those people were proven right after a disastrous first half against the Jaguars, which saw Foles fumble twice and throw an end-zone interception.
Here is one of the fumble plays, which features an even more frustrating element when viewed from the eye in the sky.
Foles has all day in the pocket (relatively speaking) but is looking to his left, where his receivers don’t have a lot of room to work. He’s not looking to his right, where Jeremy Maclin is breaking into open space behind a broken Cover 3 setup by Jacksonville.
The corner doesn’t stick with Maclin and force him inside to the deep safety, who has turned himself toward the quarterback’s eyes and not stayed in position to defend Maclin as he gets deeper.
And instead of stepping up into the pocket and continuing the scan the field to find the open receiver, Foles ducks out of the bottom of the pocket, is sacked, and fumbles.
But then, the second half happened.
As the Jaguars started to self-destruct, the Eagles used their first-half film images to their advantage. They see a look they like, and are able to beat the Cover 3 with Maclin yet again, and on that occasion, Foles finds him for the easy, long score.
He also found Zach Ertz on this beauty of a play…
Foles is quickly able to diagnose the pocket of space behind the linebackers and between the safeties, and starts to throw as soon as Ertz takes his first step past the backers and into the defense’s weak point.
In the first half, Foles looked indecisive and clumsy, but as the game went on, he settled in and began to do the same things we saw last year.
This week, the Eagles play the Colts in what should be the highest scoring game of the week in primetime on Monday night. The Jacksonville defense is more talented overall than Indianapolis, and has better coaching, so expect to see second-half Foles continue his momentum and have a solid day against Indy this week.
Can I Trust the Broncos Stars Against the KC Defense?
Last season, the Kansas City Chiefs defense became notorious as the team started off on an incredible winning streak and surprised most of the league with their play.
Their defense and special teams became a popular pick in both year-long and daily fantasy formats thanks to all of the turnovers their forced and the touchdowns they scored.
So can we trust the Denver Broncos offense against the Chiefs? Are the Chiefs even worth avoiding as the season goes on?
In Week 1 against the Titans, the Chiefs looked downright awful. They gave up an early lead by giving Jake Locker time to throw, and failing to cover his receivers open downfield. Check out this example of one of the big plays the Titans pulled off.
Jake Locker has time in the pocket against a four-man rush, and is able to step into his throw…
And he finds Justin Hunter in a one-on-one against a defensive back who was a step behind and a half of a foot shorter.
This speaks to two major issues with the Chiefs defense as this year kicks off. They must get consistent pressure to “hide” their lack of talent at corner, and on Sunday against Tennessee, they weren’t able to do that often enough. They did bring down Jake Locker four times, but he was also given plays like the one seen above.
And with the Broncos on the schedule next, a team that designs its entire offense around protecting Peyton Manning, expect more of the same in terms of a lack of consistent pressure on the quarterback.
Maybe more concerning for Chiefs fans, and more encouraging for daily fantasy players, was the way the Chiefs were broken down against the run late in the game.
After starting defensive end Mike DeVito and inside linebacker Derrick Johnson had left the game with injuries (injuries that will keep them sidelined for the rest of the season), the Chiefs couldn’t stop the Titans running game and get their offense back on the field to mount a comeback.
As you can see above, the Titans are running a pretty basic lead power run. Running back Bishop Sankey will either play off of his fullback to the outside or inside, depending on how the blocking shakes out.
In this instance, defensive tackle Dontari Poe is forced to the right side at the snap, and the fullback is able to pick up the weakside linebacker coming from that side, allowing an inside lane for Sankey behind his left guard, who has successfully reached the second level to block to Mike linebacker.
The Chiefs basically became a scout team on that play, being blocked just like the play was drawn up on the chalkboard and not shedding away and pursuing Sankey until he earned a first down.
This would happen a few more times as the Titans dominated the ball in the fourth quarter and kept the Chiefs off the field in their attempt to come back and win the game.
And while the Titans were a pleasant surprise in Week 1, they’re obviously not as talented as the Broncos offense led by Peyton Manning. Look for the Broncos to do an even better job of protecting their signal caller than the Titans did, and expect a big day from Manning as he picks apart the struggling corners for Kansas City.
But maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. After starting 2013 with 35 sacks in the first seven games, the Chiefs have since picked up only 16 in their last 10 matchups (including Week 1 of 2014). During those first seven games, they never allowed more than one passing touchdown. But in their last seven games, they’ve allowed 16 passing scores, and seem to be trending in the wrong direction in every way.
Their interceptions are way down, as well, with only six picks in their last 10 games when you exclude a five-interception performance against the awful Raiders in late 2013. The Broncos are not the Raiders, and Peyton will not be making huge mental errors and handing Kansas City any easy interceptions.
Add in the losses in the defensive front seven and their impact on the team’s run defense, and the Chiefs may become a favorable matchup for almost any offense they encounter this season. With games against San Francisco, New England and San Diego within the next month, the Chiefs defense could be one of the worst in the NFL by the time Week 8 rolls around.
So avoid the Kansas City defense in daily fantasy formats, and feel comfortable playing offensive players matched up with them. The Chiefs may go from being a surprise team of 2013 in a good way, to being a surprise team in 2014 for the wrong reasons.