Casing the Joint: College Football Week 2 Betting Lines and Predictions
Welcome to SharpSide.com and the world of legal sports betting, everyone! If you’re anything like me, you not only love betting college football games, but also the analysis and prediction process that comes along with it.
Each week with Casing the Joint, I’ll be breaking down a few of the games I like and providing a few leans I’m siding with, if you need some confirmation bias or something to fade if you think I’m an idiot. As an initial betting tip, always keep in mind that the betting market is alive and changing constantly. Use that to your advantage and don’t force anything. If a line moves out of a bettable range, it’s OK to pass on a game rather than take a bad line. Conversely, a line may take a more favorable move and make it much more bettable.
Feel free to follow me on Twitter at @TheJourdanCase, where I invite you to ask questions, let me know your favorite bets, or just troll all of my bad plays. I’ll be glad to give my opinion on things. Here’s to a fun and profitable season!
Laying the Points
Air Force @ Florida Atlantic University (-8.5)
Florida Atlantic University (FAU) is coming off of an absolute beating at the hands of Kyler Murray and the ever-so-explosive Oklahoma Sooners offense, losing 63-14 in the opener. It’s time to move on from that game, as we can realize they just got beat by a better team. This week, FAU hosts Air Force, who beat Stony Brook 38-0 last week. That seems all fine and dandy for Air Force, until we look a little deeper.
The Air Force offense, which is supposed to be difficult to prepare for, had a bit of a struggle moving the ball and scoring points. The offense itself only scored 31 points on 4.3 yards per carry. Normally, those numbers would be great, but we’re talking about Stony Brook. FAU’s defense wasn’t anything spectacular against the run last year and they won’t be anything special this year, but they will be much better than Stony Brook. I won’t be surprised if Air Force has trouble moving the ball on Saturday.
On the other side, FAU had one of the most potent offenses in the entire country last year and brings back Devin Singletary, who did most of that damage. They averaged a ridiculous 285 yards per game on the ground, while the Air Force defense was a bit of a mess in that regard, allowing opponents to rush for 222 yards per game. I fully expect FAU to control every aspect of this game and for Lane Kiffin to have his boys ready to go in a great bounce back spot.
My prediction is FAU 38 and Air Force 24, with FAU covering the 8.5-point spread.
Kansas @ Central Michigan (-4.5)
Both of these teams struggled last week, but only one was supposed to lose to an SEC team. The other played Nicholls State. Both of these teams mustered up a lousy 255 yards of total offense (weird, right?), but again, one against an SEC defense and one against an FCS defense.
Kansas (KU) coaches are calling in plays late, trying to get defensive substitutions in when the other team is going hurry up, and the operation looks like an absolute abomination of a football team, which we kind of all expected. Central Michigan (CMU) isn’t going to be anything special this year, as they lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball from last year’s eight-win team, but they are definitely more than a touchdown better than the worst team in the FBS on their own home field. Johnathan Ward will bounce back and and have more than 36 yards rushing and the Chippewas will roll over the ‘Hawks.
My prediction is CMU 41 and Kansas 17, giving CMU an emphatic victory and cover.
Duke @ Northwestern (-3)
This line has been bouncing back and forth between 2.5 and 3 since it opened. At the time of writing, it was 2.5. That’s the ticket I have, but I still would bet it at 3, seeing that I think Northwestern (NW) should be closer to a touchdown favorite at home. NW actually got outgained against Purdue last week but still won. Usually those are teams that I like to fade the next week, but I think Duke was also fairly lucky last week.
Duke had all summer to prepare for the option after playing them late in the year last year. That is a huge edge when facing something like an option offense that some teams only see every couple years. They also forced four total fumbles and the yards gained by both teams were pretty similar, so I’d say Duke was fairly lucky to have won that game so handily.
On the other side, we have a Northwestern team that got into a shootout with a very high-powered Purdue offense. DJ Knox and Rondale Moore are two of the most electrifying players in the country and teams will have troubles with them all year. Duke is going to play fast and run the ball a lot (54-46% run to pass ratio last year), which plays right into Northwestern’s defensive strength. Clayton Thorson has another week to get healthy and Duke won’t be nearly as troublesome to prepare for as Purdue was. I’ll happily lay the points on the Wildcats at home.
My prediction is Northwestern 35 over Duke 24, another game in which I also like the over.
Other Favorite Leans
I’m also a fan of Miami OH (-1.5) at home versus Cincinnati and Stanford (-4.5) at home against USC in a battle of two teams ranked in the top 20.
Trust the Dog
Memphis @ Navy (+7)
Navy is another team that struggled to open the season, playing against a Hawaii team that is better than I think everyone in the world expected – myself included. While I think Memphis is going to be a good team this year, I think the wrong team is favored here.
Navy had a lackluster season in 2017, part of that being due to playing Zach Abey over Malcolm Perry. This year, Abey has moved to WR, so Perry gets full control of the team, hopefully. This game frustrated a lot of people last year, as Memphis backers saw their tickets go up in flames when Abey scored a touchdown with 3:25 left to force the game to push. Memphis outgained the Midshipmen in that matchup, but Navy turned the ball over five times and still only lost by three points on the road.
Memphis does bring back 15 starters this year. We all know what we’re getting from that explosive offense, but the defense struggled to stop the run last year, allowing 184 yards per game (314 yards on the ground to Navy). The defense may be improved, but it’s still below average.
We should see a high-scoring affair in this one, but I expect Navy to control the game and actually pull off the upset! As an additional note, I also like the over at anything 72 and below.
My prediction is Navy 41 and Memphis 38, giving the home underdog the win.
Georgia @ South Carolina (+10)
We all know what Georgia is. They’re a powerhouse, an SEC title contender, and a National Championship contender. They have a great defense, an efficient offense, and one hell of a coach. I won’t waste any more of your time talking about things we all already know.
On the other sideline, we have a South Carolina (SC) team that I am very high on this year. Ideally, you all would have bet on SC +13 when the “Game of the Year” betting lines opened over the summer, but if that’s not the case, it’s not too late to get in on what I still think is a bad line. We’re finally getting to see the Will Muschamp defenses that we saw back at Florida and during his days as a defensive coordinator around the country, which we know is going to be a force to be reckoned with. The SC offense is one of the things I’m actually excited about. They have four upperclassmen on the offensive line, a stud (in my opinion) QB in Jake Bentley, and are littered with talent at the skill positions.
My prediction is a tight one, Georgia 21 and South Carolina 17.
Other Underdog Leans
There are a handful of other games with lines that I’m a fan of for underdog sides. Those are Kentucky (+14) on the road against Florida, Kansas State (+9.5) at home against Mississippi State, South Alabama (+32) on the road and getting a ton of points against Oklahoma St., and Northern Illinois (+11) at home against Utah.
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