Casing the Joint: College Football Week 3 Betting Lines and Predictions
Wow, what an inaugural week for Casing the Joint. I’m going to preface this week’s article by saying that last week was fluky.
Nothing made sense, and if you tailed me, we had some pretty bad beats to finish the week 1-4 on posted plays and 2-3-1 on leans. The worst beat of them all was Florida Atlantic, who got a punt blocked and returned for a field goal with 50 seconds left to blow the cover. Northwestern had nine more first downs, 81 more total yards, fewer penalties, more time of possession, and was better than Duke on third downs, but they turned the ball over twice and lost outright. Central Michigan was a dud, as they got blown out Kansas and may have just taken the crown as the worst team in the FBS. Last but not least, Georgia just did some Georgia things and ran the ball down the throat of a good SEC opponent.
Now, no more time for recapping and sulking. It’s on to bigger and better things this week!
Laying the Points
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (-14)
Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET
Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
At the time of writing this, there aren’t many favorites that I like enough to lay their current price, but one that I do really like is Northern Illinois University (NIU) laying two touchdowns against Central Michigan.
As I mentioned earlier, Central Michigan (CMU) got absolutely waxed by the likes of the Kansas Jayhawks, who many people think should just get rid of the football program entirely. CMU turned the ball over SIX TIMES against KU last week and this NIU defense can actually compete with some Power Five teams. We know what we have here at QB in Marcus Childers as a solid Group of Five quarterback. He can control the game against a bad defense like CMU with both his arm and his legs. I think we finally see what this NIU offense is capable of this year, and I think they roll over CMU, just like I expected Kansas to do last week.
My prediction is NIU 35 and CMU 10, a big cover for Northern Illinois.
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (-5)
Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 6 p.m. ET
UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
The other favorite that I like for the Saturday games is Buffalo as a 5-point home favorite against Eastern Michigan. Buffalo is going to be one of the better teams in the MAC this year and should have no problem scoring points with that high-powered offense against a middling defense like EMU. Tyree Jackson and and Anthony Johnson make one of the more prolific QB-WR duos in the country, and the Bulls have a couple of solid running backs to consistently move the ball down the field.
Eastern Michigan got lucky to beat Purdue last week in a game with gross weather, so there may be a bit of a hangover angle to be played here. The offense is the strength of both of these teams, but I think Buffalo has a significant advantage and should win this game fairly handily.
My prediction is Buffalo 34 and Eastern Michigan 21.
Other Favorite Leans
If you’re reading this before Thursday night’s kickoff, I actually like Boston College (-6) a little bit here. The line opened at -4 and jumped to -6 almost immediately. I’d say that even betting it at -7 still has value, but I wouldn’t necessarily advise taking a “bad” line just to have action.
Trust the Dogs
North Texas (+7.5) at Arkansas
Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 4 p.m. ET
Razorback Stadium
Fayetteville, AR
I absolutely LOVE Mason Fine. I think he’s a total stud and I also think that this North Texas team is actually pretty good and very underrated. I’m not entirely sure what we’re going to get out of Fine against an SEC defense, but he has been on a tear against lesser competition, even going back to last year when he set the school record for passing yards and touchdowns.
Arkansas is coming off of a loss to an embarrassingly bad Colorado State team in a game that KJ Carta-Samuels picked apart the Razorback defense for 389 yards and 2 touchdowns. Maybe the altitude had something to do with it, but I think this Arkansas secondary might just be not so great. Two weeks ago, Arkansas gave up 230 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air to Eastern Illinois. I fully expect Fine to have a big day and this game to be a bit of a shootout. I don’t want to be too bullish and call for an outright upset, but I won’t be the least bit surprised if it does happen.
My prediction is a close one, with Arkansas 34 and North Texas 31.
Ball State (+14) at Indiana
Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 12 p.m. ET
The Rock
Bloomington, IN
For me, this bet is a combination of being higher on Ball State with a healthy Riley Neal and a little bit lower on Indiana than the market seems to be. People are still going to think Ball State sucks because of how they performed last year. A 2-10 record and an unbelievably bad point differential on the season won’t inspire hope in many. However, the Cardinals were absolutely obliterated by injuries all throughout the year, starting with losing Neal in the third game of the season when, at that point, they were 2-1 with one narrow loss at Illinois away from being 3-0.
Neal is back and the offense is looking better, but the game against a stout Notre Dame defense makes it tough to gauge what it will really look like this year. Indiana isn’t a team that I’m going to trust this year in big spreads such as the 14 points they’re laying here. They’re a solid team, but they aren’t the type to blow teams out. Give me Ball State and the points in this one.
My prediction is Indiana 31 and Ball State 21.
Ohio State at TCU (+12.5)
Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX
This is the first game without Urban Meyer on the sideline that will matter for Ohio State. It is also not an easy one to stomach as a sports bettor. While I am actually very high on Ohio State this year, I think this is a great spot to bet TCU, as Gary Patterson gives them a huge edge on the sidelines this weekend. I wasn’t surprised when I saw the line open at 10, but when it moved in favor of OSU I was actually shocked. I think this line on a “neutral” (this game is being played in Arlington, about 30 minutes from Fort Worth) field should be around a touchdown.
Shawn Robinson probably isn’t as good as Kenny Hill, but who knows, he might be better; I don’t know if anybody knows if Kenny Hill was actually good or not. This offense under Gary Patterson will still get the job done, though. I do know that Dwayne Haskins isn’t even 75% of what JT Barrett was for this team and this will be the first time he sees an actual defense full of competent players.
Whether you can stomach betting on this game or not, this will be an interesting chess match and a fun game to watch. Ohio State is definitely the more talented team, but 12.5 points are just too many in what is essentially a home game for TCU.
My prediction is Ohio State 35 and TCU 28.
Points, Points, and More Points
I don’t want to go too in-depth when talking about point totals, because these numbers tend to move a lot more than the spreads do as the week progresses and weather situations become more clear. That being said, I’ll give a few of the totals that I bet this week when the openers came out and a quick reason why I bet them.
Georgia State at Memphis – Over 59
Friday, September 14, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, TN
I bet the over in this one and the market hasn’t moved much. With Memphis as such a huge favorite, and the market continuing to move the number higher on them, we really only need GSU to score around 17 points and let Memphis and that explosive offense do the rest. It’s looking like we’re going to have beautiful weather on Friday, and I just don’t see GSU being able to slow down Memphis in this one.
Central Florida at North Carolina – Under 58
Postponed
Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
I bet under 58 here and the market has since pushed the total down a half a point. This one was mostly a combo play between the weather and fading UNC. It looks like rain and 15 MPH winds, which is never good for points. The UNC offense is just miserable. They have one real playmaker in Anthony Ratliff-Williams and a couple decent running backs, but Nathan Elliot is terrible and I just don’t have faith in them to score more than 2 touchdowns against UCF in the windy and rainy conditions.
North Texas at Arkansas – Over 71
Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 4 p.m. ET
Razorback Stadium
Fayetteville, AR
I was a little behind the initial move on this one, as it opened at 69, but I still think the over is good for another 3 points or so. I already mentioned my feelings for Mason Fine and this UNT offense and I think they can easily hang 35 or more on this Arkansas defense. I’ll be looking for a big-time shootout here.
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