Casing the Joint: College Football Week 4 Betting Lines and Predictions
Welcome back! Last week was much better than the one before it, as we didn’t see as many bad beats. I did miss on Northern Illinois (-14), as they allowed Central Michigan to come back from down 21-3. Then, it was just a big whiff on Ball State (+14) against Indiana. If you tailed, we went 4-2 on sides and 1-1 on totals with the PPD game, bringing the season record to 6-7 overall.
This week, we get back in the black! Good luck if you’re tailing!
Laying the Points
South Carolina (-2) at Vanderbilt
Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 4 p.m. ET
Vanderbilt Stadium
Nashville, TN
I don’t like this line at all, but at the same time I really like it. I know that doesn’t make sense, but I’m running with it anyway. I personally think that Vanderbilt is way overvalued by the market right now, while South Carolina, after starting the season a little bit overvalued, has moved to the other side of the spectrum after a disappointing game against Georgia and a bye week.
Vanderbilt beat up on their little brother Middle Tennessee, a not great Nevada team, and got beat in a snooze fest against a Notre Dame team that is viewed as a good team because they beat Michigan. To me, all of the contextual factors surrounding Vanderbilt’s price in this game are just off. Yes, they have a good defense, but are any of their defensive position groups as good as South Carolina’s? No.
On the offensive side, South Carolina is superior in every aspect as well. Vanderbilt’s best player is a receiver and he’d be the third or fourth best option on South Carolina. Add all of the matchup advantages with the fact that Vanderbilt really doesn’t get a home field advantage because they play in Nashville and South Carolina as only a two-point favorite seems too good to be true. I don’t think South Carolina runs away with it, but I think they definitely cover.
My prediction is South Carolina by a touchdown over Vanderbilt, 28-21.
At the time of writing, South Carolina is the only favorite that I would bet. I did play Auburn (-28) earlier in the week, but the line has since moved to (-30) and could go higher. Arkansas is a horrific team.
Other Favorite Leans
Another lean I have involves even more points, with Ohio State (-37) against Tulane. Ohio State showed no mercy to the two slouch teams they played early in the year and I think Urban Meyer, as big of a controversial figure as he is, is a little upset with the media right now and will come out and hang another 50-point win on a hapless team.
Trust the Dogs
Kansas State (+16) at West Virginia
Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
Morgantown, WV
Kansas State getting 16 points is another one that isn’t easy to stomach, but this line is too high. I may be a bit biased as a K-State alum, but that also means I’ve watched years of frustrating football only to be disappointed year after year, so it balances out.
Bill Snyder, even though he’s a walking corpse who has completely let the game surpass him, still finds a way to cover in these games in which Kansas State is supposed to get blown out. It hasn’t been a good season by any means for the ‘Cats, but I’m still not on the West Virginia hype train.
Just two weeks ago, granted it was at home, KSU was a 7-point dog against Mississippi State. If that game were played in Starkville, the line would have been something like 14 points. There is absolutely no possible way that West Virginia is even remotely close to Mississippi State and this line insinuates that they are. This is a big time over correction to a KSU team that has struggled a bit, but always finds its identity. I think this is that week against an overrated West Virginia team who will struggle against a team that is used to seeing the air raid offense. Oh, and for what it’s worth, this game has been decided by a total of 13 points over the last four years with the biggest margin of victory being 6 points. Fade the hype!
My prediction is West Virginia 34 and Kansas State 28, well within the number.
Northern Illinois (+10) at Florida St.
Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
OK, I’m going back to the well on Northern Illinois again this week. I am much higher on this team than the market is, and I’m just fine with that. Last week didn’t go well, as Central Michigan came back from down 21-3 to cover in the fourth quarter. The only unfortunate thing here is that Florida St. played about as bad as an FBS team can play last week, so this line isn’t as inflated as I wanted it to be. However, I have this game at FSU -3 and think the number closes around 7.
I never have and probably never will really respect Willie Taggart as a coach. Quentin Flowers carried him at USF and he was very underwhelming at Oregon. He has loads of talent on this Florida St. team, but they’re just awful as a unit. They’re getting dominated in the trenches by players FSU laughs at when recruiting and Deondre Francois is atrocious. He tried to light a fire under his team by changing the depth chart and “benching” starters against Syracuse and we saw how well that worked out for them. I still think (or maybe it’s just what I want) Marcus Childers is good and this offense can be effective against a lackadaisical FSU defense. The Huskies defensive line is absolutely going to wreck this apathetic Seminole line. Don’t be surprised if FSU gets “upset” again this week.
My prediction is Florida State 21 and Northern Illinois 17. I will have a ticket on the under if the total gets higher than 45, which it looks like it’s going to.
Notre Dame at Wake Forest (+8)
Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 12 p.m. ET
BB&T Field
Winston-Salem, NC
Admittedly, I was very high on Wake Forest coming in to the season, and I still think they’re a very good team. Sam Hartman seems like the real deal and is only going to get better as the season progresses. This weekend, he faces his first big time program, Notre Dame, albeit at home. Hartman has a great offensive line in front of him and a couple awesome safety nets at receiver in Greg Dortch and Sage Surratt. My concern here would be the Wake Forest defense, but I have absolutely no faith in any offense lead by Brandon Wimbush to be successful on the road. This is also a solid look-ahead spot for Notre Dame, as they have Stanford next weekend.
My prediction is a close one with Notre Dame 31 and Wake Forest 28.
Points, Points, and More (or less) Points
Wisconsin at Iowa – Under 43
Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 8:30 p.m. ET
Kinnick Stadium
Iowa City, IA
I love betting unders in the Big Ten Conference. There’s nothing like an exhilarating 17-10 game with 3 points scored in the first half. These two teams both play at a bottom-25 pace and love to slow things down with “smash-mouth” football.
Northern Illinois at Florida St. – Under 45
Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
This total is actually moving up from where it opened and that is baffling to me. Florida State averages 3.9 yards per play against FBS teams. Northern Illinois averages 3.5 yards per play. These numbers are horrible, in case you were wondering. The strength of both of these teams is the defense and I think that shows this week.
I also like the over in the game between Texas Tech and Oklahoma State a tiny bit, but it’s tough to bet the over when the total is 77 points.
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