Casing the Joint: College Football Week 5 Betting Lines and Predictions
It’s safe to say that my 2018 college football season is not off to a hot start. This most recent week, I was just on a couple of bad sides.
Week 4 Recap
Kansas State looked completely helpless, but simply because Bill Snyder is completely incompetent when it comes to situational awareness and play calling. Skylar Thompson had a fine game passing the football, but when it counted, Snyder insisted on running the ball against a stacked box on multiple occasions that cost the team possessions.
Northern Illinois let Florida State march the ball right down the field and score touchdowns on its first two possessions, and it was just ugly from there on out. FSU turned the ball over four times and NIU still couldn’t cover. However, the final score is a bit misleading, as FSU scored a pointless touchdown with 12 seconds left in the game after NIU failed on a two-point conversion earlier in the fourth quarter; another game that was kind of just a couple lucky plays away from cashing.
Wisconsin scored two touchdowns in the final 57 seconds to go over the total of 43, including one 33-yard run with 22 seconds left and a 4-point lead. That one really stings.
Wake Forest got blown out because Brian Kelly finally came to his senses and benched Brandon Wimbush. This news came out after I had written last week’s article and I failed to update it with the news, so that’s absolutely on me. I still didn’t expect a beating of this magnitude to happen, though.
South Carolina came through for us, as did both of the other favorite leans with Auburn and Ohio State both covering big numbers. This is the worst week (1-5, 2-1 on leans) we will have all season and I can promise that. Time to move on.
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Laying the Points
Oklahoma State (-18) at Kansas
Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 12 p.m. ET
Kansas Memorial Stadium
St, Lawrence, KS
Oklahoma State is coming off of an absolute beating at at home at the hands of Texas Tech. They were out-gained by 230 yards, allowed TTU to get 35 first downs, and didn’t score in the second half. This performance coming only a week after they laid the wood on Boise State.
I still think this Oklahoma State offense is very good – much better than anyone expected them to be. As for Kansas, well, they’re still Kansas. Even against a cupcake schedule, KU is only averaging 5.3 yards per play, and that’s with the inflation of 7.5 yards per play over 75 plays against Rutgers. This Kansas team isn’t good and just got beat by an also not-so-good Baylor team. Kansas has no home-field advantage and the stands are empty by halftime. This is a great bounce-back spot for Oklahoma State and what should continue to be a very potent offense under Mike Gundy.
My prediction is a roll by Oklahoma State, 45-17.
Syracuse at Clemson (-22)
Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 12 p.m. ET
Clemson Memorial Stadium
Clemson, SC
Apparently, I’m into laying big numbers this week, but I fully expected this line to be closer to four touchdowns come kickoff. Trevor Lawrence has officially been named the starting quarterback and this makes me so incredibly happy. If you haven’t gotten the chance to watch him yet, please take time to watch the Georgia kid who broke “(player-popup #deshaun-watson)Deshaun Watson”:/players/deshaun-watson-36923’s state passing yards record in high school. The kid has such a pure and beautiful throwing motion that I’m actually getting giddy just writing about him. The offense under Lawrence has been absolutely unstoppable and Syracuse has no chance to do anything of that sort.
On the other side, we have a Syracuse team that has been playing way above their heads. They have looked good, don’t get me wrong, but they have played the 10th-easiest schedule in the country and still have a defense that instills fear in nobody. Eric Dungy is one good hit from one of Clemson’s NFL defensive lineman away from being injured for the 3925th time in his career and there isn’t even a remotely capable backup QB on the Syracuse roster. It’s a big number, but get it while you can because I think it’s only going higher as the limits increase closer to game day.
My prediction is Clemson 49 and Syracuse 21 in this victory for the Tigers.
Virginia Tech at Duke (-5)
Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, NC
Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson is doubtful for this week with an ankle injury he suffered last week against Old Dominion. This leaves Ryan Willis, a guy who couldn’t cut it at Kansas, to start for the Hokies. This does not bode well for an offense that has already struggled to start the year, even with Jackson under center. VT has an uninspiring win against Florida State, a win over FCS William and Mary, and a loss to Old Dominion last week in which they allowed 632 yards and 49 points. What I’m saying here is that Virginia Tech is struggling and Justin Fuente might not be as good of a coach as we thought he was, or at least as I thought.
On the other side, we have a very solid Duke team coached by David Cutcliffe, who I believe is one of the better coaches in the FBS. His teams don’t shoot themselves in the foot with things like big penalties and turnovers. They’re coming off a game against NC Central, so they’ve essentially had two weeks to prepare for Virginia Tech, and they also have a bye week next week. The offense has been efficient this year, averaging 6 yards per play, while the defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns in a game. Let’s also not forget that Virginia Tech has Notre Dame on deck, so this is also a solid look-ahead spot.
My prediction is that Duke gets the win over Virginia Tech, 28-17.
Other Favorite Leans
On Friday night, I like Memphis (-14) at Tulane. Tulane’s defense is very lucky to only be allowing 30 points per game right now. They’ve held one opponent under 449 yards (one more yard out of UAB would have been nice for this statistic) and that was Nicholls State. Last week against Tulane, Ohio State essentially didn’t try in the second half after scoring at will and putting up 42 points in the first half. Memphis is one of the most explosive offenses in the country and should have no problem imposing their will on Tulane.
I’m also leaning Mississippi State (-7.5) versus Florida, and if this one comes back down to 7, I’ll be taking it. Mississippi St. at home and coming off of a loss against a Florida team that has been completely incapable of stopping the run? Sign me up.
Trust the Dog
Ohio State at Penn State (+3.5)
Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 7:30 p.m. ET
Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
This one is really tough to swallow. However, Penn State in Happy Valley is tough to beat. It’s one of the best home advantages in all of sports.
I am very high on this Ohio State team. I think Dwayne Haskins is incredible, they have a stable of consistent running backs, a solid offensive line, explosive receivers, and a lot of talented players on defense, however, the problem here is the defense. The schemes that Greg Schiano is implementing are very complex NFL-type schemes and the Buckeyes are having some issues in the secondary. You’d never know it by looking at the scoreboard, but they are. TCU was the first team that really could exploit them, and they did. Trace McSorley is the best QB Ohio State is going to face all year and I think he is going to pick them apart.
I expect a full-blown shootout in this one, and so does Vegas with a total of 72 being posted on this game.
My prediction is an underdog outright win, Penn State 41 and Ohio State 38.
Other Underdogs Leans
I like a lot of dogs again this week. The number on these games is just a little too short for my liking right now in regards to firing bets, but they’re all worth monitoring. If we get a point or so of line movement on these games, I’ll definitely be betting them.
I am looking at Texas Tech (+3.5) at West Virginia, South Carolina (+1.5) at Kentucky, Oregon State (+21.5) at Arizona State, and Stanford (+4.5) at Notre Dame.
Points, Points, and More Points
Coastal Carolina at Troy – Under 56
Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, AL
Coastal Carolina is most likely going to be without their starting quarterback, Kilton Anderson, for this one as he deals with a foot injury he suffered last week. This leaves true frosh Bryce Carpenter as the starter, who actually looked fairly competent last week in his action.
The angle I like on this game, other than Coastal Carolina being without their starting QB, is the pace of play. Coastal Carolina plays at the third slowest pace in the country, with Troy playing at about an average pace. I expect Coastal Carolina will slow the game down even more than normal with their backup QB and try to control the game that way.
Louisiana Tech at North Texas – Over 65
Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 7:30 p.m. ET
Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
This game is more about me liking the talent at quarterback than anything else. As has been documented in my column before, I love Mason Fine. I think he’s incredibly talented and this offense can hang points on anyone in the country. On the Louisiana Tech side, we have J’Mar Smith, who just threw for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the country in LSU.
Both teams are capable of scoring points in bunches and I think we see a shootout that goes way over the total of 65.
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