CBB DFS Slate Breakdown: Elite Eight, March 30th
Last night’s games were kind of boring – honestly, outside of a couple of exciting games and Alabama’s buzzer beater (that ended up with them losing anyway), this tournament has been a little bit underwhelming in terms of late-game drama. We get two games here that have potential to have some late game drama, but again, both are 7-point favorites like last night. We also have a similar situation in terms of tempo, where one game is significantly better to target than the other. Let’s get into it.
Gonzaga (81), Tempo: 72
The time to use Andrew Nembhard ($5,500) was in the last game against Creighton, as he posted one of his best scores of the season. Will he do it again? It seems unlikely – he never takes double digit shots, and to get to 30 FP he needed to be almost perfect from the field and get a LOT of assists. If I were banking on anyone having a regression performance, it would be Nembhard. Will it matter though? He is the cheapest starter on the highest scoring team in the higher tempo game, and even a 20 FP performance is going to be OK on this slate. Another benefit to Nembhard here is that it is very difficult to score on USC inside, so he may be taking a few extra threes or elbow jumpers in this game which could increase his shot rate. If I were fading him, it would simply be a leverage play in GPPs because of his projected high ownership (he should be around 50% owned at this price I would imagine) and would probably just regrettably play him in cash. If you do not like Nembhard, well Joel Ayayi ($6,500) has seen an incredible price decrease here and is probably a better overall play. Ayayi has been overpriced lately but now projects slightly better in value projections than Nembhard and has a better shot and rebounding rate.