CBB DFS Strategy & Picks: DraftKings Showdown Breakdown - National Championship

It took until the final day of the season, but DraftKings finally posted some large contests for college basketball. I am not a huge fan of showdowns because in a high variance sport the variance is even bigger, but we play what they give us and they gave us some great contests today. It was fantastic writing again this year – thanks for reading and good luck to everyone tonight.

Kansas (78)

The elephant in the room is minutes for David McCormack ($5,800) who I assumed would not play much against Villanova and ended up playing 30 minutes and was a must own on the slate. Will he play that much again? My instincts say yes, as I don’t think that Mitch Lightfoot ($3,600) can hold his own against Bacot in the middle even if Bacot is hobbled a bit by the ankle injury. I think (and I’ve been very wrong before) that McCormack will see close to 30 minutes again assuming no foul trouble. The good thing is that McCormack projects as one of the best values on the slate at 25 minutes, so we have a little bit of wiggle room for him. I’m expecting him to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. If you don’t think McCormack plays, or you think that he gets into foul trouble against Bacot (a possibility), Lightfoot instantly becomes a great play as he would have to fill some of those minutes.

If Lightfoot isn’t your thing, and you still don’t have McCormack, Jalen Wilson ($7,600) is probably someone you need exposure to. Wilson should be one of the highest owned players on the slate as he has solid rates across the board and is actually a better defensive rebounder than McCormack. If David isn’t playing, Wilson has a near monopoly on rebounds, and even if he isn’t scoring he can get to value with peripherals.

I assumed that Remy Martin ($6,600) would see a ton of time in the Villanova game, especially after performing so well in the first part of the NCAA tournament, but he only played 21 minutes and was 1-5 from the floor. Kansas still needs him here, so he’s anywhere from 21 to 29 minutes depending on what happens with the rest of the lineup. Martin is a nice GPP option as he shouldn’t have too much ownership but he does have large upside.

Ochai Agbaji ($8,800) and Christian Braun ($8,200) are again some of the most expensive players on the slate. I don’t hate either guy in GPP, but they have been overpriced for most of the season and are the same here. That being said, it’s not like this is a 2-4 game slate and you have other options – Agbaji and Braun are both likely to score between 25 and 35 FP, and even if their upside is rare with Wilson, McCormack and Martin playing well, they are solid to use here if you have the salary.

Dajuan Harris ($4,000) is the only other option – he’s basically a Jordan Goldwire-style play as he gets most of his FP from steals and assists. He’s a high variance option who likely won’t play a lot, especially if Martin gets time. His minutes are inversely correlated with Martin’s, so I would tend to avoid those two in the same lineup.

North Carolina (74)

Hubert Davis has made it explicitly clear that if he can play his starters – RJ Davis ($7,200), Caleb Love ($7,000), Leaky Black ($5,200), Brady Manek ($8,600) and Armando Bacot ($10,200) the entire game, he would. Puff Johnson ($1,200) is the first guy off the bench, but he’s basically playing 10 minutes per game, and probably would not even get that if UNC goes the whole game without injury/foul trouble. Of course, Bacot’s ankle is relevant here to a point, and Johnson could get a little extra time just because. He’s a very interesting play here as he’s basically free and can allow you to stack your lineup if you use him. He only needs like 10 FP to be an insanely good play here.

Bacot is the top projection on the slate which is no surprise – Kansas doesn’t have the greatest interior defense and if he was fully healthy, he would be a slam dunk no-worry play here. The problem is we do have some concern about his ankle, and with him likely being the highest owned player on the slate (that does have a small little bit of foul risk), there is some merit in fading him especially because you can load up the rest of the team.

I prefer Caleb Love to RJ Davis at this point – Love just takes so many more shots even though he is a bit more inefficient. Davis isn’t likely to repeat his performance from the Duke game in my opinion – he was lights out in the early part of the game and he took more shots in that game than any other game outside of the Baylor game where basically the whole UNC team fouled out and Davis was the entire offense down the stretch. Davis is slightly lower than Love in terms of ownership projection, which makes sense. Both are fine plays here although I give Love just a small little edge.

Leaky Black isn’t a guy who I am going to be captaining, but he’s someone that I think is a pretty nice staple in all lineups. He picks up a ton of peripherals, and we actually saw him be more active in the offense against Duke. The price is still nice here and he provides some very solid salary relief with his 20 FP projection and peripheral stats.

Brady Manek did not look for any rebounds in the Duke game, but he’s been rebounding great in the last two months or so. It might help him that Bacot could be a bit tentative early on the ankle, making Manek able to grab a few extra rebounds before Bacot breaks in that ankle. Interestingly enough, Jalen Wilson has one of the worst DBPR rankings on the team and per EvanMiya.com is the worst defender Kansas puts on the table statistically. Manek disappointed last game, but is primed for a captain spot here.

Matchup

Kansas has been weak defensively on the interior all year, and I expect Manek and Bacot to be able to do a lot of work against them here. They aren’t particularly great at preventing offensive rebounds either, as they are dead middle of the nation in defensive rebounding rate. Bacot, if healthy, could have a field day here (and I think he’s healthy enough). UNC, while getting 50% of their points from inside the three point line, actually gets a relatively large number of points (33%) from beyond the three point arc – they are going to shoot more threes than are likely advised, but the easier matchup for them is going to be in the paint. Both Dajuan Harris and Remy Martin are average defensive players (Harris is at times way too aggressive in going for steals) and this could benefit RJ Davis if he’s more inclined to drive to the hoop instead of shooting threes.

UNC’s main identity is that they don’t foul – they make you beat them by making shots, and they aren’t going to put you on the free throw line. It helps them, because Hubert is playing such a tight rotation that they cannot afford to foul often. It’s remarkable they play such a high tempo (40th in the nation), considering that they don’t force defensive turnovers and they also rebound defensively extremely well. They don’t allow any offensive rebounds as Bacot is arguably the best rebounder in the country (along with Tshiebwe). McCormack gets a ton of his points from offensive rebounds – he’s unlikely to dominate in this game in my opinion, and even though he should get a good number of minutes, I think this matchup is poor assuming Bacot is healthy.

If you look at the individual defensive ratings on EvanMiya.com, the two best Kansas defenders are Christian Braun and Ochai Agbaji – Braun is fantastic – he’s one of the best defenders in the country. McCormack is a little above average, and Wilson/Harris/Martin are average defenders and the weaker parts of the Kansas D. That should allow Manek, Davis, and maybe a little bit of Love to have a slightly better matchup here, and Black to have the worst (likely against Braun). This is interesting, because Black is unlikely to shoot but will pick up peripherals. Advantage UNC here as Kansas’ best defender could be wasted a good amount of the time except for on switches.

UNC’s best defender by far is Armando Bacot, making the matchup for McCormack even that much more difficult, considering the ability for UNC to rebound defensively. Leaky Black is also a plus defender, making Braun’s matchup a bit more difficult. Love/Davis/Manek are all average to poor defenders, but Love has made strides as of late and is obviously not a free pass for Agbaji. The UNC individual defensive ratings here seem to point to a bit Wilson game, and solid performances from Harris/Martin/Agbaji.

Captain Strategy

Despite having a poor matchup on paper, David McCormack’s price is too low, and he has massive upside considering his fantastic rates and the fact that there’s a small percentage chance that Bacot cannot play at 100%. McCormack isn’t a guy I would lock 100% in the captain spot, but I think his upside combined with his lower price makes him a very attractive captain especially in GPP.
Bacot is the obvious choice for top captain – he’s got the highest floor and upside on the slate by far, has a solid matchup on paper and if you think he’s healthy, he could essentially make every other lineup irrelevant if he posts a 90 with the captain’s bonus.

The next tier of captains is Manek/Wilson, who are both likely up against each other – two of the worst defenders on the other side. Both Manek and Wilson have been fantastic in the NCAA tournament and have the best floor/upside combo outside of Bacot. Both guys also would get a boost if their respective 5’s have issues – McCormack with minutes and Bacot with his ankle.

Going a little bit deeper, Agbaji and Love are my next choices for captain, but Agbaji doesn’t have that big of upside because of a lack of peripherals and his price is just so high here. Love takes a ton of shots and even if he doesn’t have that big of peripheral upside, if he makes all of his shots, his scoring upside is off the charts. Agbaji has the higher floor, Love the higher upside and the lower price (I prefer Love as a captain option here).

I think that’s basically where I would stop at captain ownership, as I prefer Love to RJ and don’t think Braun has the necessary upside here against Black to matter in captain. The only other guy I would possibly consider is Remy Martin who could potentially have a monster game at a cheap price.

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