CBB Grind Down: Friday, March 13th

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Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his DFS games, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.

Friday, March 13th

We have a smaller slate for the day games here with a massive one for the night games coming up. Like I have tried before, I will have the later games up in the morning, as the sites do not post the other games until early morning. There are not a lot of teams to target on this slate but the one game I am obviously looking at is the last one

East Carolina at SMU

East Carolina SMU
Vegas Total 127 Fast Break Pts/Gm 4.80 Vegas Total 127 Fast Break Pts/Gm 5.89
Vegas Sprd 13 Paint Pts/Gm 25.20 Vegas Sprd -13 Paint Pts/Gm 24.22
Team Proj. 57 Opponent TOs/GM 13.44 Team Proj. 70 Opponent TOs/GM 13.00
Ast/TO Ratio 95% Field Goal % 44.90% Ast/TO Ratio 114% Field Goal % 48.40%

East Carolina

None – On a six-game slate, it is very risky to avoid a team entirely, but I think we can almost do it with three teams in this slate and I am not joking. There are some really huge favorites here who I would like replacements over rather than the main players from the other teams. SMU is the best team in the conference and ECU is not given a fighting chance in this game as 13-point dogs. If I learned anything by watching the game yesterday, it is that they have no set rotation and they go with the guys who are playing well, which is not a recipe for success in fantasy. I think you could use Caleb White and be OK with it, but anyone other than that I am off.

SMU

Sterling Brown ($5,600) – Brown has been great lately with 20 fantasy points in three straight. He continues to play 35+ minutes in every single game and is out there in a lot of situations to drop into fantasy points. Brown is a cheap here and relatively risk-free as he continues to fill the stat sheet in all three categories. He will luck into at least a few fantasy points because of his minutes, and ECU is an awful team.

Michigan at Wisconsin

Michigan Wisconsin
Vegas Total 120 Fast Break Pts/Gm 5.50 Vegas Total 120 Fast Break Pts/Gm 5.45
Vegas Sprd 12 Paint Pts/Gm 20.80 Vegas Sprd -12 Paint Pts/Gm 28.64
Team Proj. 54 Opponent TOs/GM 8.91 Team Proj. 66 Opponent TOs/GM 9.50
Ast/TO Ratio 138% Field Goal % 43.50% Ast/TO Ratio 156% Field Goal % 49.30%

Michigan

None – Wisconsin is just too good defensively to use anyone here. I like Aubrey Dawkins to have a solid game in this one, but I hate his price and do not think you have to worry about using him today. Dawkins is totally point dependant and a terrible play on a site like FanDuel, especially when not min priced. I will be fading all of Michigan with the low pace and the small Vegas total in this one.

Wisconsin

Frank Kaminsky ($10,400) – It is going to be hard to find the value for Frank today, but like usual, he is clearly one of the top plays on the board. Michigan has absolutely no one who can deal with Kaminsky inside or even on the perimeter. Michigan has no one close who can match up with him and even if they double him he will pass out of it for assists. Kaminsky is a great play anywhere today and even at his advanced price will get you a reasonable floor.

Sam Dekker ($7,100) – I like Hayes as well but Dekker is about the same price and has been more of a go-to offensive player than Hayes has been in the last few weeks. Dekker has had double-digit shot games in the last few and continues to break 20 fantasy points often, getting close to 30 too when he only needs about 26 to hit value. Michigan has been playing a lot faster and this game is sneaky in terms of fantasy value, considering the other games on the slate.

Florida at Kentucky

Florida Kentucky
Vegas Total 119 Fast Break Pts/Gm 5.60 Vegas Total 119 Fast Break Pts/Gm 10.36
Vegas Sprd 13 Paint Pts/Gm 28.40 Vegas Sprd -13 Paint Pts/Gm 34.91
Team Proj. 53 Opponent TOs/GM 11.09 Team Proj. 66 Opponent TOs/GM 12.40
Ast/TO Ratio 115% Field Goal % 45.00% Ast/TO Ratio 150% Field Goal % 47.30%

Florida

Dorian Finney-Smith ($7,900) – In no way would I recommend this pick as a cash game play, as I will most likely be fading Florida in a lot of my rosters. That being said, I do like DFS as a tournament pick because if Florida competes, it will likely be because Finney-Smith is playing like a madman and has a lot of points. He has a massive usage rate lately and is Florida’s best and most trusted player at this point. Finney-Smith will get his opportunities – do you trust him to cash in against the best defense in the last decade?

Kentucky

Karl Towns ($8,100) – We just had this game a few days ago and Towns was one of the best players in that game, the only one to hit over 28 fantasy points. His salary has gone up a ton but you actually have to consider using him. While Florida is known for their defense and their slow tempo this year, I think you can use Towns and be happy with the result today. Like all days with Kentucky, no one is guaranteed minutes, especially Towns because of his foul trouble, but he is one play I would not mind taking here, especially with his block upside.

Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down

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About the Author

Varncass
Jon Schiller (Varncass)

Jon Schiller (aka Varncass) has been providing college sports content for the fantasy industry since 2012 and the sports betting industry since 2022. He’s an analytics junkie who uses any and all predictive stats and game theory to discover edges for the RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds community. Follow Jon on Twitter – @Bronzesword