CBB Grind Down: Friday, March 13th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his DFS games, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Friday, March 13th
We have a smaller slate for the day games here with a massive one for the night games coming up. Like I have tried before, I will have the later games up in the morning, as the sites do not post the other games until early morning. There are not a lot of teams to target on this slate but the one game I am obviously looking at is the last one
East Carolina at SMU
East Carolina | SMU | |||||||
Vegas Total | 127 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 4.80 | Vegas Total | 127 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.89 | |
Vegas Sprd | 13 | Paint Pts/Gm | 25.20 | Vegas Sprd | -13 | Paint Pts/Gm | 24.22 | |
Team Proj. | 57 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.44 | Team Proj. | 70 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.00 | |
Ast/TO Ratio | 95% | Field Goal % | 44.90% | Ast/TO Ratio | 114% | Field Goal % | 48.40% |
East Carolina
None – On a six-game slate, it is very risky to avoid a team entirely, but I think we can almost do it with three teams in this slate and I am not joking. There are some really huge favorites here who I would like replacements over rather than the main players from the other teams. SMU is the best team in the conference and ECU is not given a fighting chance in this game as 13-point dogs. If I learned anything by watching the game yesterday, it is that they have no set rotation and they go with the guys who are playing well, which is not a recipe for success in fantasy. I think you could use Caleb White and be OK with it, but anyone other than that I am off.
SMU
Sterling Brown ($5,600) – Brown has been great lately with 20 fantasy points in three straight. He continues to play 35+ minutes in every single game and is out there in a lot of situations to drop into fantasy points. Brown is a cheap here and relatively risk-free as he continues to fill the stat sheet in all three categories. He will luck into at least a few fantasy points because of his minutes, and ECU is an awful team.
Michigan at Wisconsin
Michigan | Wisconsin | |||||||
Vegas Total | 120 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.50 | Vegas Total | 120 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.45 | |
Vegas Sprd | 12 | Paint Pts/Gm | 20.80 | Vegas Sprd | -12 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.64 | |
Team Proj. | 54 | Opponent TOs/GM | 8.91 | Team Proj. | 66 | Opponent TOs/GM | 9.50 | |
Ast/TO Ratio | 138% | Field Goal % | 43.50% | Ast/TO Ratio | 156% | Field Goal % | 49.30% |
Michigan
None – Wisconsin is just too good defensively to use anyone here. I like Aubrey Dawkins to have a solid game in this one, but I hate his price and do not think you have to worry about using him today. Dawkins is totally point dependant and a terrible play on a site like FanDuel, especially when not min priced. I will be fading all of Michigan with the low pace and the small Vegas total in this one.
Wisconsin
Frank Kaminsky ($10,400) – It is going to be hard to find the value for Frank today, but like usual, he is clearly one of the top plays on the board. Michigan has absolutely no one who can deal with Kaminsky inside or even on the perimeter. Michigan has no one close who can match up with him and even if they double him he will pass out of it for assists. Kaminsky is a great play anywhere today and even at his advanced price will get you a reasonable floor.
Sam Dekker ($7,100) – I like Hayes as well but Dekker is about the same price and has been more of a go-to offensive player than Hayes has been in the last few weeks. Dekker has had double-digit shot games in the last few and continues to break 20 fantasy points often, getting close to 30 too when he only needs about 26 to hit value. Michigan has been playing a lot faster and this game is sneaky in terms of fantasy value, considering the other games on the slate.
Florida at Kentucky
Florida | Kentucky | |||||||
Vegas Total | 119 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.60 | Vegas Total | 119 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.36 | |
Vegas Sprd | 13 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.40 | Vegas Sprd | -13 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.91 | |
Team Proj. | 53 | Opponent TOs/GM | 11.09 | Team Proj. | 66 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.40 | |
Ast/TO Ratio | 115% | Field Goal % | 45.00% | Ast/TO Ratio | 150% | Field Goal % | 47.30% |
Florida
Dorian Finney-Smith ($7,900) – In no way would I recommend this pick as a cash game play, as I will most likely be fading Florida in a lot of my rosters. That being said, I do like DFS as a tournament pick because if Florida competes, it will likely be because Finney-Smith is playing like a madman and has a lot of points. He has a massive usage rate lately and is Florida’s best and most trusted player at this point. Finney-Smith will get his opportunities – do you trust him to cash in against the best defense in the last decade?
Kentucky
Karl Towns ($8,100) – We just had this game a few days ago and Towns was one of the best players in that game, the only one to hit over 28 fantasy points. His salary has gone up a ton but you actually have to consider using him. While Florida is known for their defense and their slow tempo this year, I think you can use Towns and be happy with the result today. Like all days with Kentucky, no one is guaranteed minutes, especially Towns because of his foul trouble, but he is one play I would not mind taking here, especially with his block upside.
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