CBB Grind Down: November 12th
Welcome to the College Basketball Grind Down. Throughout the season I will be breaking down the most intriguing fantasy relevant games for you. During the conference season starting at the beginning of January, we will get this out every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, and an injury report on Mondays and Fridays. During the non-conference, as there is no rhyme or reason to when these games are, the articles will be up on the biggest slate days.
Obviously on certain days, previewing all the matchups is not feasible, so I will pick 8-10 of the most fantasy relevant games and preview them. There are two things to remember about college basketball; first, minutes played is huge just as in NBA, you want the guy who is going to be on the court 30-35 minutes every game. Secondly, tempo tempo tempo is the name of the game. While most NBA games are over/under totals range between 185-205, college games range anywhere usually from 110-180 which is a much larger scope. The hand-check rule has not had as big of an impact as I thought, but scoring is up along with fouls. Here in this article I will list MPG for each player in the projected starting lineup and also the team’s tempo along with the over/under for the game as efficiency matters as well. All of these features may not start out here but I will add tables and update stat colors to make things more user friendly and according to your input as the season goes on.
One of the greatest parts of the beginning of college basketball season is the tip-off marathon. At the time of the DFS games starting tomorrow, 8 games in the marathon will have already been played but do not fret as the best is still to come. The Champions Classic matchups bring us the first marquee matchups of the early season, and boy do they bring it. Michigan State vs Kentucky could be the earliest meeting of a #1 and #2 team ever, and spectacular freshman Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, and Andrew Wiggins will all be in action.
Note: I know this is very boring, bland, and lots of words on the screen. I will have tables and such very soon.
West Virginia T: 65.3
Projected Starters
G – Juwan Staten (40mpg)
G – Eron Harris (39mpg)
F – Nathan Adrian (25mpg)
F – Devin Williams (27mpg)
F – Kevin Noreen (17mpg)
Terry Henderson is looking doubtful for this game as well, so if you can get over the fact that this game may not reach the 70’s you can take a couple of good plays out of it. Juwan Staten has become Huggins’ favorite player and played the entire game against Mount St. Mary’s, along with Eron Harris playing all but one minute. Both WVU guards make terrific plays against the awful Virginia Tech backcourt and will get a ton of minutes. The West Virginia frontcourt is pretty hard to decipher at this time, so I would avoid them all together. Kevin Noreen is the only guy with much experience and got into foul trouble in the last game, so he did not play very much. Even if he stays out of foul trouble, he is not an option. Adrian/Williams/Watkins/Dibo are all freshman who are splitting minutes, avoid all.
Virginia Tech T: 66.9
Projected Starters
G – Devin Wilson (34mpg)
G – Adam Smith (28mpg)
F – Jarrell Eddie (35mpg)
F – Marshall Wood (21mpg)
F – Cadarian Raines (26mpg)
Virginia Tech has had a rough start to the season, getting Barksdale suspended 3 games, along with Marquis Rankin not playing due to “personal reasons”. Their loss to SC-Upstate is not as bad as it appears as SC-Upstate is actually a fairly good team. Daily fantasy wise, the only guy I would really want to play here is Jarell Eddie. Eddie played 35 minutes against SC-Upstate, took 21 shots, 9 3’s and rebounded the basketball. Eddie will have a nice quickness advantage against the inexperienced WVU bigs and I expect a huge game from him. Adam Smith if he is min salary could make value but his upside is limited against the solid WVU guards. The only other player I would consider here is Cadarian Raines as he could very well be Virginia Tech’s best player. Raines had 17-1-4 against SC Upstate in only 26 minutes so if he gets a full run, he could be a great play.
South Carolina T: 66.7
Projected Starters
G – Tyrone Johnson (24mpg)
G – Sindarius Thornwell (26mpg)
G – Brenton Williams (22mpg)
F – Michael Carrera (25mpg)
F – Mindaugas Kacinas (29mpg)
While these 5 might not be the exact ones to start the game for the Gamecocks, they are the 5 most fantasy relevant players. Frank Martin has a very strange way of determining who starts, and while last year I would avoid SC players like the plague unless almost minimum salary, this year could be different. Michael Carrera is one of the most fun players to watch, Kacinas is a great rebounder if he can stay out of foul trouble, and Tyrone Johnson had a great debut. Baylor held Dinwiddie in check the other night surprisingly, and with Carrera most likely matched up against Jefferson for most of the game, this looks like a clear fade today. I do not like any of their players as they are 22.5 dogs to Baylor as I type this up.
Baylor T: 67.8
G – Kenny Chery (35mpg)
G – Gary Franklin (23mpg)
F – Ish Wainwright (13mpg)
F – Cory Jefferson (25mpg)
F – Isaiah Austin (27mpg)
This is the lineup Baylor used against Colorado, and while Austin and Jefferson did not see the floor together for most of the game, they should see more time together in this game as the 2 bigs will create matchup issues for SC and force them to go with a less skilled offensive lineup. I really like Kenny Chery in this game, and his price should be cheap everywhere. Chery has a great matchup in a game which could end as a blowout and stuffs the stat sheet even being so short. Cory Jefferson is a stud and is in play for almost any price. Jefferson should post a double double regularly and if he puts on 20-30 pounds has an NBA body. C-Jeff makes matching up with Baylor a nightmare and he will put up points. Baylor appears to want to go deep this year so other than Austin I might stray away from these guys unless priced really low.
NC State T: 68.9
G – Tyler Lewis (28mpg)
G – Desmond Lee (36mpg)
G – Ralston Turner (17mpg)
F – TJ Warren (37mpg)
F – Kyle Washington (22mpg)
I love using players from NC State as they play one of the more uptempo styles in Division 1 and when their offense is clicking they can put up some monster fantasy points. Kyle Washington is not a fantasy option, but his frontcourt counterpart TJ Warren will lead the ACC in scoring this year. Warren is going to have a ridiculous use percentage and will pick up rebounds. I would even consider playing him at max salary. Warren is almost a lock to take 20 shots per game and pull down 10 rebounds. Up top, Tyler Lewis is also a great play as the point guard, and should get a ton of assists. Ralston Turner, a transfer from LSU, was the one starter who did not get a ton of run because he was in foul trouble, helping out Desmond Lee’s statline. Desmond Lee had 24 points on 12 shots and was very efficient in his opportunities. With Turner not in foul trouble and Lee’s shooting percentage coming back to earth, I would say his 24 points are an abberation and not the norm. I actually like this team if they can get Vandenberg back down low soon and they should outperform expectations this year along with providing the DFS community with some great options.
Cincinnati T: 65.9
G – Ge’Lawn Guyn (23mpg)
G – Sean Kilpatrick (34mpg)
F – Titus Rubles (31mpg)
F – Justin Jackson (21mpg)
F – Shaquille Thomas (11mpg)
This is the lineup that Cincinnati used in their last game, but it appears as if they went away from Shaq Thomas early and used a lot of Jermaine Sanders who got 31 minutes. Sean Kilpatrick is the no doubt #1 option for Cincinnati and makes a great play if you can afford him. Cincinnati wins with grit an agressive defense, and does not play a very uptempo style so fantasy options on Cincy are usually hard to find. Although Kilpatrick is always in play, the only other options I would consider are Titus Rubles and Justin Jackson. Be careful with these guys however, as they have a penchant for foul problems with the aggressive style of defense they play.
Kentucky T: 67.8
G – Andrew Harrison (27.5mpg)
G – Aaron Harrison (27.5mpg)
F – James Young (28mpg)
F – Julius Randle (27.5mpg)
F – Willie Cauley-Stein (19mpg)
The matchup I have been looking forward to for 5 months takes the stage tonight and it’s the age old battle of youth vs experience. James Young has been a bit of a disappointment so far, especially for fantasy as his scoring has been low and he is not contributing in any other ways. I would avoid Young until he proves otherwise, especially since he will draw Dawson who is long and solid defensively. I like Andrew more than Aaron for a point guard play as Andrew should have the ball in his hands more and be able to chip in assists along with some points. Cauley-Stein still has no offensive game whatsoever but if he is cheap and you need center rebounds on a site like DK he is not off the board. The real play here is Julius Randle who has been an absolute beast to start the season. He will face his first test today against Payne and MSU’s rotating 5 man. I would not expect 25-14 again but he certainly is a good bet for a double double and is one of the safest plays out there. Alex Poythress has been playing well off the bench and is also in play tonight.
Michigan State T: 65.8
G – Keith Appling (23mpg)
G – Gary Harris (27mpg)
F – Branden Dawson (24mpg)
F – Adreian Payne (23mpg)
F – Matt Costello (16mpg)
Branden Dawson lost his start last time out but should start this one. Keith Appling is going to play big minutes and makes a speculative play today with all of the options that Michigan State has. The real plays here are Adreian Payne and Gary Harris. Harris is finally healthy and showed what he can do with a healthy shoulder in a 10 rebound performance last time out. Harris is MSU’s most talented player and I love his matchup against the inexperienced Kentucky guards. Payne has a different type of game and as long as he can stay out of foul trouble, I can see 15 and 13 for Payne easy today. Payne will benefit from not having Nix taking his paint touches and rebounds and is in position for a great DFS season. If he is not max salary, he should be. Branden Dawson is also a great play as his explosiveness has returned. Dawson injured his ACL 2 years ago and last year and while he was 100% healthy, he lacked the aggressiveness he had shown freshman year. I love his matchup today against James Young and one of those 3 guys for MSU will have a great game.
Duke T: 68.2
G – Quinn Cook (34mpg)
G – Rasheed Sulaimon (25mpg)
F – Rodney Hood (33mpg)
F – Jabari Parker (23mpg)
F – Amile Jefferson (11mpg)
What an encore to game #1, this game should be just as entertaining as the one before it. This Duke offense is going to be a force to be reckoned with this year. They put up 111 points on Davidson and won by 40, and Davidson is no slouch. Quinn Cook makes a terrific play today and all season running which could be the #1 offense this year. Rodney Hood is going to score a ton of points, however he will most likely be matched up against Wiggins which makes me a bit nervous with his plus defense and huge wingspan. Jabari Parker is a stud and should pick up rebounds along with points and is definitely in play today. Sulaimon is a GPP play as he can get hot and light it up or go cold and completely disappear from the game. Amile Jefferson is not an option I would use, as he just is not good enough to warrant consideration, and will be matched up against the giants of the Kansas front line.
Kansas T: 68.3
G – Naadir Tharpe
G – Wayne Selden (28mpg)
F – Andrew Wiggins (34mpg)
F – Perry Ellis (29mpg)
F – Tarik Black (21mpg)
Naadir Tharpe did not play in Kansas’ first game but returns against Duke. Tharpe is a threat for double digit assists and should show an improved offensive game. Wayne Selden had a fairly poor debut, but his talent cannot be ignored. Andrew Wiggins scored 16 points in the win but only took 9 shots in 34 minutes. For everyone thinking that Wiggins is going to come in and average 20 and 10, the expectations need to be dampened. Self always preaches a team philosophy, and while Wiggins will get his, I think he is overpriced on most sites as his usage rates are not going to be the same as the top salary guys. In my opinion the real guy to own here is Perry Ellis. Ellis is a skilled forward and with a year in Self’s system will know what to do. Ellis is a very safe, high floor guy who is definitely in play even against Parker. I really like whoever plays the 5 for Kansas as well against Jefferson, whether it is Black or Embiid. I think Black gets most of the minutes right away and is the safer play.
Florida T: 66.1
G – Kasey Hill (27mpg)
G – DeVon Walker (17mpg)
F – Casey Prather (34mpg)
F – Will Yeguete (22mpg)
F – Patric Young (20mpg)
With Wilbekin, Finney-Smith, and Harris still suspended for Florida, they actually come into this game as underdogs to Wisconsin. The only player who played particularly well last game against North Florida was Casey Prather, and Donovan was sure to give him the most run. Prather is definitely in play again today against Wisconsin, but like I noted previously, a Wisconsin game usually is not great for fantasy purposes. Kasey Hill is in play as Florida only has 5 guys who are completely healthy and on scholarship. Hill will play PG and should have a similar day to last game (15pts 4ast). I would not use DeVon Walker as he will most likely get subbed out for Michael Frazier and when Frazier starts draining 3’s, Walker may not even top 20 minutes. Patric Young is always a boom or bust play and I do not like him unless he is cheap today. There will be a lot of long jumpshots in this game and rebounds close to the hoop may be hard to come by.
Wisconsin T: 63.5
G – Josh Gasser (35mpg)
G – Traevon Jackson (25mpg)
G – Ben Brust (33mpg)
F – Sam Dekker (32mpg)
F – Frank Kaminsky (23mpg)
Whoever doubts Bo Ryan at this point must have missed the last 10 years. Every time a Wisconsin team is supposed to have a “rebuilding” year, they just play solid plodding basketball and are top 4 in the Big 10. I think they are going to be very good again this year as the return of Gasser really helps along with Dekker being a focal point of the offense. Dekker did not get to show his talents much last year, but he should be a great play anytime out as he can score and rebound and will have multiple double double games. I do not like Kaminsky again playing against Young, but Brust and Gasser should be solid plays against Walker/Frazier and Hill. Duje Dukan played a lot of minutes last game and I would expect him to get them again as neither Brust nor Jackson can match up with Prather. If Dukan is minimum salary or close to it, I would roll him out confidently.
Tennessee T: 65.1
G – Antonio Barton
G – Jordan McRae
F – Robert Hubbs
F – Jeronne Maymon
F – Jarnell Stokes
I have high hopes for Tennessee this year as they get rid of Golden and bring in a better PG in Barton. One of the best scorers in the SEC, Jordan McRae finally has someone to work with. McRae is a threat for 30 and is definitely in play against a somewhat undersized Xavier backcourt. Barton is also in play and should be excited to start out this year at Tennessee with a good game. Jarnell Stokes has reshaped his body in the offseason and although he broke out late last year, he will continue that. Stokes is essentially a double double lock and against an inexperienced Xavier frontcourt really could have his way and is definitely in play today. With so many options on Tennessee I wouldn’t really look at Hubbs or any bench guys for the Vols, even Maymon I will be waiting to see what he does as I expect a bit of rust after a year off.
Xavier T: 66.3
G – Semaj Christon (35mpg)
G – Brandon Randolph (36mpg)
F – Justin Martin (32mpg)
F – Erik Stenger (22mpg)
F – Matt Stainbrook (21mpg)
This lineup is not what we expected to start the season, as there is no Dee Davis due to a concussion and apparently Isaiah Philmore has fallen out of good graces with Coach Mack. Brandon Randolph played very well in the absence of Dee Davis and as long as he is still going to play 30+ minutes makes a fantastic value play. Christon is a great play as well, and if Matt Stainbrook can play 30+ minutes, who knows what he can do in that time. I would not use Justin Martin or Stenger though as Martin did basically nothing on offense last game and I am not sure why Stenger is starting over Philmore.
VCU T: 68.7
G – Briante Weber (25mpg)
G – Rob Brandenburg (18mpg)
G – Treveon Graham (25mpg)
F – Terrance Shannon (23mpg)
F – Juvonte Reddic (18mpg)
When I looked at Draftkings’ pricing for last Friday, one thing really stood out and that was the mispriced prices on the VCU players. I hope they have that fixed as all of them were 3k and complete must plays. It would have been a lot worse had they not blown the doors off Illinois St and most of the starters did not play many minutes. Everyone is in play, especially if your site rewards steals. Treveon Graham and Juvonte Reddic are the 2 best plays, and if they are cheap I would not hesitate to roster either.
Virginia T: 63.1
G – Malcolm Brogdon
G – Joe Harris
F – Justin Anderson
F – Anthony Gill
F – Akil Mitchell
This game is going to be very interesting. On one hand, you have Virginia who is essentially the slowest team in the country. On the other hand, you have VCU who presses and will try to speed you up, so the meta-game battle will be fascinating. Joe Harris is always in play and should post a rebound game from his dud before. Anthony Gill and Malcolm Brogdon both had solid games last time out, but the only one I would consider is Brogdon. If VCU fouls a ton he will be going to the line, and Brogdon has some shooters around him in Harris in Mitchell to get assist. Mitchell had a subpar game as well as Harris but those 2 are the most talented and I would not be worried, even against the VCU pressure D.