CBB Grind Down: Round of 32, Day 2

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Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his DFS games, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.

Sunday, March 22

Michigan State at Virginia

Michigan State Virginia
Vegas Total 116 Fast Break Pts/Gm 11.00 Vegas Total 116 Fast Break Pts/Gm 7.33
Vegas Sprd 5 Paint Pts/Gm 25.20 Vegas Sprd -5 Paint Pts/Gm 30.89
Team Proj. 55.5 Opponent TOs/GM 10.56 Team Proj. 60.5 Opponent TOs/GM 13.00
Ast/TO Ratio 142% Field Goal % 50.40% Ast/TO Ratio 127% Field Goal % 48.70%

Michigan State

None – As much as I really want to use my Spartans today, it would not be a good play. MSU is projected for 55 today which would be lower than basically any other game they have had all season. Even though Dawson is still underpriced, they have three guys who do all the work in Dawson, Valentine and Trice, and as a 5-point dog they do not have much fantasy potential. The upsides are limited here for all of the guys and I really would not think of using Costello or Schilling either.

Virginia

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200) – Brogdon is not one of my favorite plays of the day, but he is going to be low owned and makes a great GPP play. Anderson looked good in the last one, but Brogdon is still going to have a solid usage rate even with Anderson back in play. Brogdon is the go-to player on this team and has been since last year’s march madness. With a total this low, I doubt that there will be ownership, but he has made value twice in a row and actually has a pace up game here against Michigan State. He is not a bad contrarian play.

San Diego State at Duke

San Diego State Duke
Vegas Total 126 Fast Break Pts/Gm 5.44 Vegas Total 126 Fast Break Pts/Gm 9.56
Vegas Sprd 11.5 Paint Pts/Gm 26.67 Vegas Sprd -11.5 Paint Pts/Gm 36.00
Team Proj. 57.25 Opponent TOs/GM 10.22 Team Proj. 68.75 Opponent TOs/GM 13.44
Ast/TO Ratio 64% Field Goal % 40.10% Ast/TO Ratio 180% Field Goal % 53.70%

San Diego State

JJ O’Brien ($6,200) – O’Brien has had one of the best usage rates over the last few games and has been one of the only consistent scoring options for the Aztecs. Actually, he is the only real scoring option in the post for SDSU, as Spencer has no offensive game whatsoever and Shepard has been terrible lately. Duke has an inside defense that can be exploited and O’Brien should be able to get close to value with his points and rebounds.

Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down

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About the Author

Varncass
Jon Schiller (Varncass)

Jon Schiller (aka Varncass) has been providing college sports content for the fantasy industry since 2012 and the sports betting industry since 2022. He’s an analytics junkie who uses any and all predictive stats and game theory to discover edges for the RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds community. Follow Jon on Twitter – @Bronzesword