CBB Grind Down: Sat, Dec 13th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-12-15 20:46:10

Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.

Saturday, December 13th

One of the great things about college basketball is that as the season goes along, each day seems to bring greater meaning and each weekend the games get bigger and more important, culminating in the selection show and best of all the tournament. You can really start to feel it here on a small slate Saturday, but big enough for FanDuel to run two contests, a day and a night slate with at least 5 games on each. If you’re reading this, it’s late Friday or Saturday morning and this is the Early slate. To avoid overloading, I will have the late slate up no later than 12:15pm EST. Let’s have some good picks today and make some money.

North Carolina at Kentucky

North Carolina

Primary Plays

None – Kentucky is one of the best defensive teams that we have seen in college in the last decade. They are absolutely massive and could be the tallest CBB team of all time. (Sorry New Mexico State). UNC’s prices are based on their players scoring 80-100 points every game and there is a legit possibility that they will not break 60 here.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Paige – I even hate to do this considering how terrible Paige has been this year from a fantasy standpoint, but if UNC has any shot, it will be with Paige draining shots from the outside. Kentucky is almost impossible to score on inside, and Paige’s salary at 7,200 is the lowest I have seen for him since his Freshman year. It is a terrible matchup, but a GPP gamble nonetheless.

Kentucky

Note: Last I heard, Ulis and Booker were probable for this game. Make sure to check starting lineups before tip because any news about Calipari’s lineup should help massively.

Primary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns – With Poythress’ ACL tear, and Ulis and Booker spreading their germs all over the locker room, Calipari may be forced to quit the platoon system. In that case, it would be prime time to jump on the cheaper, better players on UK. I think we would see Towns’ minutes go up along with Lyles as well. I love Towns’ athleticism and potential matchup against Brice Johnson. Johnson is too small and although he has bulked up a bit, he is still too thin to deal with Towns in the paint. There is an alternate possibility where Meeks will guard Towns and Cauley-Stein will be on Johnson, which would complicate things.

Trey Lyles – I am not sure where Calipari decides to go with the starting lineup, but one option is starting 6-10 Lyles at the 3. This would pit him against Justin Jackson, who is extremely thin for the position and is used to having a height advantage. I would love Lyles in that case as he is only 5,600 and would have massive upside against the quicker Tar Heels.

Secondary Plays

Willie Cauley-Stein – WCS has been known for his up and down games, massive performances some days and duds on other days. He is overpriced to me here at 8,100 because you’re going to need his 50 point game instead of his usual 20 point game to make value, but if he decides that he is going to play to his potential, he can single handedly win you a GPP. I would not use him in cash games due to the low floor, but his upside is outrageous.

Oklahoma at Tulsa

Oklahoma

Primary Plays

None – A lot of people I feel will gravitate towards the Sooners in this one, so I am going the other way. I do not like any of the starter’s prices and I hate the matchup against Tulsa. Yes, Tulsa just lost to Southeast Oklahoma State, but they still have a solid defense and play at a VERY slow tempo. This game should be close and in the 60’s being at Tulsa, and I prefer to spend on studs elsewhere.

Secondary Plays

Jordan Woodard – Woodard has been not a very big part of the offense lately, but if anyone is to have a breakout game, it might be him. He gets to go up against his brother today, and will definitely have motivation to take some extra shots. He is priced cheaply at 5,800 and although I do not buy into a lot of narratives, I think his usage rate could spike here evidenced by the Tulsa/Oklahoma game last year in which his usage rate was at 30%, and he went off for 24 points and 8 assists.

Tulsa

Primary Plays

James Woodard – As noted above, the Woodard brothers meet today. With new coach Haith, the Golden Hurricane have really slowed things down this year, so I do not expect at 180 point blowout repeat. Woodard has been taking a back seat to Shaq Harrison lately, but is still the better player. I expect him to get his early and often in this one and should provide a 30 fantasy point game against the uptempo Sooners.

Rashad Ray – Ray is the cheapest of the Tulsa guards, but does get to face off against Jordan Woodard today who I expect to be more concerned about scoring. I am not as big of a fan of Woodard’s defense as Hield’s so I give Ray the edge here over Harrison. Ray does not score a whole ton, but playing PG he is able to rack up the assists and sometimes rebound for his short stature. Not my favorite play tonight, but has a solid chance at value.

Secondary Plays

Shaquille Harrison – Harrison has been beasting lately, and I think there is enough possessions in this game to go around between him and Woodard. The Tulsa offense is generated by their guards, so the only real plays when Wright and Smith are priced almost the same as the guards is to go with Ray, Woodard and Harrison. The problem with Shaq is that he most likely will be matched up with Buddy Hield who is a ferocious defender at times. Hield is a big and strong guard with an NBA body who will make things tough for Harrison.

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