CBB Grind Down: Saturday, December 27th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Saturday, December 26th
I hope everyone had a great Christmas and a great break from the daily grind that is CBB DFS. We return today with the marquee game of the non-conference slate in Kentucky vs. Louisville. I know I have been looking forward to this game since the beginning of the season, and it is finally here with both teams undefeated and very impressive. The interesting thing is that while this is the most anticipated game, it is the least fantasy-friendly today. So while your opponents load up on guys to sweat from this game, I would ignore most of the plays from it and just enjoy the game.
Indiana at Georgetown
| Indiana | Georgetown | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 154 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.70 | Vegas Total | 154 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.33 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 3 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.80 | Vegas Sprd | -3 | Paint Pts/Gm | 22.44 | |
| Team Proj. | 75.5 | Opponent TOs/GM | 14.44 | Team Proj. | 78.5 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.00 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 134% | Field Goal % | 50.80% | Ast/TO Ratio | 97% | Field Goal % | 48.80% | |
Indiana
Primary Plays
Yogi Ferrell – Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell has been somewhat inconsistent this year which is not what I was expecting. He has deferred a bit to the Freshman, but it has also made Indiana a bit of a better team with more options. I really like him in this game as Georgetown has actually been worse against guards than they have against forwards this year. I have a feeling we see a lot of Indiana jump shots which bodes well for Ferrell’s scoring totals and his assist totals. He is at a decent price right here and is involved in a ton of Indiana’s possessions. This game should see over 70 possessions giving Ferrell a great opportunity to do damage.
Troy Williams – Williams continues to be 6,000 on FanDuel, which is a nice low price for the run he gets and his involvement in the offense. I do not think we are in store for another 45 point explosion because of the length and solid defenders that Georgetown has on the wing in Hopkins, Trawick and White, but I do think he does have about a 15 point floor with 30 point upside in this game. He is really a price point play as I am not enamored with the matchup.
Secondary Plays
Hanner Mosquera-Perea – I will say this right now – I am not a fan of Hanner’s game at all. I think he is foul-prone, is weak on defense, and often looks lost on the offensive end of the floor. That being said, he has looked a lot better in the last three games game-wise and actually gone over 20 fantasy points in three straight. He gets Josh Smith who is not light on his feet or a great defender and Perea may be able to take advantage of that today. He has increased his block rate in the last few and is looking like a different player, playing almost 30 minutes per game. He is a risky play, but could pay off.
James Blackmon Jr – Blackmon has came back to Earth in the last three games. Usually Freshmen hit the wall, and he could have hit it, however I am expecting somewhat of a bounce back performance. Indiana will be shooting a lot from the perimeter this game as Georgetown will cut off the lanes and there will be a lot of jumpers. Blackmon is a great shooter and should be able to take advantage of a weak Georgetown perimeter defense.
Georgetown
Primary Plays
D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera – Smith-Rivera could be my favorite play on the board today despite his lack of a monster game recently. It could definitely come here against Indiana who has one of the highest tempos and one of the weakest defenses in the country. DSR has one of the highest shot percentages, assist percentages and the lowest turnover rate on Georgetown which makes him a great play on FanDuel. He is a very solid guard and the safest play on the board today.
Josh Smith – Smith may have some issues keeping up with the pace in this game but that should not scare you away from him. He is going to get his looks in the half court set as he has a usage rate of 29% and takes the most shots on Georgetown. He rebounds well and despite his size will play over 20 minutes if he can avoid foul trouble. I love his price at 6,800 and should be given a look today especially against the notoriously terrible Indiana interior defense.
Secondary Plays
Paul White – White is a really nice, tall, lanky forward with solid defense that is going to play a solid part in JT3’s rotation for years to come. White is a reserve but he plays almost as many minutes as Hopkins and is helped by Hopkins propensity for foul trouble. He is a solid low range option today as he is able to run and play the same style as Indiana and definitely could be used extra by Thompson to match up with the smaller Hoosiers. The rest of Georgetown could be in play, but they are so risky that it is hard to justify using them.
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