CBB Grind Down: Saturday, February 7th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Saturday, February 7th
Welcome to Saturday! Always a great time in college basketball as we are winding down the season, and before you know it, we will have conference tournament season and then some massive college hoops tournaments to hopefully take down some big prizes. We have a lot to talk about today, so let’s get right into the analysis.
Baylor at West Virginia
| Baylor | West Virginia | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 136 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 2.44 | Vegas Total | 136 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.20 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.22 | Vegas Sprd | -2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 30.30 | |
| Team Proj. | 67 | Opponent TOs/GM | 11.40 | Team Proj. | 69 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.11 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 113% | Field Goal % | 44.60% | Ast/TO Ratio | 135% | Field Goal % | 40.80% | |
Baylor
Rico Gathers – West Virginia is a strange team who relies on offensive rebounds and turnovers to create their offense. They are terrible in the half court and get their wins by turning teams over and creating extra possessions for themselves. Gathers should be a huge part of this game as he is a beast on the boards both offensive and defensive. He could get a lot of putbacks because WVU really struggles at controlling the defensive glass, where Gathers is the best. With Devin Williams questionable for the game with his illness, I could really see Gathers going absolutely nuts in this one, especially with extra possessions and lots of missed shots.
West Virginia
Devin Williams – Obviously this comes with a disclaimer, as he missed the last game with an illness, so you will have to check his status and make sure he is a full go before putting him in. If he is, his price at $6,400 is a solid price for a guy who can seem to have a 12-point, 15-rebound game effortlessly. The Baylor length really causes problems for opposing guards and there are a lot of tall bodies on the floor for Chery to throw the ball to and break the press. I am not big on either team, but Williams could make a sneaky play.
Illinois at Michigan State
| Illinois | Michigan State | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 136 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 3.70 | Vegas Total | 136 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 11.00 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 8 | Paint Pts/Gm | 27.60 | Vegas Sprd | -8 | Paint Pts/Gm | 25.20 | |
| Team Proj. | 64 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.00 | Team Proj. | 72 | Opponent TOs/GM | 9.70 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 149% | Field Goal % | 44.60% | Ast/TO Ratio | 142% | Field Goal % | 50.40% | |
Illinois
Leron Black – Black is still near minimum price, and if Rice and Cosby are still suspended, he should make a play you will at least want to consider. He is inconsistent in the block but has shown us upside with big minutes. MSU has a solid defense but it is not what it usually is. Black fits the bill of a min price guy with upside who is locked into 20+ minutes.
Michigan State
Denzel Valentine – Dawson’s price has risen to $9,000, and while I still like him at that price, I think he is a little bit more expensive than I would like. His last two games were great matchups against teams who had no answer but with Black and Egwu, I think the Illini can somewhat stop him. Instead, I will go with Valentine, who has made up for some of the slack of Trice struggling. Valentine has massive upside with his rebound assist and point potential and with all of the big three highly priced, I will pick Valentine as the guy who succeeds today.
Tennessee at Georgia
| Tennessee | Georgia | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 127 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.71 | Vegas Total | 127 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 8.00 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 11 | Paint Pts/Gm | 25.71 | Vegas Sprd | -11 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.63 | |
| Team Proj. | 58 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.25 | Team Proj. | 69 | Opponent TOs/GM | 11.57 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 83% | Field Goal % | 44.10% | Ast/TO Ratio | 112% | Field Goal % | 48.10% | |
Tennessee
None – This team is run by Josh Richardson, who has the highest usage rate and is one of the only reliable players on the team. They are away at Georgia, who has a solid defense and is projected to beat Tennessee handily. I really do not want to grab any guys on Tennessee here as they are unreliable and not likely to have any upside.
Georgia
Yante Maten – This pick hinges on the health of Marcus Thornton. While Houston Kessler got the start at Kentucky, it was Maten who was the real gem, doing work inside against the Kentucky bigs and posting a solid stat line against the best interior defense in the country. He should be able to replicate that for $4,800 today against Tennessee as long as Thornton remains out. The last report I saw was that they are “hopeful” Thornton is cleared today but that he had not been cleared to practice yet.
JJ Frazier – I will give Frazier a pass against Kentucky, because not many people succeed against that defense. He is still $6,500 here which is too cheap for a guy who really has a 25-point floor in a decent matchup with upside for 35-40 points. Frazier should be right in that 25-35 point range again today against Tennessee who is decent defensively but no Kentucky. Frazier has been a solid cap saving option lately and while his price is a bit higher, it still is not where it should be.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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