CBB Grind Down: Saturday, January 10th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Saturday, January 10th
A 10 game slate today, and FanDuel went to the DraftKings style of picking slates by only choosing top 25 teams. While the early game slate is massive, I tend to want to have more and more games to choose from in a player’s point of view, but as a writer’s point of view, the shorter slates are better because I can break down the game more than I would be able to if there were double the amount of games.
Ohio State at Indiana
| Ohio State | Indiana | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 157 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 12.78 | Vegas Total | 157 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.70 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.67 | Vegas Sprd | 1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.80 | |
| Team Proj. | 79 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.00 | Team Proj. | 78 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.44 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 137% | Field Goal % | 53.30% | Ast/TO Ratio | 134% | Field Goal % | 50.80% | |
Ohio State
D’Angelo Russell – My decision today is would I rather pay up for a Providence guy or pay up for Russell. Russell went absolutely nuts in the first half against Minnesota and I think we could see that same type of thing happen here. Ohio State should reach 80 in a game against the defensively challenged Hoosiers and makes the best play on Ohio State. Two reasons that I could see fading him today are price and the fact that Indiana just gives it up inside. Russell needs about 38 for value, a number he just reached in his last game. Indiana only allows 24% of their points against to come from the 3 point line, so it may be better to invest in a bigger OSU player. Russell does have a better shot at value on FanDuel because of his steals.
Sam Thompson – A much more consistent option than Williams, I think Thompson is going to be called on to do a lot of work in the paint. I do not like Williams’ price too much with his inconsistency, otherwise I would be all over him today. Matta obviously knows that Indiana gives up a ton of points in the paint and will try to stuff it in there with Thompson and his post players is my guess. Thompson’s price is right on DraftKings and he could be good value today.
Amir Williams – I really dislike Williams price, but I cannot help but think that he is going to be decently owned today. Everyone knows that Indiana gives it up inside and this is the best matchup he has had inside in a while. He was able to play fairly well in the last game against Mo Walker and will get the majority of the minutes inside today. Risky, but the reward is large.
Indiana
Yogi Ferrell – This matchup sets up extremely well for Ferrell. Indiana is a jump shooting team and Ohio State gives up 36% of their shots from behind the arc, and does not usually foul. The Indiana shooters are going to be able to get off shots, and with two high pace teams going at it, will have some opportunities to get it in transition. Ferrell has been disappointing lately, but with Blackmon’s struggles lately is still the alpha dog and should prove so today.
Emmitt Holt – Trying to predict what coaches do is sometimes a losing effort, but it is clear that Crean is not happy with Mosquera-Perea’s effort inside. The fan base is clamoring for more Emmitt Holt, which actually happened in the last game against MSU despite miserable results. Holt would make a solid play at min-price if he grabs the start, but I would not expect too much from him as the Indiana perimeter will do most of the scoring. Still, it should be noted that he has a shot at this game.
Kentucky at Texas A&M
| Kentucky | Texas A&M | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 124 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.36 | Vegas Total | 124 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.78 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -14 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.91 | Vegas Sprd | 14 | Paint Pts/Gm | 36.22 | |
| Team Proj. | 69 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.67 | Team Proj. | 55 | Opponent TOs/GM | 11.09 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 150% | Field Goal % | 47.30% | Ast/TO Ratio | 132% | Field Goal % | 48.80% | |
Kentucky
Aaron Harrison – Harrison played 40 minutes in the last game against Ole Miss so I think we are seeing the end of the platoons. The shot making brother is clearly the most trusted guy by Calipari right now and he is getting the most run because of it. He has nice upside for 6,100 today even against Texas A&M and is someone whose minutes will be solid unless of a blowout (somewhat likely) and/or foul trouble.
Willie Cauley-Stein – Cauley-Stein still has the most upside of any of the Wildcats on FanDuel because of the blocks and steals. His price has come down a bit after his monster 50-point performance and he is getting as much run if not more than Aaron Harrison. These are the two guys that I would expect to see on the court a lot and have the most chances to contribute.
Texas A&M
None – I will continue my quest to fade all of Kentucky’s opponents this year. Jones is injured and his status is in question, House was awful in the last game, Caruso does not have anyone who can make shots and Kentucky happens to be the best defense we have seen in a long time. No thank you.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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