CBB Grind Down: Saturday, January 17th (Early)
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Saturday, January 17th (Early)
The College Basketball season just keeps heating up. Today we have a great slate of games started by one of the highlights of the year, Duke against Louisville. Unlike the Kentucky/Louisville game, we should see a good number of points in this one and could very well see the Dukies take their third loss in a row which is unprecedented territory. FanDuel has reduced the number of games in the early slate to 8 for convenience, so let’s get to it.
Duke at Louisville
| Duke | Louisville | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 143 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 9.56 | Vegas Total | 143 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.78 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 36.00 | Vegas Sprd | -5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 33.78 | |
| Team Proj. | 69 | Opponent TOs/GM | 14.33 | Team Proj. | 74 | Opponent TOs/GM | 10.22 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 180% | Field Goal % | 53.70% | Ast/TO Ratio | 91% | Field Goal % | 44.00% | |
Duke
Jahlil Okafor – Even against Harrell and Louisville, his price at 9,000 is in my opinion too low. His bottom floor is right around 25 points in this one with a more likely outcome around 35. It is hard to grab a guy of this talent and consistency at a bargain, as most of them are priced too high but Okafor has stayed at this price. I do not expect Louisville to double him like Miami did, and we could see a monster game.
Tyus Jones – Relegated to a GPP only play, Jones has been miserable lately. He has 30-point upside still and is very cheap for a starting point guard on one of the best teams in the country. With his recent struggles in conference play, he is no longer a plug and play at that price, but a GPP gamble who could pay off.
Louisville
Montrezl Harrell – Many might stray from him due to his struggles recently, but I am not. Duke’s interior defense is poor as usual, and with the likes of Thomas/Abu/Anya/Jekiri tearing them up inside recently, I think Louisville establishes the post early and often in this game. My theory is that Harrell shows up for big games, and this one is much different than the Kentucky game due to the matchups.
Terry Rozier – Rozier STILL managed to hit 20 fantasy points only playing 19 minutes against Virginia Tech. His price at 8,000 is affordable considering he has performed like a top salary guard this year. There should be a good amount of points in this one and Rozier is the stud guard from Louisville that I want on my roster because he does a bit of everything.
Virginia at Boston College
| Virginia | Boston College | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 113 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.33 | Vegas Total | 113 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.00 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -13 | Paint Pts/Gm | 30.89 | Vegas Sprd | 13 | Paint Pts/Gm | 31.56 | |
| Team Proj. | 63 | Opponent TOs/GM | 14.56 | Team Proj. | 50 | Opponent TOs/GM | 10.56 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 127% | Field Goal % | 48.70% | Ast/TO Ratio | 84% | Field Goal % | 44.30% | |
Virginia
Malcolm Brogdon – Brogdon has not been the consistent beast that we saw last year because Virginia has a lot more options on the offensive end, but he is cheap, efficient, and he has played well recently. I hate just ignoring players from Virginia, but they should dominate a poor Boston College team wire to wire. Brogdon is a risk and I am not building my team around him, but he should be considered.
London Perrantes – Aside from the 40-point explosion against Miami, Perrantes usually does not do much. That being said, he is min salary here for a point guard who is going to see his usual 30-35 minutes of work. A lot of players can luck into value being min salary and seeing that many minutes, and with Perrantes on a good team, we see what can happen if he takes shots. I am expecting around 12 points which is not a killer for a min-salary guy, but he will have to outperform that to win you any GPPs.
Boston College
None – As usual, we are ignoring the team against Virginia’s pack line defense. This should be a blowout in Virginia’s favor and even with Hanlan, there will be no easy shots and the tempo is going to be somewhere in the 50’s. There just won’t be any easy opportunities to put up fantasy points.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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