CBB Grind Down: Saturday, March 7th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-03-09 23:00:08

Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his DFS games, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.

Saturday, March 7th

With conference tournaments for the smaller schools in full force today and the first few conference championship games tipping off, we have the last regular season Saturday of the year for DFS college hoops. There are a lot of games at noon today and not a lot later, but we do have the rematch of one of the best games of the year later in Duke and North Carolina.

Pittsburgh at Florida State

Pittsburgh				Florida State
Vegas Total	133	Fast Break Pts/Gm	7.33	Vegas Total	133	Fast Break Pts/Gm	3.78
Vegas Sprd	1	Paint Pts/Gm	19.33	Vegas Sprd	-1	Paint Pts/Gm	27.33
Team Proj.	66	Opponent TOs/GM	13.22	Team Proj.	67	Opponent TOs/GM	11.44
Ast/TO Ratio	142%	Field Goal %	44.60%	Ast/TO Ratio	84%	Field Goal %	47.20%

Pittsburgh

None – Pittsburgh is a dog here and with their best players, Young and Artis, both at $8,000, I am not finding room for that salary to fit into my lineups with the other, better plays later. Yes, FSU is somewhat uptempo with a poor defense, but Pittsburgh still will struggle to break 70 on the road here and I think we could see some disappointed Artis users. I do not hate him, I just do not think those guys will hit value, and with Young taking a massive increase in price, he is a fade as well. None of the other Pitt guys are consistent.

Florida State

Xavier Rathan-Mayes ($7,700) – I like him only as a GPP play today. XRM has one of the hottest hands in the game when he’s firing and I think he could catch fire in this one. He is generally around the 20-25 fantasy point area, unless he’s going off, which is why I would ignore him in cash games but sprinkle him into a few tournament lineups. This is not one of my favorite games to target, but Pittsburgh’s defense is fairly poor and Rathan-Mayes could get hot.

Syracuse at North Carolina State

Syracuse				North Carolina State
Vegas Total	134	Fast Break Pts/Gm	9.00	Vegas Total	134	Fast Break Pts/Gm	10.30
Vegas Sprd	6	Paint Pts/Gm	33.33	Vegas Sprd	-6	Paint Pts/Gm	20.20
Team Proj.	64	Opponent TOs/GM	10.90	Team Proj.	70	Opponent TOs/GM	13.56
Ast/TO Ratio	111%	Field Goal %	44.10%	Ast/TO Ratio	107%	Field Goal %	45.30%

Syracuse

None – Anyone else surprised to see Syracuse as a six-point dog here? I think they are starting to break down late in the season with no postseason aspirations and the starters playing basically 40 minutes each game. I think NC State really comes out and pounds them at home today and that not a lot of the high priced guys like Gbinije and Christmas will hit value. They do have the upside that they will continue to play all of the minutes and get the opportunities, I think there are better options out there around the same price range though.

North Carolina State

Ralston Turner ($5,700) – I like Lacey, as well, who I think is underpriced and will have a bounceback game, but I also think that Turner makes great value today. You will need some value to succeed, and at $5,700, Turner provides some much-needed value. Turner has been at 20 fantasy points for the last four games, and actually hit 30 in the last game, which is great for his salary point. He is a big part of this offense right now and will continue to play major minutes as long as he plays well. His rebounding from the last game is a bit unsustainable, but against the Syracuse zone, he should shoot his way to a 25 fantasy point game with his 24% shot percentage and 38% make rate.

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