CBB Grind Down: Sunday, January 11th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Sunday, January 11th
We have one of the most uninspiring slates of the year today. There are a ton of low scoring games in this slate, and a couple of blowouts. If you are looking for a solid day of CBB like yesterday, it probably is not coming today but there are definitely some interesting matchups with tournament implications that could surprise us. As always, there is money out there so let’s get to it.
Duke at North Carolina State
| Duke | North Carolina State | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 146 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 9.56 | Vegas Total | 146 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.30 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -10 | Paint Pts/Gm | 36.00 | Vegas Sprd | 10 | Paint Pts/Gm | 20.20 | |
| Team Proj. | 78 | Opponent TOs/GM | 10.90 | Team Proj. | 68 | Opponent TOs/GM | 10.22 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 180% | Field Goal % | 53.70% | Ast/TO Ratio | 107% | Field Goal % | 45.30% | |
Duke
Tyus Jones – Duke as usual is going to have one of the biggest over/unders of the night and on this night even though they are not projected to score 90, they are going to be some of the best plays on the board. Jones is still 6,100 and even though he has struggled lately, I am still going to be high on using him today. He will get his points and has 30 point upside for cheap. With Winslow’s price rising, he is the cheapest way to get solid exposure to the Blue Devils offense.
Jahlil Okafor – Wake Forest enacted a very solid strategy which held Okafor to a modest point total although he was still able to grab a double double. He is literally the safest play you can roll out there today and for 9,000 there are enough value plays to use him. North Carolina State has a decent interior defense but for Duke’s star, he is matchup proof.
North Carolina State
None – Duke is a solid team, and while they are not great defensively, they can shut down anyone on the perimeter at any time. NC State relies on the perimeter and I think this is a terrible matchup for them. It is hard to predict their post minutes so I am avoiding them here.
SMU at UCF
| SMU | UCF | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 134 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.89 | Vegas Total | 134 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 6.33 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -10 | Paint Pts/Gm | 24.22 | Vegas Sprd | 10 | Paint Pts/Gm | 18.89 | |
| Team Proj. | 72 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.89 | Team Proj. | 62 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.44 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 114% | Field Goal % | 48.40% | Ast/TO Ratio | 97% | Field Goal % | 45.30% | |
SMU
Nic Moore – SMU has one of the higher over/unders today, and are playing a defensively inept UCF team. With Kennedy back in the fold for real now, it should open up the perimeter for Moore. Moore is a three point distributor and shooter and should be glad to have his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal today. His price has risen a bit but I still think he should be good for a 30 point performance today.
UCF
Brandon Goodwin – It is hard to argue with what Goodwin has done recently for the Knights. On an NBA team, one would chalk it up to a good night and continue to play with the same pecking order in the lineup. On a college team trying to find it’s identity coming off a massive away win which a player established himself? I am not so sure. Goodwin could have just made himself the #1 option on a UCF team looking for options and if he did, his price is still way too cheap across the industry for a team who wants to push the pace. I am pressing here and not expecting 40, but looking for 25.
B.J. Taylor – Brandon Goodwin has gotten all the press lately and rightly so. If you believe that the guy who has taken the most shots in the previous games is going to continue that, it is a nice spot to buy low on B.J. Taylor. The Freshman was the #1 option on the Knights until Goodwin’s explosion and should continue getting shots, although I think his upside is now capped. I would roll Goodwin as #1 and Taylor #2.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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