CBB Grind Down: Sunday, March 1st
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Sunday, March 1st
I hope everyone is ready for another long day of basketball after the great Saturday that we had. During this time of year, the hoops just do not stop. There is a lot of money out there right now, and with the sites pushing prize pools right now at times you can find a little bit of overlay as well. Let’s get to it.
SMU at Connecticut
| SMU | Connecticut | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 125 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.89 | Vegas Total | 125 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.14 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 24.22 | Vegas Sprd | 1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.57 | |
| Team Proj. | 63 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.71 | Team Proj. | 62 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.44 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 114% | Field Goal % | 48.40% | Ast/TO Ratio | 93% | Field Goal % | 45.00% | |
SMU
Sterling Brown ($5,400) – Brown is a decent value here on FanDuel. He plays almost the entire game and despite the opponent, continues to put up 20 plus fantasy points per game. There is nothing flashy about Brown’s game but he puts himself in good situations to get the job done and should be considered, even at UConn.
Connecticut
None – I just cannot do it here. I know that Hamilton has been so good at rebounding and packing the stat sheet lately, but I just cannot bring myself to pay up for him at that price on either site. SMU is so good defensively inside and has a plethora of solid defensive wings along with being the best team in the AAC that UConn has the probability of getting blown out in this one. I will let everyone else chase the Hamilton and Boatright points and go elsewhere today.
South Florida at Houston
| South Florida | Houston | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 130 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 6.56 | Vegas Total | 130 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 4.33 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 6 | Paint Pts/Gm | 27.11 | Vegas Sprd | -6 | Paint Pts/Gm | 22.00 | |
| Team Proj. | 62 | Opponent TOs/GM | 15.00 | Team Proj. | 68 | Opponent TOs/GM | 15.89 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 80% | Field Goal % | 47.90% | Ast/TO Ratio | 86% | Field Goal % | 39.50% | |
South Florida
Troy Holston Jr ($5,300) – I normally would not target South Florida, but Corey Allen has been deemed ineligible for the next six games and someone has to take the 30% of shots that he was taking while on the floor. Holston is the most obvious answer at that position, as he has been playing some 2 with some 3 mixed in while being a pure SG. Holston has continued to almost make value at this price point and with some extra shots, should be a lock to hit value today.
Houston
Jherrod Stiggers ($6,200) – Stiggers took over the point guard spot left by LJ Rose’s injury, and while Cavon Baker may be the more pure point guard, Stiggers’ minutes are more set in stone. It is not an easy transition to starting PG especially against a top 10 defense in the nation, which should make Stiggers an attractive option today as this will be his second game at point and South Florida is one of the worst teams in the conference. I like Stiggers today and think he has massive upside with a pretty high floor.
Danrad Knowles ($6,200) – With Perry out and Allen out, South Florida’s defense has absolutely no one who can stop any sort of scoring from a competent player. Knowles can shoot the ball and I would expect him to get a lot of opportunities today. Knowles had a bummer game against USF the last time they played, but I targeted him then and I am targeting him now because I truly believe this is a great matchup for him.
LeRon Barnes ($5,600) – Fresh off a 30 point fantasy game with no LJ Rose, Barnes should again play 40 minutes in this one. The entire Houston starting lineup is in play today as they are all cheap and all should produce against a USF team who is terrible and is missing their two best players. Target this one and hope to get it right.
Oregon State at California
| Oregon State | California | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 111 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 3.89 | Vegas Total | 111 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.20 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 18.67 | Vegas Sprd | -1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 29.20 | |
| Team Proj. | 55 | Opponent TOs/GM | 10.60 | Team Proj. | 56 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.00 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 109% | Field Goal % | 44.20% | Ast/TO Ratio | 144% | Field Goal % | 45.90% | |
Oregon State
None – I am seeing better value on Houston here honestly, and would rather use a few of those guys than someone like Payton or Duvivier. This team plays so slow and Payton takes up so much of the usage that I really do not want to use these guys.
California
None – Bird’s explosion in the last game has risen his price and Wallace is still one of the stop salary guys. They now get to play Oregon State who is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and one of the slowest. There is basically zero chance that this game goes above 135 and none of the Cal players have a big upside here, even Wallace. Fading Oregon State games works out really well and it should again today.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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