CBB Grind Down: Thursday, February 26th

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Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.

Thursday, February 26

Short slate for NBA? Hop on over for some college basketball action. We have a long slate tonight with a lot of low scoring games,so it should be very interesting. I think the way to go tonight is to take the players who are going to get you that floor of points, as I do not see the winning scores being all that great. This is an interesting slate, so some of the teams we would usually ignore are in play because of the low scoring potential today.

Houston at Temple

Houston Temple
Vegas Total 124 Fast Break Pts/Gm 4.33 Vegas Total 124 Fast Break Pts/Gm 5.30
Vegas Sprd 14 Paint Pts/Gm 22.00 Vegas Sprd -14 Paint Pts/Gm 24.80
Team Proj. 55 Opponent TOs/GM 11.00 Team Proj. 69 Opponent TOs/GM 15.00
Ast/TO Ratio 86% Field Goal % 39.50% Ast/TO Ratio 97% Field Goal % 36.20%

Houston

Cavon Baker ($4,500) – I am looking at Baker here and really wondering if I want to take him. The injury to L.J. Rose has opened up an opportunity for a point guard to get minutes on this team, and I am not certain that Wes VanBeck is the answer, as he is a walk-on and timid with the ball. Enter Cavon Baker, who played point guard earlier in the season when Rose was out and played pretty well. The problem here is that Baker has just returned from suspension, has not had much practice time or game time in the last month, and may not get all the run I think. Another complicating factor is that Temple has a top five defense nationally and does not play fast by any means. The good part of it though is that Houston seriously has no other reliable player to run the point, so Baker is going to have to do it.

Jherrod Stiggers ($6,200) – I think this is a game that Bond absolutely dominates inside, so I am going to want the Houston perimeter attack, as that is how they go about scoring points. Stiggers and Barnes are the only two healthy scoring guards and Stiggers may end up running the point at times today. He is cheap at $6,200 and usually takes close to 10 threes a game. Keep in mind that Houston is most likely going to lose by around 20 in this game, so his upside is limited.

Temple

Will Cummings ($7,600) – Certainly affordable today, Cummings offers $9,500-type upside for only $7,600. Houston’s defense all around is awful, and Temple is one of the highest scoring teams today. Cummings has a great steal rate, he assists and is very involved in the offense, so he makes a fantastic play at guard on this slate.

Jaylen Bond ($7,200) – I would like him a little bit cheaper considering the fact that he cannot shoot free throws and opposing times like to mug him when he gets the ball. That being said, he is almost a guarantee for a double double tonight against a Houston interior defense which is made of toothpicks and scarecrows. Bond dominates inept frontcourts, and this is a perfect opportunity for him to do so tonight.

Minnesota at Michigan State

Minnesota Michigan State
Vegas Total 138 Fast Break Pts/Gm 9.50 Vegas Total 138 Fast Break Pts/Gm 11.00
Vegas Sprd 10 Paint Pts/Gm 30.70 Vegas Sprd -10 Paint Pts/Gm 25.20
Team Proj. 64 Opponent TOs/GM 13.00 Team Proj. 74 Opponent TOs/GM 14.30
Ast/TO Ratio 138% Field Goal % 48.00% Ast/TO Ratio 142% Field Goal % 50.40%

Minnesota

Andre Hollins ($7,500) – There is not a lot to like here for the Gophers. I do think that Walker is a bit underpriced, and you could do worse than Buggs at a min price forward play, but Hollins really brings the only upside to the team. This may be the highest over/under game of the night, but I am not seeing a piece of Minnesota I really like. Both teams have been extremely slow lately and I think this game ends with a lower total than we expect. Hollins is everything for this Minnesota team and is working his way up to a 30% usage rate. He takes a ton of shots, and when he is rebounding he has massive upside. MSU is getting better but has been weak at closing out on 3-point shooters this year.

Michigan State

Branden Dawson ($9,500) – Dawson is arguably your top play of the day here. If you can fit his $9,500 salary, he has a great chance for a monster game. Walker will most likely be guarding Costello/Schilling, so we could see a lot of Joey King/Charles Buggs on Dawson. Dawson has the strength to dominate King and the quickness to power past Buggs in the post, along with block and steal upside. MSU has the highest total on the board and is at home, so the Big 3 are all in play.

Denzel Valentine ($8,300) – I do like Trice in a way, but I cannot bring myself to take a guy who is going to miss the first five minutes of the game at that price. Trice has produced lately but I feel like the better play is Valentine, who has a higher upside and a higher floor than trice for only $300 more. I do not see a player on Minnesota with the strength to match up with Valentine, as Morris or Hollins is going to have to do the defending. With the highest over/under, I think Valentine is a great play today if you can fit him in.

Matt Costello ($4,700) – Costello is not the greatest play but for almost min salary brings you 20-point upside if he is playing well. He still splits time with Schilling, so minutes are a concern, but at min price for the highest scoring team of the night I do not think you can just ignore him here. Costello blocks shots at times and plays well around the rim and this could be a game where he hits 20.

Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down

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About the Author

Varncass
Jon Schiller (Varncass)

Jon Schiller (aka Varncass) has been providing college sports content for the fantasy industry since 2012 and the sports betting industry since 2022. He’s an analytics junkie who uses any and all predictive stats and game theory to discover edges for the RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds community. Follow Jon on Twitter – @Bronzesword