CBB Grind Down: Thursday, February 5th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Thursday, February 5th
Thursday in CBB is usually the calm before the storm, as we usually have a decent slate before the Saturday chaos hits. There are always some late games to keep us entertained as the evening progresses, and tonight is no exception. We have some really high scoring games and then some really low scoring games which should make for some decent overlap, so picking the high scoring guys is really going to be critical.
Tulsa at Houston
| Tulsa | Houston | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 130 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.00 | Vegas Total | 130 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 4.33 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -6 | Paint Pts/Gm | 19.70 | Vegas Sprd | 6 | Paint Pts/Gm | 22.00 | |
| Team Proj. | 68 | Opponent TOs/GM | 15.00 | Team Proj. | 62 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.60 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 79% | Field Goal % | 41.40% | Ast/TO Ratio | 86% | Field Goal % | 39.50% | |
Tulsa
Shaq Harrison – Houston is just not a good defensive team, and despite winning a couple of their last two games, I think Tulsa will take this one fairly easily. The Golden Hurricane are on some sort of roll right now, albeit lucky in a few games, but Harrison is the best player on the team and loves to drive and score. Houston’s bigs are more perimeter oriented, so they will space the floor well providing room for Harrison to drive on every possession. There are other ways you could go, like Rashad Smith (or if you are feeling really lucky, Swannegan) but I think Harrison has the highest upside and the highest floor.
Houston
Danrad Knowles – Houston is not a good team, but Chicken Knowles is the best player and he is priced cheaply at $5,700. He had a string of not going under 20 points snapped against UConn but could definitely go over it again today. He has block upside in the right situations which would be this one with Tulsa’s smaller frontcourt, and even though Tulsa has a solid interior defense, I will not get too bent out of shape because Knowles likes to troll the perimeter.
Iowa at Michigan
| Iowa | Michigan | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 122 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 9.00 | Vegas Total | 122 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.50 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.18 | Vegas Sprd | -2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 20.80 | |
| Team Proj. | 60 | Opponent TOs/GM | 9.50 | Team Proj. | 62 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.64 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 128% | Field Goal % | 42.00% | Ast/TO Ratio | 138% | Field Goal % | 43.50% | |
Iowa
Aaron White – White had a strong game against Wisconsin coming back from his shoulder stinger, and should be full strength here for the game at Crisler. I really like his matchup against the weak Michigan frontcourt, although Bielfelt has done an OK job of defending the paint. He is no world beater though and White has the skill and know how to get easy layups in the two-point area. His price has dropped a bit at $7,400 and while this should be a lower tempo game, the matchup is right for him to have a high usage, and to be efficient with that usage.
Michigan
Spike Albrecht – Albrecht is one of five Wolverines today that are in play. FanDuel is much slower than DraftKings to adjust prices so we can grab 30-minute starters here at almost min salary. With Walton out, Albrecht continues to run the point and has nice 25-point upside. He is fairly safe as he can contribute in all categories.
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman – I am calling him MAAR just because it is much easier than continually typing out his name. Anyway, MAAR is locked into 30+ minutes with all of the injuries and appears to be gaining confidence with every passing game. Michigan has actually been better since losing their stars, improving 20 spots in the KenPom.com rankings. They are a favorite here and I would expect MAAR to have a huge role for a very cheap price.
Aubrey Dawkins – Dawkins may be my least favorite of the four Michigan min-price guys, but he has probably the highest upside. He stands around the three-point line and with a solid three-point stroke, can go off at any moment. The problem is, he only takes 17% of the shots while on the floor and does not do much else. I would save him for a GPP play.
Max Bielfeldt – I am not going to include Irvin here, although I do like him at $6,300. Irvin is the go-to guy on the team with the injuries and should be a solid play today, but my prerogative is that I am going to get value with Michigan and spend up elsewhere. Bielfeldt has been incredible since getting 30 minutes per game and really in my opinion should have been starting since the beginning of the year. He is the safest points per minute guy but he is also risky because Donnal could return from his injury which would cut into his minutes. I am using caution with him unless we can get Donnal out confirmation or Bielfeldt starting confirmation.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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