CBB Grind Down: Thursday, January 15th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Thursday, January 15th
Tonight is definitely an interesting night in college hoops, and it’s one that you will want to stay up the whole night watching. The most entertaining games are the late Pac-12 ones, and none of the big tournaments are going to be decided until those are finished. There are some injury concerns to monitor today and also some solid defensive teams playing at home and areas that you cam most likely just ignore.
Auburn at Florida
| Auburn | Florida | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 124 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 1.75 | Vegas Total | 124 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.60 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 12 | Paint Pts/Gm | 12.25 | Vegas Sprd | -12 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.40 | |
| Team Proj. | 56 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.40 | Team Proj. | 68 | Opponent TOs/GM | 14.75 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 65% | Field Goal % | 40.10% | Ast/TO Ratio | 115% | Field Goal % | 45.00% | |
Auburn
None – Florida is starting to get their mojo back, and due to their struggles Donovan is playing at a super low pace with solid defense. This is an Auburn team that really struggles to score at times when Harrell is not making shots and Bowers is not getting anything inside and I think they are going to have major issues with Florida’s solid interior defense and slow tempo. Bowers has been a boss this entire year, but I think he is a fade tonight away from home. If Florida is able to keep Auburn off the free throw line, they should win this handily.
Florida
Eli Carter – Carter has noted that he is starting to feel healthy again which is great news for the Gators. Carter is one of the best scorers in the game when healthy and proved that last game against Mississippi State leading Florida in scoring. His minutes will continue to increase as long as he stays healthy (knock knock) and he should provide solid value at his price points across the industry tonight.
Dorian Finney-Smith – With the return of Horford this week, it is getting harder and harder to trust Florida players who are not cheap. The go-to guy at this point appears to be DFS as he has gone over 20 fantasy points in 8 straight with upside. He does it from the perimeter and rebounds well, and should have his way with an Auburn team who has no matchup for him. His price is expensive though, so I would watch out.
Cincinnati at Memphis
| Cincinnati | Memphis | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 119 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.13 | Vegas Total | 119 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 8.38 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.75 | Vegas Sprd | 1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 33.00 | |
| Team Proj. | 60 | Opponent TOs/GM | 16.50 | Team Proj. | 59 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.88 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 88% | Field Goal % | 41.80% | Ast/TO Ratio | 72% | Field Goal % | 42.50% | |
Cincinnati
Octavius Ellis – Ellis, while not as strong or thick as Justin Jackson, is trying to take over the freak athlete block monster inside presence role that Jackson had last year. He is a very poor man’s Justin Jackson but he has been consistent inside for the Bearcats. While Memphis should give Cincinnati a bit of a tempo bump, KenPom has this game projected at 63 possessions which is just what Cincinnati has been playing at lately. I still like Ellis here as he is cheap on DraftKings, has block upside on FanDuel and is consistent.
Memphis
Trahson Burrell – Forward on FanDuel tonight is a spot that I am looking for value from. Arguably the top plays of the night are at the guard spot, and are all fairly expensive so I am going to try to find myself some forward cheap guys. Burrell has been consistent all year for Pastner’s crew and despite a silly one-game suspension for sportsmanship issues pre-game, is good to play a solid number of minutes and contribute in all areas. The Cincinnati matchup scares me, but Memphis has been playing lower tempo for about a week and a half now and his salary is super low at 5,300.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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