CBB Grind Down Tournament Edition: Friday
After a long hard day of basketball, upsets, lots of emotion, joy and heartbreak, we go to bed, only to get up and do it all over again the next day. The great part of the tournament is reaching the end of the first day and thinking, wow, there is still another day of madness left. Half of the people have been eliminated from the survivor events on FD and DS so it’s time to put together another great roster to make it past another round.
Even though Vegas lines are still up, I have used the KenPom.com rankings the whole year so I will continue to use those here. While yesterday was chock full of super fast and super slow games, none really in the middle, today we have a bunch of middling games which should result in more roster variation and a better game overall. Let’s get right to it.
Mercer 67 vs Duke 79
Duke
Lots of people are looking at this game and thinking that Duke might be ripe for the picking here. Yes Mercer is good, but I’m not seeing the vulnerable giant with Duke. The Blue Devils have too good of an offense to stay stagnant for long and they can continue to give the ball to Jabari Parker in crunch time and let him get buckets. Parker has a really nice matchup today as Mercer’s defensive weakness is inside and that’s where he does his best work. I like his matchup but he’s not an auto play. I think Rodney Hood could struggle a bit as Mercer is solid on the perimeter and really does a nice job at limiting jump shots. Jakob Gollon and Bud Thomas are two big wings who can effect his shots. It’s really hard to find anyone outside of those two who is worth using. Amile Jefferson is probably the only other one I would consider although he may end up against 6-10 Daniel Coursey. Quinn Cook is completely untrustable right now in DFS.
Mercer
Mercer is one of the lower projected scoring teams but you should be able to get a little bit of a tempo boost from their players as Duke is faster than them. We all know that Duke is just pathetic inside so Daniel Coursey should have a solid game if he can stay out of foul trouble. Mercer is pretty balanced however and likes to get everyone involved. Their best player is Langston Hall however he is somewhat reliant on the 3 point shot which Duke does so good defending. I would really be skeptical of using him today. Thomas has been struggling lately and he shoots a lot of 3’s so I wouldn’t use him but Gollon has been playing his best basketball of the season and might be an interesting value option.
Nebraska 66 vs Baylor 68
Nebraska
This is one of the slower games of this day as Baylor loves to slow poke around and Nebraska isn’t that quick themselves. One of the interesting things about Baylor is that they are bad on defense but efficient on offense which isn’t usually like a team which plays as slow as them. Petteway is going to take over 30% of the shots for Nebraska and he is the most consistent guy. I like his shooting ability against the Baylor zone and I also like Walter Pitchford’s shooting ability against the zone. Pitchford will draw Jefferson or Austin out to the perimeter, but the problem is that Austin is used to playing out there. I am not really a fan of Shields in this game or really anyone else. This should be a slow it down grind it out type game that comes down to the wire.
Baylor
Baylor will get the tempo boost here but should play this game around the same amount of possessions as usual. I really like Jefferson as Austin should be near Pitchford in the zone near the 3 point line. Jefferson will have no one else to rebound down there and will also be a mismatch on the offensive end. Royce O’Neale has been super cheap everywhere and does everything. He rebounds, assists, and scores and continues to make value. He is a solid play today, and so is Kenny Chery as Nebraska doesn’t have a guard who can deal with him. Chery is a little bit of a risk but he gets a lot of assists and should be good for around 15 points today. Brady Heslip has the 2nd best offensive efficiency in the country and is money on his 3’s. When you want a 3 point basket he is the one that I want taking the shot. He is one of the biggest risks however as he is not guaranteed to get those looks from 3.
Stanford 69 vs New Mexico 71
New Mexico
This is such a huge game here because New Mexico matches up incredibly with Kansas sans Embiid that they might be able to pull that upset. Both of these teams profile extremely similar, but New Mexico is just a little bit better than Stanford. This is a total toss up but I think New Mexico pulls this out in the end. Cameron Bairstow and Alex Kirk are going to be the difference here. Kirk has a massive advantage against Stefan Nastic inside, and no matter if Stanford matches up better with Gage on the floor, Dawkins will find a way to play Nastic 25 minutes. Kirk has been struggling to score the ball a bit lately but he always ends up with double digit rebounds and should be good for it again today. Cameron Bairstow has been absolutely incredible this year and doesn’t get enough love for what he’s done. He’s an incredible play if you can fit his salary because he’s almost a 20-7 lock today even against Powell or the Stanford zone. Stanford is weak against the 3 as well so I like Williams. I wouldn’t use Greenwood or Delaney as they aren’t usually the scorers.
Stanford
This year I have been so confused at Dwight Powell as he is one of the most talented players whenever he steps on the court but he has been playing so passive lately and really not coming through for fantasy owners. I still think he has one of the highest upsides but not in this game. New Mexico has an awesome interior defense so Powell, Huestis and Nastic are out of play here. I really like Chasson Randle however as New Mexico struggles to defend the perimeter. Stanford isn’t the greatest team to target in this one but I think Randle could pay off his number.
Weber State 55 vs Arizona 72
Arizona
The number 1 team in the KenPom.com rankings opens the tournament against Big Sky’s Weber State. While Weber state has a solid offense, they have absolutely no defense. Arizona should be able to score at will here and I like Nick Johnson, TJ McConnell and even Rondae Hollis-Jefferson today. I think Arizona uses a balanced approach to scoring here however so I am not sure that any of the players will make an upside play. Part of the problem as well in this one will be that Arizona should run away with this game at the end and really use the end of the game to run out the clock.
Weber State
It’s hard to believe that 2 years ago Damian Lillard was getting ready to join the NBA playing for Weber State. That team was much better than this one. These teams are 271 and 272 in the tempo rankings so they play essentially at the same pace. The problem with Weber State is that they have a terrible defense and Arizona has the #1 defense in the land. Kyle Tresnak is a 6-10 forward left over from that team and is one of the top options on Weber. Davion Berry is a 6-4 point guard who runs the show and is very involved in the offense. Joel Bolomboy has one of the best defensive rebounding rates in the country but none of this really matters as I wouldn’t use any of these guys against the Arizona defense. All of their upside is limited here.
Tennessee 72 vs UMass 66
UMass
If you were playing Draftstreet earlier in the year, you probably have a little exposure to the UMass players. There aren’t many people advancing UMass in this game, and for good reason, because they are a 6 point underdog to a Tennessee team who is playing some good basketball. If I was looking at this as UMass as an 11 seed, I would think they match up pretty well against Tennessee as they have the big bodies inside with Carter, Esho, Lalanne and Putney that can match Stokes and Maymon inside with a point guard in Chaz Williams who does everything well. Here I really don’t like UMass players because they are going from a top 20 tempo and playing a team in the 300’s who is solid on defense. If there is anyone I like it’s going to be Chaz as he will have to have a huge game to lead his team to victory. Not a lot of the bigs get consistent stats because there are so many of them, so just avoid this.
Tennessee
On the other hand, Tennessee is the team in the 300s in tempo facing one of the quickest teams in the land which is going to make their players very attractive. My favorite play on Tennessee is Jordan McRae as he is extremely cheap on a site like Draftstreet and will benefit from the tempo boost. The only concern with McRae is he will most likely be guarded by one of the trees inside so getting open for his 3 point looks may be a little bit difficult. Jarnell Stokes is a stud inside and is a basic lock for a double double. You will have to pay up for him though, so get ready to shell out that money if you want him in this matchup. I generally don’t like to use Jeronne Maymon and really don’t like his matchup here but Josh Richardson could make a sneaky play as I think he gets guarded by Derrick Gordon.
Louisiana-Lafayette 74 vs Creighton 87
Creighton
Well, we all know about this team. Doug McDermott is the guy you want to roster and usually there really isn’t much else. Creighton is chock full of great 3 point shooters but McDermott is going to be the guy who is going to get a ton of looks. Doug takes almost 40% of the team’s shots and there is no one on ULL who can check him. They aren’t very good inside on D and Shawn Long is the only guy inside who will have any effect on Doug. I think Doug could go for 40 in this game as ULL has a really quick tempo. The quick tempo the Rajin’ Cajuns employ makes Jahenns Manigat and Grant Gibbs options in my mind as they could get a couple of quick runouts after a missed shot. Creighton doesn’t turn anyone over so fast break opportunities off steals are not an option though.
Louisiana-Lafayette
If you haven’t seen Elfrid Payton play, get ready for a treat. I think he will get his points today even though he has been struggling lately. Payton is a junior with NBA aspirations at point guard and he definitely could make it there with a few good games. ULL is all Payton and Shawn Long, and Long is going to have to play a monster game being the only guy above 6’5 on the starting lineup. Mbamalu and Rimmer played solid games against Georgia State but I wouldn’t use them today; I would concentrate on the big guys. This is definitely a game to target and it should be full of points and possessions.
Eastern Kentucky 70 Kansas 83
Kansas
This should be a pretty fun game for the Jayhawks. Eastern Kentucky comes into this game with essentially the worst defense in the tournament and a pretty average tempo. Even without Embiid, Kansas should be able to score at will on EKY with Wiggins, Black, and Ellis. Eastern Kentucky has allowed teams to shoot 56% from 2 on the season which is just awful, and they aren’t much better against the 3. I really like Tarik Black for value here and I also like Wiggins I think his upside is through the roof. I can’t stand Perry Ellis is who knows which Perry Ellis you will get but he does have an upside here. Tharpe and Selden get a bump too in this game but I don’t like them for fantasy purposes.
Eastern Kentucky
The only reason Eastern Kentucky was able to win games is because their offense is extremely efficient. They have the 2nd best 2 point offense in the land and should be able to score at will without Embiid on the floor. Eric Stutz and Glenn Cosey have been great around the rim and Cosey has been extremely consistent. I think Cosey will score 20+ in this one even against the Kansas defense. Corey Walden is a 6-5 guard who has been up and down and will most likely match up against Ellis. The tallest started on EKY is Stutz at 6-8 which means the team is extremely short and will give up size to Ellis Wiggins and Black even without Embiid. Depending on price, some of the Eastern Kentucky guys could be good plays but it’s going to be completely price dependant.
Oklahoma State 70 vs Gonzaga 71
Gonzaga
Everyone is advancing the Cowboys to the 2nd round and talking about their matchup against Arizona, but Gonzaga is actually favored in the KenPom rankings. They aren’t going to be an easy out especially if Kevin Pangos’ turf toe is better. Oklahoma State is pretty weak inside so look for Sam Dower to have a monster game as he is a man among boys in the paint. Pangos is going to be really cheap and I actually like him for value in this game. David Stockton has been playing the entire game lately and has improve drastically. Stockton is always good for some assists and if Oklahoma State doesn’t acknowledge him, he could hit 15-20 points. Karnowski should also have a solid game as the only paint presence Oklahoma State has is Kamari Murphy and he is generally in foul trouble as teams like to attack him early and often.
Oklahoma State
Obviously a Cowboy preview is going to start with Marcus Smart. The polarizing figure for them is undoubtedly their leader and he puts up monster stat lines. Gonzaga’s strength is in the paint while Oklahoma State’s is on the perimeter so this game will come down to who can guard Brown and Smart. I like both to have really good games as Stockton and Pangos are not the guys to do it. My guess is few sticks Gary Bell on Smart, Stockton on Forte, and Pangos or Dranginis on Brown, but what do I know. Bell is their best perimeter defender and whoever he guards is going to have a hard time getting up shots. That being said, Smart is still in play because he is a great distributor, rebounder, and will get his points when someone else is on him. Murphy is cheap but I wouldn’t consider him against the inside strength of Gonzaga, and I wouldn’t use Le’Bryan Nash either. I think this game revolves around Forte, Smart, and Brown for the Cowboys.
George Washington 72 vs Memphis 73
Memphis
This is a very interesting game. In my experiences with Memphis, they have issues with teams who can match their athleticism and control the tempo. Any team who can do both of those things can have success against the Tigers, which would be the UConns and the Cincinnati’s of the world which both swept the Tigers. Here are the Colonials who can definitely do that. They are big, long, and while they aren’t that slow, they can definitely make Memphis play the way that George Washington wants to play. Isaiah Armwood is an incredible defender and we all saw what he did to Doug McDermott this year. It seems counter intuitive to be able to score on a team with such height, but Memphis is going to have to get a good game out of Shaq Goodwin to advance. Goodwin and Joe Jackson are the only guys that I really like here as George Washington defends the perimeter very well which should take away Crawford, Johnson, and Dixon.
George Washington
Memphis will hand GW a little tempo boost here and George Washington will need to score inside to beat Memphis. Memphis does defend guards well but they are a short team who may struggle against the size of the Colonials. Kethan Savage is the key here. Will he play? How much will he play? What is his price? Savage was a consistent fantasy option before the injury, but now he is somewhat like Michael Alvarado as you do not know what you will get. Joe McDonald’s value also hinges on the availability of Savage. I like the matchup for Isaiah Armwood in this game and I think he posts a solid stat line. Maurice Creek, the Indiana transfer, is what I would say the go-to scorer without Savage, and he should make a solid play as well. This team is very balanced, and to expect a guy to go for 30 is probably unrealistic. Here you are looking for 25 point value especially with the injury notes.
Cal Poly 54 vs Wichita State 70
Cal Poly
I am going to avoid this game completely for fantasy purposes. Wichita has a very good defense and will keep Poly from scoring, including Eversley, Nwaba, and Odister. Poly plays at a ridiculously slow tempo so they will even get a boost from the 250ish rank of Wichita State, but that is definitely going to be set off by the defense and just the better team of Wichita. The Shockers are so much better than Texas Southern that it may be a shock for the Mustangs just to play a team with that defensive intensity. Their prices are up a little due to the offensive beating they put on Texas Southern, but this game will be ugly.
Wichita State
The only way for Poly to win this game is to have as little possessions as possible and for Wichita to screw up the entire game. They have the tempo down, and are really going to try to make this game as slow as possible. Wichita is balance but Fred VanVleet is one of the safest options out there right now due to his assists. Ron Baker, Cleanthony Early, and Tekele Cotton should also play a big part but I really don’t like Wichita for fantasy purposes in this game. They are going to use a balanced approach to take out Cal Poly and there will be a lack of possessions. I’m expecting the end of this game to be a coast by Wichita which kills some value also.
Providence 71 vs North Carolina 75
North Carolina
We have a Big East/ACC battle here with Providence being some people’s sleepers. Other than the two games they lost at the end of the season UNC was on a roll and playing some of their best basketball. Paige and McAdoo were playing well and they were getting bench contributions. In this one, both teams profile decent defensively all around and Paige/Cotton is going to be a great matchup. I favor Cotton in that one, but the problem for Providence is they give up a lot of 2’s and UNC can only score with the 2. I like James Michael McAdoo to have a solid game and I also like Tokoto and Johnson for value. I have given up figuring out how Roy uses Meeks so just don’t use him, but Paige could also find value in the 2nd half.
Providence
UNC is one of the quickest teams in the nation so the tempo bump defintiely goes to Providence here. Cotton is going to play 40 minutes in this game guaranteed and he is always a great play. He should be able to go for his normal 20-8-5. LaDontae Henton has been playing incredible lately and is also in play although he is pretty expensive. I don’t really like Batts today because of UNC’s length in the paint and the fact that UNC will be attacking the paint early and often and Batts is very foul prone. If you want a guy who is cheap, plays the whole game, and has some 3 point upside you could look at Josh Fortune who is as up and down as anyone but is always a cap saver. Tyler Harris has somewhat hit a freshman wall as he isn’t producing as much anymore and leaving it to the other guys. He is definitely a great talent and maybe almost a week off will help him get his legs under him, but I’m not rolling with him.
Stephen F. Austin 65 vs VCU 70
VCU
Lots of people have VCU losing this game, but when I look at the teams, I still like VCU to come out ahead. Yes, I know that SFA hasn’t lost a game in forever, and yes, I know they have played well against fast tempo teams, but they are extremely small and haven’t faced a team of VCU’s girth all year except for Texas. They also haven’t played anyone in the top 100 of the KenPom rankings since Texas. Their point guard turns the ball over at an alarming rate and did I mention they are short? That being said, VCU players will not get that big of a tempo bump here as SFA loves to control the game and make the tempo slow. I’m looking for Juvonte Reddic to have a huge game here against the really short SFA roster and also looking for Mo Alie-Cox to provide some solid bench depth. I like Weber, Brandenburg, and Burgess’ steal potential on FanDuel, but the loss of Melvin Johnson for the tournament is going to hurt them a bit in the future. This team isn’t a great play all around but I think for the right price on the right site, you can find value.
Stephen F. Austin
With SFA getting the tempo bump, they still are projected to score a lower total than they have in 2 months. This isn’t good for their fantasy output, even though I might take a stab at Thomas Walkup who has been incredibly good for the past couple of months. Desmond Haymon is also an interesting play on SFA but I really don’t like anyone too much from there. I think the pressure defense of the Rams is really going to cause some problems for Pinkey, and if I was the coach, I would actually start Deshaunt Walker and play him a lot more minutes against VCU. That may be the key to SFA pulling the upset.
Coastal Carolina 52 vs Virginia 69
Virginia
Malcolm Brogdon has been an unknown outside the DFS community for an extremely long time, and I think it’s time to stop. Brogdon has been great for the Hoos and should post a great stat line in this game. I see no way Coastal is able to stop him or Joe Harris but I would like to have Brogdon on my team more as he rebounds and assists and hardly ever puts up a dud game. The great thing about Brogdon is that he has been cheap for the whole year and definitely rosterable. I still like Joe Harris here and I also think Akil Mitchell could make for an interesting play as he has been playing better as of late. Virginia is almost certainly going to blow the doors off Coastal here with lock down defense so it won’t be a struggle late, but their players are cheap and they should have a chance to reach value.
Coastal Carolina
Coastal plays at a decent tempo and uses a lot of Josh Cameron and Elijah Wilson on offense. Those are the two guys that get the most shots but the guy who has been playing the best lately is Warren Gillis. I cannot advise any of the people on Coastal, just like normal ACC games, you stay as far away as you can from Virginia games as they have a lock down defense and play ridiculously slow. This is just a clear avoid team as they should be the lowest scoring team of the first round.
Kansas State 65 vs Kentucky 69
Kentucky
I feel like I have previewed this team the most out of any team this year. The Harrison’s have dropped way down in NBA scouts minds, and I could have told you that after watching them play earlier in the year. They are inconsistent, not great offensively, don’t run a team particularly well, and have poor attitudes when things don’t go their way. Here against Kansas State is going to be a test for them. I am not using them at all today as they are way too up and down and their only upside is against fast tempo teams. Kansas State defends the 3 extremely well, so kick James Young off your radar as well. The guy I am looking at to have a monster game here is Julius Randle, and if he does he can carry Kentucky in to the next round against Wichita. Kansas State is slow, but disciplined defensively and should cause some problems if they are able to pack the paint and make Kentucky shoot it. Cauley-Stein has a chance for a solid game but due to the low tempo I’m only looking at Randle.
Kansas State
Kentucky defends everything pretty well, so you are really looking for price value here. This shouldn’t be a high scoring game, so I am not targeting anyone from this game. The one guy who might be extremely cheap to look at is Shane Southwell. After coming back from injury, he had a very slow start but he looks to be fully healthy now and is a fantasy threat when healthy. Southwell could provide some cap relief and upside today. I like Marcus Foster but don’t really think this is a solid matchup for him. No one else other than Gipson is going to get you consistent points so I am not looking at K-State for a bunch of my players today.
North Carolina Central vs Iowa State
Iowa State
Iowa State is usually on the list of teams to target but it might be a time to go against the crowd and avoid them today. Kane, Ejim, and Niang are 3 of the best fantasy players but they are all really expensive. This is actually one of my favorite upset games of the day that no one is talking about. NC Central is lock-down defensively, is as tall as Iowa State, and forces turnovers. If Iowa State isn’t making shots and NC Central is denying the Niang and Kane drives, I can really see Iowa State beginning to have some problems. My advice for you in this game is to not look at Iowa State players and actually turn your attention to NC Central guys.
North Carolina Central
This team profiles as a team that can do some damage to an offensive team like Iowa State. Iowa State has a good but not great defense and a pretty high tempo so the NC Central guys all get a huge fantasy bump. Jeremy Ingram is a stud and should be on everyone’s radar today. Ingram should get close to 30 points today against the Iowa State defense and he has a pretty high steal rate. He shouldn’t be max salary and I’m going to be trying to roster him as his matchup is pretty solid for a small school team. Other than Ingram, it’s going to be hard to find consistent value. Emanuel Chapman plays a lot of the game but is more a distributor and doesn’t look to score. Jawara doesn’t do much on the offensive end as well and they rely on bench player Jordan Parks to rebound. Parks should get a lot of minutes in this one and I actually like him as a sleeper player. If there’s a shocker on Friday, I’m giving this game the thumbs up.
Tulsa 71 vs UCLA 77
UCLA
I think UCLA is a very solid off the wall Final Four candidate, but I don’t envy this first round matchup. Tulsa is great at defending the 2, and other than teams getting hot against them from 3, they defend well all over the court. They are playing their best basketball right now and will pose a test to UCLA. Jordan Adams is going to need to get hot, which I think he will, and Kyle Anderson is going to have to do work around the rim and kick to the 3 point shooters. I think UCLA will do well because they have guys like LaVine, Adams, and Alford who can knock down the 3 and the Wear twins who can dominate in the mid-range. Kyle Anderson is probably the cheapest he is ever been and I relish another chance to use him in fantasy.
Tulsa
These two teams are both pretty fast so this should be an extremely fun game. James Woodard is a diamond in the rough, and I hope everyone is ready to watch him put a hurt on UCLA. He is a great play here as he has been spectacular in Tulsa’s run to the tournament and definitely should get some love. Shaq Harrison should also make another solid play as he has been playing the entire game and getting extra looks that he wasn’t getting early in the season. It’s hard to pick anyone else because Manning uses a substitution pattern that’s really tough to gauge. Peete, Evans, Wright, Ray, and Smith could all receive under 20 minutes depending on what happens in the game. I would stick with Woodard and Harrison today.