CBB Grind Down Tournament Edition: Saturday
What a first two days of the tournament. If your bracket hasn’t been busted after this round is when you can really start looking at which teams you need to make the Final Four to win your pool. If you were lucky enough to make it through the first two rounds of the survivors, today is going to be the last day of eliminating half the field before the payouts begin so it is imperative you get as many entries through as possible.
As always, score projections are from KenPom.com as this is how we have evaluated the teams all year. It may be helpful to check the Vegas lines as well, but for the purposes of the rest of these articles it will be all KenPom. I don’t expect any surprise injuries so everyone normal should be good to go today.
Pittsburgh 61 vs Florida 65
Pittsburgh
This should be one of the closes 1 vs 9 matchups this year. Pittsburgh has profiled as a great team all year but has never proven it in game time. They get one game to prove to the world that they deserve everyone’s attention but horribly it’s against Florida, the best team in the nation. Florida has an incredible defense and play slow so it’s never a great idea to take guys from games involving the Gators. I am fading Patterson, and will probably end up fading Zanna as his salary has gone through the roof for a guy who will get matched up with Patric Young. I’m not really looking at any of the other guys in James Robinson or Cameron Wright either because Robinson will draw Wilbekin and Wright just doesn’t have the upside in this game. Get your guys somewhere else.
Florida
I’ve talked about how good Florida’s defense is but Pittsburgh has a solid defense as well. 65 points is pretty much what Florida has been scoring lately so the salaries should be pretty much on point for them in this game. The Zanna/Young matchup will be intense but I have never trusted Young in DFS. I think that Scottie Wilbekin and Casey Prather could do some damage in this game, however Florida is just so balanced that not many of their guys have a ton of upside. Prather is good for about 22 fantasy points so keep that in mind when judging salaries. This is a dangerous game for Florida in the tournament and it is also a dangerous game for the Florida DFS guys.
Saint Louis 63 vs Louisville 71
Louisville
Saint Louis is a great defensive team but this ear they are actually playing at a higher tempo than in years past which might cause the Louisville players to be a little under-owned today. Louisville is actually projected to be one of the highest scoring teams today so even if you pay up for guys like Smith and Harrell they could still end up being one of the better plays of the night. Saint Louis gets it’s shots blocked pretty easily so I really like Harrell’s matchup on FanDuel. I’m being a little cautious with this one because of Saint Louis’ solid defense but I like Hancock, Smith, Harrell and even Chris Jones today.
Saint Louis
What a beast performance by Jordair Jett and Rob Loe in the latter stages and overtime of the game against NC State. Both guys ended up being studs and paid off their number. I am probably going to be fading Rob Loe today with his matchup against Harrell but I like Jett again and the one guy I really like in this one is Dwayne Evans. He didn’t have a great game last game as he was saddled with foul trouble and didn’t play his best but he has a great matchup against the defensively challenged wings of Louisville. His price will have fallen a little bit and I really think he makes value today. I also like Jett as I don’t think that Russ Smith can handle him when he is playing the point, but be careful of Saint Louisv guys as they aren’t projected to do much against this Louisville defense.
Texas 69 vs Michigan 73
Texas
There are going to be some interesting teams today that people really did not think they would be using. Texas takes their tempo boosting game to Michigan today and really puts the Wolverines in a good position. It looks like Isaiah Taylor has finally gotten his confidence back and I would take him today against Derrick Walton Jr. in a heartbeat if he continues to be so cheap. Ridley was a boss in the last game and should continue to be one in this game against the weak interior of Michigan. Jon Holmes continues to play limited minutes so his upside is limited here although he is cheap, and I really wouldn’t consider anyone else on Texas, there just isn’t enough consistency in their minutes.
Michigan
I am going to be targeting a lot of Michigan guys in a game here which should be one of the higher scoring games of the night. I really like the wings of Michigan as the strength of Texas is at point guard and down low. Caris LeVert, Glenn Robinson, and Nik Stauskas all look like solid plays to me here. Robinson has been solid lately and even though I have a concern about him showing up in big games, I still like his lower price and floor. Caris LeVert has arguably been the best player on Michigan and we all know what Stauskas can do shooting the ball and off the dribble against Holland, Holmes and Felix. I am not a big fan of Walton, Morgan, or Horford in this one.
North Dakota State 62 vs San Diego State 65
North Dakota State
Everyone who took Taylor Braun with me was definitely disappointed in the game he had but it proved that the Bison aren’t just Braun and they are able to win more than one game in the tournament when their star doesn’t produce. Even though San Diego State is a great defensive team, I wouldn’t immediately ignore Braun today. I think that he will have a better game that he did last time and now that he has burned some people, most will avoid him. This is a perfect time to play contrarian and roll with Braun even in a low scoring game as there are no high scoring games today. Lawrence Alexander was extremely cheap and had a great game, but I will be fading him today. I don’t like his matchup with the length of San Diego State. TrayVonn Wright was ridiculously cheap on FanDuel and should stay that way, and I like him there again today as he is one of the lowest risk options for the last round of the eliminate half the field survivors.
San Diego State
Obviously this team starts and ends with Xavier Thames trying to score the basketball, but no one really makes a top tier play on the team. Thames doesn’t do much else than score, and none of the other guys on the team score even though they rebound and get garbage buckets. One guy I might look at if his price has decreased is Winston Shepard. Shepard doesn’t have the greatest touch but he usually finds a way to produce especially in ugly games. Skylar Spencer is cheap but doesn’t make a good play to me on FanDuel as North Dakota State is one of the hardest teams to block in the nation. I am definitely avoiding SDSU players on FanDuel and will be selective on other sites.
Dayton 61 at Syracuse 66
Dayton
We saw what Dayton could do against Ohio State, and it didn’t matter that OSU played great defense. The Flyers move the ball really well and I think they match up against Syracuse better than Ohio State. Kavanaugh was huge against Ohio State but I think Dayton may go away from Kavanaugh against the Syracuse zone. I am not a huge fan of any Dayton player here as I noted 2 days ago that other than Oliver, Pierre, and Sibert there are a ton of players used, and lots of minutes given to multiple people. Of those 3, I think Jordan Sibert is the guy you want to own as you need to make shots against the Syracuse zone and Sibert is the best shooter on this team.
Syracuse
The Orange crushed Western Michigan but they get a totally different team there in Dayton. The Flyers move the ball really well on offense and have the athleticism on defense to defend the Orange. That being said, I somewhat like Syracuse players today as guys such as Grant and Christmas are super cheap and should have a matchup against Dayton which is pretty easy for them to exploit. Fair and Ennis are pretty expensive and I am not targeting them today but I really like Grant in this game.
Oregon 73 vs Wisconsin 76
Oregon
This is one of the games that I might be targeting, however I am probably not going to be looking at Oregon. Oregon is not the team that is going to get the tempo boost and I am not a fan of Joe Young against the Wisconsin defense. I think Moser could have a solid game but he is a risk as his last 5 games have been a disappointment and he is expensive. Guys like Elgin Cook and Jason Calliste often get the big stage over the other players you usually use and because of the deep roster you never really know who is going to get the minutes and the shot attempts. This is one of the highest tempo games however it might be good to avoid Oregon today.
Wisconsin
I really like Wisconsin today and will be looking at them to do most of the damage in DFS today. I love Frank Kaminsky against the no name Oregon interior and I think he could be the best dollar for dollar value on the slate today. I also like Trae Jackson and Ben Brust could also have a good game as Oregon struggles to defend guards. I am somewhat off on Dekker as a prefer to attack the other positions of Oregon but I could see if he has a monster game I just think the other guys on Wisconsin pose better value.
Harvard 67 vs Michigan State 70
Harvard
I loved Harvard against Cincinnati but against Michigan State it is a different story. Siyani Chambers is doing a great job of running the point but against Appling and the Michigan State defense who can press at any moment, it might not be that great of a matchup. Cincinnati wreaked havoc on the Crimson with their press and I expect Izzo to see that tape and try to enact some of the same tendencies. Steve Mondou-Missi has been great lately and plays well in the tournament format so expect him to continue his solid play, along with Kyle Casey. The problem here is the matchup against Payne and Dawson as both are solid defenders down low and can take away the Crimson upside.
Michigan State
I could say that I hate this matchup, but even though I am a huge fan of Harvard, I think Michigan State can handle them if they are on their game. Harvard is solid with no real weaknessess but if there is anything they don’t do that well is their perimeter defense. I love Gary Harris in this game as I think whoever is guarding him whether it be Rivard or Saunders will have an issue getting out to him when he shoots 3’s. Payne was incredible last game and he’s going to have to have another monster game for MSU to get through. The offense should always run through Payne and to use him tonight is not a bad idea at all.
Connecticut 65 vs Villanova 68
Connecticut
Shabazz Napier in my opinion makes the #1 play on the board today. Napier has really fallen off recently, which only made his price more affordable. If you look at big name guys who thought they would be going out yesterday like Ingram, McDermott, Smart, Cotton, they all put up monster games and I think Napier is going to do the same here. Villanova is a solid team defensively but if they have one weakness it’s their perimeter defense. Napier can abuse this here and so can Ryan Boatright who will make a solid option if you don’t want to pay up for Napier. I would think twice about using DeAndre Daniels as he is inconsistent (even though he has been good lately) and Brimah and whoever else Ollie decides to use.
Villanova
The job that Jay Wright has done with this team is incredible. He has taken a team which was projected to finish at the bottom of the league and turned them into a legitimate national title contender. Some people still doubt them, including me, but the reality is that they profile as one of the best tempo free teams of this year. Nova is only projected to win by 3 so guys like Arcidiacono, Ochefu, and Hart all need to have solid games. Those are the 3 who aren’t the real fantasy options so the guys I am really looking at are Hilliard, Pinkston and Bell. James Bell is incredibly cheap for a guy who takes almost 30% of the shots for Nova and his upside is 30 fantasy point high. I like Hilliard but his value is related to Bell as they share shots. Pinkston is the most consistent guy as he will score 11 points and bring down 8 rebounds every game. If you are looking for 25 points in your roster, look no further than JayVaughn.