CBB Grind Down Tournament Edition: Thursday
The best time of the year is here right now and the sites have all put up some awesome contests for us DFS fanatics. The only disappointing thing is that both of the big events for DS and FanDuel have filled and Draftstreet has even posted a 20k blowout in addition. I can only imagine that the DK contest is going to fill extremely quick. I’m ready for Thursday and Friday to get here so let’s get to the first day of this incredible weekend.
While breaking down the games today, I am going to be focusing on H2H and double up plays more than the risky guys as most of the end of season DFS events are survivor leagues and you want to just beat half the field to move on. I could have used Vegas lines on the score projections but I am going to continue with KenPom’s rankings as I have used those all season.
Ohio State 67 vs Dayton 63
Ohio State
This is such an awesome matchup to kick off the action on Thursday. If I am Ohio State, I hate to see Dayton here; a team that wanted to play Ohio State in the regular season but OSU refused to schedule them. Ohio State has handed the offensive keys to LaQuinton Ross as he has been stellar recently but his salary has also soared through the roof. This isn’t a game that I am going to be targeting heavily as both teams are bottom 3rd of the nation in tempo and Dayton’s defense, while not stellar, is decent. I like Ross’ matchup here but I also like Aaron Craft’s matchup against Khari Price and Scoochie Smith who are both youngsters with not a lot of experience. We all hear about how crafty Aaron is and how cerebral of a player he is. While his offensive game is terrible, I think he makes a difference in multiple other ways. I really do not like anyone else on Ohio State. Lenzelle Smith is fading back into inconsistency, Amir Williams cannot be trusted in the paint especially against Devin Oliver and Matt Kavanaugh and no one else gets consistent minutes.
Dayton
I am also fading Dayton huge here, especially the perimeter guys Khari Price, Scoochie Smith and Jordan Sibert. Dayton plays a deep bench and no one is guaranteed minutes. They will also be in a slow tempo game against the 4th best defense in the nation. I think this game ends up pretty close at the end just because of the lack of consistent scorers for Ohio State, but to look for any DFS player from Dayton who is going to get you consistent points is just not going to move you on with their deep rotation and the Ohio State perimeter defense.
American 58 vs Wisconsin 66
Wisconsin
The 2nd game here pits the 2 seed Wisconsin against the 15 seed of American. The first five games have a general lack of all tempo, and this should be one of the slowest games of Thursday. American is 342nd in tempo averaging only 61 possessions per game and Wisconsin should love to sink into their tempo. The Eagles have a very solid defense along with their slow tempo and held regular season champion Boston University to 36 points in their title game. I would avoid Wisconsin players here as this could end up as a 60-40 type blowout which Wisconsin just cruises in the final 5 minutes really shortening the game. Kaminsky is the best play and is decently cheap but he just doesn’t bring much upside.
American
The Eagles are led by Tony Wroblicky inside who is a 6-10 fundamental senior that plays 80% of the minutes. Wroblicky would be a solid play if it was anyone else but Wisconsin. He’s basically guaranteed around 13-9 every game with some assists mixed in there, but as noted above this game is just so slow and technical his upside is low and he’s not cheap. He also has a guy in Kaminsky that can match his size and physicality that most of the Patriot League couldn’t do. The other guys on American that are of note are John Schoof, Jesse Reed and Darius Gardner. All 3 are on the court for almost the entire game and are pretty decent shooters which will be key against the sagging man of Wisconsin. I can see American keeping this game close for a while but Wisconsin ending this game in the 2nd half and coasting for the final 5 minutes.
Pittsburgh 68 vs Colorado 63
Pittsburgh
Here is another game that is going to be played at a pretty slow pace with 2 solid defenses. If I’m going to choose either of these teams to target it’s going to be the Panthers, not only because they are favored pretty significantly for an 8/9 game but also because Colorado is going to give them the tempo bump. Colorado rebounds well but one thing they don’t do is defend the 3 so Lamar Patterson should be able to go nuts in this one. If cheap, I like Patterson a lot in this game as he should be relied on early and often. Talib Zanna has been playing like a man among boys lately but Colorado has the inside game to match up with him. Zanna has been incredible at offensive rebounding lately but Colorado should be able to take away that part of the game. Because of Colorado’s solid rebounding I am fading Zanna Thursday. James Robinson could be a solid play as well as he doesn’t turn the ball over and should be able to best Colorado’s guard play.
Colorado
Colorado has been playing slower than molasses lately and haven’t been that great either without Dinwiddie. They hang their hat on the Kansas win with Dinwiddie and really did not do much after that. I think Pittsburgh takes it to them today and I would avoid all of the Colorado players. Askia Booker struggles against better teams and Pittsburgh has been extremely solid defensively. Josh Scott will have his hands full with Zanna the entire night and Pitt has the strength on the wing in Patterson, Artis, and Wright to effect Xavier Johnson.
Harvard 60 vs Cincinnati 62
Cincinnati
The Bearcats are one of the teams I am picking to fall here as they get a terrible matchup against a very good Harvard team. We all know about Cincinnati’s defense, athleticism and their slow tempo but Harvard also plays fairly slow (242nd in tempo), and has a solid defense (33rd). This game should be played at an extremely low tempo as both teams are going to use each possession like gold. Sean Kilpatrick will get his here but the other players on Cincinnati have such low ceilings. I like Justin Jackson as he is cheap and has been playing well but there are other forwards I like in the later games more than Jackson. Jackson is a better play on FanDuel than the other sites.
Harvard
I really like Harvard to advance on this one as they have Rivard, Curry, and Chambers who all shoot the 3 ball really well and that’s how you beat Cincinnati. I wouldn’t target Harvard players but if you are looking for some value, Laurent Rivard and Siyani Chambers are definitely the two I want. Wesley Saunders and Steve Mondou-Missi have been playing extremely well as of late and the Crimson will need them to continue to play well in the tournament format to upset the Bearcats with their length inside. Harvard has great guard play, is experienced as they beat New Mexico last year, and has guys who can get buckets when they need them which is what you want in an upset pick.
Western Michigan 59 vs Syracuse 69
Syracuse
The Orange come into this game losing 5 of 7, their only wins being Florida State and Maryland. They have also lost to Georgia Tech and Boston College who profile as as bad or worse than Western Michigan. Western is much faster than Syracuse and has just above an average defense which will benefit the Orange in this game. I think Syracuse starts out slow but CJ Fair and Tyler Ennis end up too much for the Broncos to deal with. Ennis and Grant’s price has risen a bit recently but they should still make pretty solid plays along with Grant. Don’t use Cooney; there are much better plays than him out there. Western Michigan defends the 3 fairly well but that’s not where Syracuse gets all their points so they shouldn’t have too much of a problem scoring in this game with Grant, Fair and Ennis.
Western Michigan
The Broncos are led by a solid guard in David Brown and one of the better post players in the country in Shayne Whittington. Whittington has put up some massive fantasy games this year in the MAC, and Brown has put up some incredible scoring numbers, but it’s time to avoid these two in this game. WMU hasn’t seen a long zone defense like what Syracuse is going to show them in this one and the length of Cuse inside with Christmas and Grant is really going to frustrate Whittington. There is hardly any upside for WMU players here and their prices are pretty high after some high scoring games recently. Other guys who get a lot of minutes like Connar Tava, Tucker Haymond and Austin Ritchie aren’t options as they aren’t involved enough in the offense.
BYU 82 vs Oregon 85
Oregon
3:10 PM is when the real DFS contests should start. This game is going to be incredible as both teams are incredibly fast. Oregon games are usually solid to target because they give teams a tempo boost but BYU is the 8th fastest team in the country so there should be a ton of possessions for the Ducks today. This is a rare tournament game when the teams played before, and they didn’t disappoint. Young had 25 and Calliste had 31 in the Ducks 100-96 win. I love Joseph Young today and think he could be one of the highest single game point scorers. I also really like Mike Moser in this game who has been playing his best basketball lately and should easily be able to post a double double. Calliste is definitely going to be involved in the scoring and makes the 3rd best play on Oregon. The other guys from the Ducks that I think could end up in play are Artis and Loyd, but the problem is minutes played and who will play. I think they are a bit too risky for me but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them had a solid game.
BYU
The Cougars lost Kyle Collinsworth for the year, and that is a gigantic loss. Collinsworth was a 6-6 guard who played the glue guy and was also able to put up huge scoring numbers. If you remember, he was also part of the 2011 BYU team with Jimmer who made it past Gonzaga and into the Sweet 16 I think this hurts BYU a ton and most of the scoring load is going to fall to Matt Carlino and Tyler Haws. Haws is a fantastic play today as he went for 32 against Oregon earlier this year and Oregon really decides that they aren’t going to stop anyone. Haws will end up with a ton of his mid-range open jumpers and should reach 30 in this game. Matt Carlino is the other guy who I think really benefits. Carlino will get all the minutes he can handle and is not scared to shoot the ball. The problem with Carlino is his incredible streakiness but if he gets hot BYU can steal this one. Eric Mika down low should also get some extra looks as BYU is really going to need to abuse Oregon’s paint defense. I have no problems with you using 4 players from this game, it is such a fantasy goldmine.
Albany 53 vs Florida 69
Florida
Is this 1 seed in danger? Most certainly not in this game. Florida has been totally dominant this year in the SEC and the less athletic less skilled Danes are not going to be able to match up to Florida’s defense. I wouldn’t be worried about players sitting in a blowout so Scottie Wilbekin should play a lot here and also Michael Frazier might get some extra shots as Albany struggles to defend the 3. Albany has some pretty big bodies to play inside against Florida and they have a solid interior defense so I would stray from Patric Young and Casey Prather again in this one and try to use the Florida guards.
Albany
If you really want to use Albany players, they are led by 6-4 Peter Hooley who is the go-to scorer and best offensive player on the team. Hooley takes and makes a lot of 3’s so he could be in play on DraftKings if cheap enough. The other guy who makes the offense run is 6-6 bruiser Sam Rowley who gets most of his buckets around the rim. I wouldn’t consider him here as he hasn’t faced a strong interior like Florida yet this year. DJ Evans has been solid in Albany’s run to the tournament but he will most likely draw the defense of the much taller Scottie Wilbekin and should be ignored. The good thing about Albany is their starters play most of the game but the bad thing is they will struggle to break 50 in a game against Florida.
Delaware 73 vs Michigan State 85
Michigan State
This game scares the bejeezus out of me as a Michigan State fan as I have watched Delaware a lot and know they are a really solid team with some really good guards. They have the scoring ability and the experience to pull off the upset here if the Spartans aren’t on their best game. The saving grace for MSU is going to be Delaware’s inability to rebound the basketball and their weak interior defense. I love Adreian Payne who should be able to pull down a plethora of offensive rebounds and get some really easy buckets around the rim. Keith Appling is super cheap, his wrist is healed and in a high tempo game and he should also be a solid play. I really like Brandon Dawson as well as he will create matchup problems for Delaware when on the court. MSU should easily hit 80 here against Delaware who is the 10th fastest team in the country and has a bad interior defense. Valentine is a little expensive but makes an ok play and Gary Harris should also make value.
Delaware
The Blue Hens are a really solid team but they don’t profile as a giant killer. They have a weak interior, they do not force turnovers, and they don’t defend very well. They are also a guard oriented team who can sometimes slip into scoring droughts if they aren’t making their shots. That being said, they should still be able to score against a Michigan State defense which has been somewhat porous this year as Threatt, Usher, and Saddler are incredible on the perimeter. They all put up some monster numbers and you will have to pay up, especially for Threatt. I am probably going to end up fading most of Delaware in this game as the salaries are based on them hitting 80 and they would be lucky to hit 80 here. Carl Baptiste is going to have to play a monster game for the Blue Hens to win this game, and lucky for them he’s been great lately. If his price is still low he could be in play.
St. Joseph’s 63 vs Connecticut 66
Connecticut
UConn doesn’t have a great matchup here against a St. Joe’s team which got hot in the A-10 tournament to make it in as a 10 seed. UConn has shown glimpses of being a great team and they have Shabazz Napier so I like them in this game, but they just haven’t been able to put it all together. This is a pretty low scoring game against two teams who play solid defense in the half court so there really isn’t all that much upside to anyone here compared to the other games that are in play. Shabazz’ price has come down and he will get his but I wouldn’t pick anyone else. St. Joe’s won’t turn you over but they also won’t give up easy buckets so it’s going to have to be the jumpers of Daniels, Boatright and Napier who get it done and I really don’t trust anyone else. Daniels should struggle inside against the athleticism of Ronald Roberts; Brimah and the other UConn players don’t have much upside.
St. Joseph’s
I love St. Joe’s for DFS as they play basically 5 players the entire game. I will ignore Chris Wilson as he is pretty invisible on the offensive side of the ball but the other 4 guys really put up numbers. Halil Kanacevic is a walking double double and has the best matchup out of all of the Hawks, but the issue with him is foul trouble. He will play the whole game if his foul situation lets him but he has the highest foul rate on the team. Langston Galloway is a pretty special player and if you’ve never watched him, he has the moxie to match Napier shot for shot. The great thing about Galloway is that he never turns the ball over so he won’t lose points on a site like FanDuel. DeAndre Bembry is the Shaq McKissic of St. Joe’s and is going to be a special player for his 4 years with the Hawks. He is a little too expensive for my tastes in this game though. Ronald Roberts is a boss as well and has basically been getting 15-8 every single game he plays.
Wofford 58 vs Michigan 71
Michigan
I guess you can say I’m an unbeliever in Michigan this year but they really should never lose this game. Wofford isn’t good inside which is where Michigan’s weakness is and Wofford doesn’t have the scorers to beat Beilein’s defense. Wofford is actually worse than Michigan inside which should allow Glenn Robinson some extra inside dunks and LeVert and Stauskas to get to the hole and shoot a lot of free throws. I am not a fan of Morgan or Horford inside because their minutes vary so much, and I really don’t like Walton in this game as Wofford is pretty good at defending guards but the 3 big wings should have their way in this one.
Wofford
Michigan is one of the best free throw shooting teams and Wofford is one of the worst, so don’t expect this game to be an upset unless Wofford runs away with it which they won’t. The Terriers are led by Karl Cochran who might be one of the safest plays on this Thursday. Cochran takes over 30 percent of the shots for Wofford and will still get his especially against Michigan’s weak major conference defense. That being said, I cannot see you wanting to use anyone else here except for maybe Lee Skinner. Skinner is the 2nd most used on offense and is actually their best rebounder standing at 6-6. Skinner may get to 10 rebounds today but if Wofford is unable to score he might not crack 10 points.
North Carolina State 67 vs St. Louis 69
North Carolina State
I hope by now you know who TJ Warren is, probably be best bucket getter in the country on one of the worst rest of the teams in country as well. NC State barely got into the tournament and beat Xavier fairly handily in the first four game. TJ Warren is literally the only guy you are going to want to choose here. None of the other players on NC State are worth anything and to beat St. Louis they are going to give it over and over to Warren. I am avoiding Warren today just because of his ridiculously high price on every site and the fact that St. Louis is a very good defensive team. Warren is going to get his 25 points but to make value is going to be tricky.
St. Louis
I saw everyone just advancing NC State in this game, but hold on. St. Louis was ranked in the top 10 earlier this season and even with it’s offensive struggles recently is still a good team. They have the ability to do one of two things. They can hold Warren to his 20 points and make the rest of the team make jumpers to beat them, or they can let Warren go nuts and really make the rest of the team beat them. Either way, I think this game will be low scoring and I still like St. Louis to advance here. Dwayne Evans is a stud at forward, Rob Loe is an experienced inside big who controls the paint and Jordair Jett is a beast on the perimeter. They have different pieces as well to match up with anything NC State throws at them and I think Dwayne Evans is up to the challenge of defending Warren. It isn’t really a good fantasy game but Evans is the guy I want if I’m picking from here.
North Dakota State 76 vs Oklahoma 80
Oklahoma
The Sooners never disappoint when playing fantasy games. They will always make a game that should be solid to target. Lots has been made about the Bison’s inability to defend the 3, and Oklahoma takes a lot of them. I love Buddy Hield’s matchup in this game and he is probably going to be on most of my rosters. Cameron Clark also shoots the 3 at a high percentage but he hasn’t been taking a lot of them lately. I like him today to have a solid game as well. I would look towards Isaiah Cousins as well and leave Woodard and Spangler at the bottom of my list on who I want to choose from Oklahoma. The problem with Oklahoma players here is that NDSU is pretty slow and Oklahoma is the fast one so the boost goes to the Bison.
North Dakota State
I have the Bison winning this game against Oklahoma even due to the 3 point shooting deficiency, as Oklahoma is still going to have to make the 3’s to win and then stop NDSU on the defensive end which I don’t think they can. NDSU is led inside by Marshall Bjorklund who has been one of the best players around the rim in the last 3 years. There is no way that Ryan Spangler can properly defend him and if Oklahoma is going to stop Bjorklund, they will have to double on every possession which will give Taylor Braun and TrayVonn Wright some open outside looks. I really like NDSU players here as I think they match up extremely well against Oklahoma. I can see NDSU grabbing an early lead due to some Oklahoma 3 point misses and holding on as OU will not be able to stop this offense. The end of the game goes to NDSU as well as they are actually a better free throw shooting team than Oklahoma, who is pretty good themselves.
Milwaukee 64 vs Villanova 79
Villanova
Villanova is a team that does a lot of things well and nothing really poorly. (Except maybe attempt to defend Creighton.) Nova is efficient on offense and on defense and they use a pretty even distribution of possessions on offense. James Bell, JayVaughn Pinkston, and Darrun Hilliard are the guys who take most of the shots but no one is over 26%. James Bell makes the best play out of all of Nova and he should be able to get some looks against the Milwaukee lineup. I also like Pinkston here as I really think that Milwaukee will struggle to match up with his athleticism. Arcidiacono is a very big risk as he doesn’t get consistent assists or rebonds and doesn’t really get over 10 points consistently. Ochefu isn’t a good play as he has been poor offensively lately but Darrun Hilliard could go nuts in this one. Nova players aren’t great in 50/50’s as it’s somewhat hard to pick who is going to go off because there are so many options.
Milwaukee
If you want a guarantee to score for Milwaukee, you’re going to want to look at Jordan Aaron. The diminutive guard is the best scorer on the Panthers and even in a game they will probably get blown out in, he should get around 20 points. Aaron missed a few games in the middle of the season but is still involved in the offense a lot and is the safest play on Milwaukee. Matt Tiby has had his games but he doesn’t usually play 30 minutes and is a risk. Steve McWhorter is the point guard who doesn’t really look to score but just facilitate. He is a risky pick especially against the Villanova defense who is solid at closing out on shooters. Kyle Kelm is a PF who does a lot of the rebounding and scoring and is the 2nd best option on the Panthers. This shouldn’t be a great matchup as Milwaukee is going to find it hard to abuse a weakness on Nova because they really don’t have one.
Arizona State 71 vs Texas 72
Texas
Down the stretch I really think that we found out who the Texas Longhorns were. I think they were a little bit of overachievers at the beginning of Big 12 play, while still being a solid team. Isaiah Taylor has really struggled down the stretch and could struggle again here against Jahii Carson. Rick Barnes has been using a ton of guys down the stretch and it’s hurting everyone’s fantasy value. One matchup I’m excited to see is Cameron Ridley against Jordan Bachynski. Ridley should get some extra minutes in this game with the size of Bachynski as only Ibeh has the size to match up with him if Ridley is out of the game. Other than that, Holmes hasn’t topped 27 minutes in forever, Felix is inconsistent and everyone else has been struggling.
Arizona State
This team is another one that really struggled down the stretch. They lost their last 3 games, one in OT to Oregon State and the other in the Pac 12 tournament getting waxed by Stanford. It’s really concerning, but I think ASU matches up really well in this game against Texas especially at the point guard position. I think Carson is in line for a good game against the youngster Taylor who has been struggling a bit. I am worried about Bachynski in foul trouble against the massive body of Ridley but I would take Marshall over Felix and the McKissic/Gilling combo over Holmes at this point. I like McKissic to put up numbers as well as Marshall as Texas struggles to defend the perimeter. I would avoid Bachynski and the other forwards however.
Manhattan 66 vs Louisville 78
Louisville
Everyone’s favorite team to get out of Wichita’s region got a pretty raw deal on the seed but actually got a fairly nice deal on the matchups. Manhattan is a solid team but shouldn’t match up well with Louisville. Montrezl Harrell is such a beast inside I think he will dominate Rhamel Brown and Ashton Pankey. Harrell makes a great play again as he has been incredible lately. Russ Smith also makes a solid play as I am not sure Alvarado is healthy yet and even then he cannot check Russ. I would avoid Hancock as I think Beamon will be able to check Hancock or if it’s not Beamon it will be Emmy Andujar, both of who have the ability to stop the Louisville wings. I really think it’s going to be Russ and Montrezl getting it done.
Manhattan
What a poor matchup Manhattan got. They are not as tall or athletic as Louisville. I can really see Rhamel Brown struggling to score against Harrell inside and I wouldn’t use him even though he’s been great lately. Beamon takes a ton of shots and is one of the safer options, but he will be expensive and isn’t all that efficient. I think that he is Manhattan’s best chance to score in this game. Emmy Andujar has really been stepping up his game lately, and if still fairly cheap could provide some cap relief in this game. He has been one of the most improved players from the start to the finish of the year and is really involved in the offense now. He could be a sneaky play.
New Mexico State 63 vs San Diego State 67
San Diego State
If we’re going to have carnage with tons of upsets, this certainly is a candidate for one of the upsets. There really isn’t any players here to get excited about except for Xavier Thames. He is the only offensive minded player on the team and while they can stop people from scoring, you still have to score more than the opponent to win. Thames is the only guy I am considering for fantasy purposes except for maybe Winston Shepard who has been fairly solid and consistent all year even though he isn’t a great offensive player. SDSU is going to need to hit 3’s against NMST which they definitely can, but shooting the 3 raises the variance greatly.
New Mexico State
This is definitely one of the weirdest teams to profile ever. They have Sim Bhullar, the 7-5 giant who has been great lately, pulling down rebounds and blocking shots. He is definitely a game changer while not the prettiest player. Then you have Renaldo Dixon and Tshilidzi Nephawe who are both 6-10 and play a ton of minutes. You are not going to score around the rim against this team, which will force San Diego State into being a jump shooting team. Both Dixon and Nephawe don’t have the fantasy upside as Bhullar but Nephawe is close. Then you have Daniel Mullings who has been to the tournament 3 years in a row and will not be fazed. Mullings is the leading shot taker on the team but will probably be hounded by Shepard dragging his value down. I think the Aggies try to use their size against an SDSU team who is used to being the biggest team on the court. This game will be pretty slow so you will really need to check your price points before committing to anyone here.