CBB Grind Down: Tue, Jan 6th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Tuesday, January 6th
A very big, solid slate for college basketball today, so let’s get in there and fill some of those guarantees that they have put out. There are hardly any NBA games, but college has a great slate of action today with some solid value plays to fit those studs, just like in the NBA. There are a couple of injury concerns as well that I am monitoring, the biggest being Jalen Jones’ ankle.
East Carolina at Cincinnati
| East Carolina | Cincinnati | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 116 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 4.80 | Vegas Total | 116 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.13 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 14 | Paint Pts/Gm | 25.20 | Vegas Sprd | -14 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.75 | |
| Team Proj. | 51 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.88 | Team Proj. | 65 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.00 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 95% | Field Goal % | 44.90% | Ast/TO Ratio | 88% | Field Goal % | 41.80% | |
East Carolina
Primary Plays
None – ECU travels to Cincinnati today to face the vaunted defense of the Bearcats. Compounding the problem is that Cincinnati has one of the slowest tempos in the nation along with ECU. ECU’s offense is terrible, and this could turn into a disaster quickly.
Secondary Plays
None
Cincinnati
Primary Plays
None – I am not a big believer in this Cincinnati team, especially not for DFS purposes. While all of their guys are cheap, they spread the ball around well and do not have a dominant scorer. While their offense is not the bottom of the barrell, they do not play enough possessions to make their players worth much.
Secondary Plays
Farad Cobb – If you are looking for a player on the cheap with decent upside, Cobb could be your guy. He takes a lot of shots and seems to have wrestled minutes from Kevin Johnson despite the fact that he is coming off of the bench. There is a bit of upside here as he takes a lot of shots when on the floor but as noted above, I hate this game.
Virginia Tech at Florida State
| Virginia Tech | Florida State | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.11 | Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 3.78 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 7 | Paint Pts/Gm | 31.33 | Vegas Sprd | -7 | Paint Pts/Gm | 27.33 | |
| Team Proj. | 66 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.22 | Team Proj. | 73 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.33 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 96% | Field Goal % | 49.00% | Ast/TO Ratio | 84% | Field Goal % | 47.20% | |
Virginia Tech
Primary Plays
Devin Wilson – This Florida State team is not very good, as proved by losing to Mississippi State last time out. They play at a fast tempo with an average defense, something Virginia Tech should be able to deal with after keeping it close with Syracuse. I like Wilson as he assists well and gets to the free throw line which cuts down variance. The issue is that he does not take a lot of shots, but at 5,700 you only need a few points and 10 assists to make value.
Secondary Plays
Satchel Pierce – Pierce has an 8.9 fouls per 40 rate which is one of the highest that I have ever seen. That essentially means that if you left him in for a half, he would foul out a good number of times. The draw lies in the fact that he is minimum salary, has nice tempo free stats, and that Van Zegeren is still out. Shane Henry is also in play as the other big if you want to fade Pierce’s foul issues.
Florida State
Primary Plays
Xavier Rathan-Mayes – Rathan-Mayes becomes no more expensive every time he goes out, yet he still brings back value nearly every time as well. I love him today against Virginia Tech in an uptempo game as he can see over the smaller defenders in Tech’s zone. His shot needs a bit of work, but should get it’s opportunities today.
Devon Bookert – The Big 3 for Florida State return as solid plays today. Their prices continue to stay the same, and they have a great matchup against a Virginia Tech team who likes to push tempo and allow a lot of points to come from the 3 pointer. This sets up well for Bookert who is the 3 point specialist and camps out behind the line a lot. I really like him for cheap today especially considering the zone he will be facing.
Secondary Plays
Montay Brandon – Brandon is the player on Florida State with the most upside here as he can go for 25 points easily if he is playing well, however he also has a lower floor than Rathan-Mayes and about the same floor as Bookert. Brandon is a solid wing with size who can rebound, but I really like Bookert over him against the Virginia Tech zone as Bookert is a better distance shooter.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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