CBB Grind Down: Tuesday, February 3rd
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Tuesday, February 3rd
A really nice slate today, which should result in some decent scores but a lot of overlap, as there are a couple of matchups that I really love and some that I really hate. We are into February now, so the conference races are going to begin heating up and by the end of February we will have daytime basketball almost every single day. I am anxiously awaiting the March Madness plans from the sites as we have seen a decent growth so far in CBB participation however the growth so far is peanuts compared to how many play during the tournament.
St. John’s at Butler
| St. John’s | Butler | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 128 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 12.67 | Vegas Total | 128 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.70 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 6 | Paint Pts/Gm | 29.11 | Vegas Sprd | -6 | Paint Pts/Gm | 33.80 | |
| Team Proj. | 61 | Opponent TOs/GM | 11.70 | Team Proj. | 67 | Opponent TOs/GM | 11.89 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 105% | Field Goal % | 44.90% | Ast/TO Ratio | 110% | Field Goal % | 45.40% | |
St. John’s
None – Butler is one of the best defensive teams in the country and while they do not play that slow, this game should be fairly low scoring especially for the Johnnies. Butler has a great perimeter defense and really pushes you off the 3 point line, so most of the baskets for St. John’s should come in the paint area. This would lead me to Obekpa or Pointer and I just cannot bring myself to take Pointer at that price with the other options on the board today. Obekpa would be my pick if you really wanted someone but on a 13 game slate, so reason to risk this.
Butler
None – It may seem weird, but I really think all of the Butler guys are overpriced here. Barlow and Chrabascz are not very good values and with Jones up at 7,800 I really do not trust any of them to make value in this one consistently. With FanDuel’s pricing being a bit softer than DraftKings, I do not see a need for a risk here.
Indiana at Wisconsin
| Indiana | Wisconsin | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 151 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.70 | Vegas Total | 151 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 5.45 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 15 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.80 | Vegas Sprd | -15 | Paint Pts/Gm | 28.64 | |
| Team Proj. | 68 | Opponent TOs/GM | 8.91 | Team Proj. | 83 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.00 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 134% | Field Goal % | 50.80% | Ast/TO Ratio | 156% | Field Goal % | 49.30% | |
Indiana
None – An Indiana team who usually scores upwards of 80 points playing against a Wisconsin team with one of the best defenses in the country is not where I like to spend my salary dollar. Wisconsin forces you into long 2’s with their sagging defense and a lot of inefficient shots which Indiana is going to hate. You can take Ferrell or Blackmon in GPPs because they will get their long shots, but it will be a crapshoot if they make them. I also think Wisconsin is going to be able to hold Williams’ dribble drives in check.
Wisconsin
Frank Kaminsky – An uptempo Indiana team who has no one to defend the paint, allowing 60% of opponents field goals to come in there along with allowing teams to shoot 50% from the field makes Kaminsky almost unanimously the top play of the day. Wisconsin is projected to score over 80 in this one and while they are not quick, they are efficient and Kaminsky should easily hit 20-10 today.
Nigel Hayes – Hayes may actually have the better of the matchup as well if Indiana focuses on stopping Kaminsky. There are no two guys on Indiana who can guard these two and with their lack of depth in the paint, this could get ugly quick. Hayes is a bit cheaper and I actually do not mind them both, but I think picking the right one is going to be crucial today.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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