CBB Grind Down: Wednesday, February 25th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Wednesday, February 25
After a fairly successful day of picks, I will try to listen to myself more. A lot of the picks that I really liked yesterday did not end up in my main lineup, but most of them were spot on. I will try to continue that today for you all, as we have a huge night on tap for us in college basketball. Let’s get right to it.
Indiana at Northwestern
| Indiana | Northwestern | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 142 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.70 | Vegas Total | 142 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 3.56 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.80 | Vegas Sprd | 2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 24.22 | |
| Team Proj. | 72 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.33 | Team Proj. | 70 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.00 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 134% | Field Goal % | 50.80% | Ast/TO Ratio | 116% | Field Goal % | 42.40% | |
Indiana
Yogi Ferrell ($8,300) – With all of the value out there today, yes it is definitely possible to fit Ferrell in in this game. While he has a poor matchup against the slow paced and defensive minded Northwestern team, there are a couple of reasons that I like him today outside of the fact that he has averaged value at this price in his last five games. First, Northwestern has switched to a zone defense, keeping Olah in the paint to block interior shots. Collins noted that he will continue to play the zone even against Indiana, so shooting will be paramount for the Hoosiers tonight, and Ferrell does a lot of that. Ferrell should also play a bigger role in the offense as he does on the road, as Blackmon and the other freshmen tend to struggle and defer on the road this year.
Hanner Mosquera-Perea ($4,700) – Generally I would not like Indiana here, but they play so quick and so efficient offensively and Perea is so cheap that he is definitely in play. He played 22 minutes in the last game and I am expecting something like 25 here tonight against the zone. If Perea can find some space on the baseline, he could end up dunking a few shots and making value. He hit 20 fantasy points in the last game, which is all we are looking for from a min-price guy, and his minutes will continue to grow with confidence.
Northwestern
Tre Demps ($6,300) – I noted that this may be as good of a time as any to stack Northwestern, and I truly believe that. They are not big dogs to Indiana here and are playing some of their best basketball in years, as they have switched to a zone defensively. Demps has been great in the last few games, going for 20 fantasy points in the last four, and he is a major part of what this offense does with a 28% shot percentage. He assists well as well and should be good for another 20-30 point night against Indiana
Vic Law ($4,600) – Coach Collins is very impressed with Law from how he began the season and is rewarding him with playing time, and it is working out well. Law has averaged good minutes in the last six games, only going under 22 minutes once against Iowa, which was done for other reasons. Last game he ended up with 17 points and 11 rebounds, and Collins has praised his work ethic in the gym and his talent. Collins noted that he would continue getting a lot of minutes as long as he continues to put the work in, and with Law’s talent I would not doubt he will make value today.
Alex Olah ($7,500) – Olah is one of the sneakier good plays today. Indiana is weak inside, even with the return of Mosquera-Perea, and Olah has been playing big minutes lately because of the switch to a zone defense. Olah is able to stay more towards the basket so he does not get winded during games, and he is able to block more shots this way. Indiana’s interior defense has been attacked all year, and even though Olah has a massive price I think he is able to stay out of foul trouble and really put a hurting on the Hoosiers.
Kentucky at Mississippi State
| Kentucky | Mississippi State | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 123 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 10.36 | Vegas Total | 123 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 6.63 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -17 | Paint Pts/Gm | 34.91 | Vegas Sprd | 17 | Paint Pts/Gm | 23.50 | |
| Team Proj. | 70 | Opponent TOs/GM | 15.25 | Team Proj. | 53 | Opponent TOs/GM | 11.09 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 150% | Field Goal % | 47.30% | Ast/TO Ratio | 61% | Field Goal % | 44.40% | |
Kentucky
None – I actually liked a couple of Kentucky players against Auburn just because of the sheer number of points that Kentucky would put up despite a blowout. The game turned into a farce and Kentucky cruised to 110. I think that Mississippi State at home here will be able to hold Kentucky to around 80 if not 70 like KenPom is projecting. If that does occur, the game will likely still be a blowout, and the guys like Towns and the Harrisons will not have as many points to go around along with playing only 20 minutes. This seems like a low upside situation, and if Mississippi State keeps this close to keep the minutes up for the starters, the score will likely be in the 60s since Mississippi State cannot score.
Mississippi State
None – The Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the nation this year that no one knows about. They have gotten much better on both ends of the floor but may be without IJ Ready again, which would hurt them. Anyway, they are still not a great team and are facing the mighty Wildcats, who are projected to hold them to 53. This is a bad, bad matchup especially for daily fantasy, as Kentucky has one of the best defenses of the last couple decades.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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