CBB Grind Down: Wednesday, February 4th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his tournament games below, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Wednesday, February 4th
February is one of the least appreciated months of college basketball. While March gets all the attention, it is February that sets all of these teams up to be successful in March and we start thinking about seeding and the bubble. I counted about 60 teams right now with a realistic shot at one of the 36 at-large spots, so the field has to be trimmed and February will do that well. Each night we inch closer and closer to the best end of season event known to man.
Oh, this is a DFS column? Well, here are today’s plays.
Georgia Tech at Duke
| Georgia Tech | Duke | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.22 | Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 9.56 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 15 | Paint Pts/Gm | 26.89 | Vegas Sprd | -15 | Paint Pts/Gm | 36.00 | |
| Team Proj. | 62 | Opponent TOs/GM | 10.22 | Team Proj. | 77 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.67 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 85% | Field Goal % | 43.90% | Ast/TO Ratio | 180% | Field Goal % | 53.70% | |
Georgia Tech
Charles Mitchell – I think this game could be closer than a lot of people think. Georgia does all of their work in the paint and Duke has a major weakness in the paint. Charles Mitchell came off the bench in the last game to outperform Robert Sampson and while I am not sure he has regained his starting role, he is extremely cheap at $5,200 and has the big body to back down Okafor in the post. This is a risky play because of minutes, but I do like the matchup.
Duke
Jahlil Okafor – Because Georgia Tech does a lot of work in the paint with Cox, MGH, Sampson, and Mitchell, Okafor is going to be busy in the paint which is a good and a bad thing. Okafor will grab more rebounds because of this, but will also be in danger of getting in foul trouble. I like him today on a slate of hardly any good post players because Georgia Tech is also extremely weak inside defensively and Okafor should be able to get whatever he wants. He did well against Virginia, so I see a lot of easy layups here.
Amile Jefferson – Just like with the reasoning for Okafor, I think Jefferson could be on tap to stop his brutal game stretch and put up a nice fantasy score. Jefferson has been horrible lately but he is going to need to be on the floor to stop the Tech bigs and usually when he is on the floor and producing early, he has a good game. Definitely a risky pick but you will not have to pay much for him.
Boston College at Notre Dame
| Boston College | Notre Dame | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.00 | Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.82 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 15 | Paint Pts/Gm | 31.56 | Vegas Sprd | -15 | Paint Pts/Gm | 36.64 | |
| Team Proj. | 62 | Opponent TOs/GM | 9.00 | Team Proj. | 77 | Opponent TOs/GM | 14.56 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 84% | Field Goal % | 44.30% | Ast/TO Ratio | 172% | Field Goal % | 55.70% | |
Boston College
Olivier Hanlan – Hanlan is a boss with a major floor and has a decent matchup against a Notre Dame team who does not have the greatest defense in the country. Notre Dame has trouble putting away teams as they cannot get stops down the stretch. Hanlan is one of the best players in the ACC and will find a way to score in this game. He has around a 30-point floor in my opinion and should continue to put up numbers.
Aaron Brown – If you want a cheaper play, I think Brown will get a few open looks from three today. He is sitting at $5,500 and brings solid shooting but not much else. His value is dependent on him making shots, and I would venture to call him a solid GPP play.
Notre Dame
Zach Auguste – The Eagles are the weakest down low, and Auguste should have a nice game with his team leading usage rate. It is hard for me to pay up for Grant when he is not even the leading shot taker on the team. Auguste’s price is still a bit low as we have not seen the 20-15 type of game that is coming at some point – it could be tonight against Magarity.
Pat Connaughton – Grant tends to defer to teammates in games where he does not need to take over and ends up with poor stat lines. I am having trouble arguing for using him today at his price with all of the other solid guard options. Connaughton is listed as a guard but should dominate Heckmann in the paint and on the perimeter, and is a nice contrarian look.
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