CBB Grind Down: Wednesday, March 4th
Glean insight from one of the game’s best, Varncass, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his DFS games, along with detailed analysis and reasoning.
Wednesday, March 4
What a weird, weird night. Ellis went down with an injury, Norris was horrible, and the Michigan/Northwestern game ended up in double OT. A lot of low scores ended up taking down some money, but I have a feeling that will not be the case today, as there is a ton of value out there and some great matchups and plays across the board.
Notre Dame at Louisville
| Notre Dame | Louisville | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 137 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.82 | Vegas Total | 137 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 7.78 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 36.64 | Vegas Sprd | -5 | Paint Pts/Gm | 33.78 | |
| Team Proj. | 66 | Opponent TOs/GM | 14.33 | Team Proj. | 71 | Opponent TOs/GM | 9.00 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 172% | Field Goal % | 55.70% | Ast/TO Ratio | 91% | Field Goal % | 44.00% | |
Notre Dame
None – There are many other situations I want to exploit today outside of Notre Dame playing at a solid defense in Louisville. All of these Notre Dame guys are super expensive, they have not been great lately, and you can find better matchups elsewhere, with Notre Dame projected to score under 60 points.
Louisville
Wayne Blackshear ($5,800) – Here we go again, I guess – Blackshear has really taken over for Chris Jones and had a great game in the last game with 28 fantasy points. He still sits at $5,500 today and it should be a mere formality that he makes value against a Notre Dame defense who is just plain average nationally. We all remember the 0-0-0 stat line that Blackshear put up, but that was an odd circumstance, and he has been good lately.
UCF at South Florida
| UCF | South Florida | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 134 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 6.33 | Vegas Total | 134 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 6.56 | |
| Vegas Sprd | 2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 18.89 | Vegas Sprd | -2 | Paint Pts/Gm | 27.11 | |
| Team Proj. | 66 | Opponent TOs/GM | 15.89 | Team Proj. | 68 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.89 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 97% | Field Goal % | 45.30% | Ast/TO Ratio | 80% | Field Goal % | 47.90% | |
UCF
Brandon Goodwin ($6,700) – UCF is a terrible team, but USF might actually be worse. With no Corey Allen, I would expect that UCF will actually end up being the favorite in this game. Goodwin is the one guy who you can trust on UCF, playing almost the entire game, running the point and getting over 20 fantasy points. His salary is the highest of this game, but he should be a solid play today and has good upside, as proven earlier in the year.
South Florida
Troy Holston Jr ($5,800) – Against Houston in the last game without Allen, Holston played the entire game, scored 22 points and had almost a 30% usage rate. He is a great option again here today against a UCF team who has an awful defense, and Holston should continue to play major minutes and take a ton of shots. I love him at the $5,800 price point, as he should have a great shot to hit 30 again.
Providence at Seton Hall
| Providence | Seton Hall | |||||||
| Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 6.18 | Vegas Total | 139 | Fast Break Pts/Gm | 11.33 | |
| Vegas Sprd | -1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 31.82 | Vegas Sprd | 1 | Paint Pts/Gm | 29.56 | |
| Team Proj. | 70 | Opponent TOs/GM | 13.56 | Team Proj. | 69 | Opponent TOs/GM | 12.18 | |
| Ast/TO Ratio | 120% | Field Goal % | 45.10% | Ast/TO Ratio | 96% | Field Goal % | 46.30% | |
Providence
Kris Dunn ($10,200) – Do I like Dunn or Henton more? Well, I always like Dunn because Henton’s value relies on scoring 30 game points and bringing down rebounds, as all of the possessions end with him. Dunn has many more ways of making value since he rebounds, assists and scores. He assists on a lot of Henton’s buckets as well, giving you some value when Henton scores. The Seton Hall perimeter defense scares me a bit, but Providence is a good team and Dunn went for 30 last time against Seton Hall as well. Either guy here makes a great play – I like Dunn more though.
Tyler Harris ($5,400) – Harris is getting back to his old self here, playing some great games and scoring 20 fantasy points almost every time out. With hardly any forward value today, you may need to pay up, but you are also going to have to find some value at forward. Harris is not going to provide a massive fantasy total, but he can score and has been getting a lot of minutes lately. Also, keep an eye on Desrosiers, who is questionable tonight, as he will have a large effect on Harris’ value.
Seton Hall
None – Gibbs is back, so what do we make of this? I think that we may see some growing pains, especially because Whitehead and his friends were able to control the team without Gibbs on the floor. I am very wary of a disappointing game from Seton Hall here, as meshing Gibbs back into the rotation may not work so well. This game means very little to Seton Hall except for maybe some Big East seeding and I think they lose while trying to figure out what role Gibbs will play in the team again. The prices on Whitehead and Carrington rose because of the suspension and I do not want a part of it here.
Continue Reading: FanDuel CBB Grind Down & DraftKings CBB Grind Down
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