CBB Slate Breakdown: Sweet 16, March 28th
The Sweet 16 slate being on a weekend was interesting – I liked some of it and disliked others (I appreciate multiple games going on at once). We get the same thing again today but I think today might be more interesting as the matchups are a little bit less snail-like and should all be pretty close except for maybe the opening game. Overall, should be a fun day. Let’s get into it.
Creighton (74), Tempo: 74
Luckily DraftKings priced a lot of these guys down here for us, the most obvious is Denzel Mahoney ($4,700) who is arguably the top value play on the slate. Mahoney has struggled lately, especially offensively, but he is likely to keep shooting and will still pick up a reasonable number of peripheral stats. This price is just too cheap, even against Gonzaga. Damien Jefferson ($5,600) also falls into that boat. I think you probably want to use one of Jefferson or Mahoney as they are significantly cheaper than they have been all season and it’s not like Creighton has all that bad of an implied total here -74 is actually quite reasonable. Marcus Zegarowski ($7,000) is your GPP play from the team – he should continue to have a monster usage rate with a good assist rate and has been solid lately – three straight over 30 FP. I like the price discounts here – it allows us to play this slate much better than the last one that did not have these guys cheaper. Mitch Ballock ($5,300) has not really moved and with him hitting his upside in the last two games, I think he is a guy we just leave in the player pool again. I have not really been interested in playing him, and I am not here. Christian Bishop ($6,100) is the other option in the post – he makes some sense as Gonzaga has pushed teams off the three-point line here, but I feel like I just want to go cheap. Bishop is at least a little bit of a risk against a very solid Gonzaga interior overall, and Jefferson/Mahoney make more sense as less of a risk with their cheaper prices.