CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 12
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with increased coverage of the sport from multiple platforms. My goal is to give you a weekly advantage on underrated players and roster flexibility.
Week 12 is here and we have yet another exciting week. If you haven’t already (Hopefully you have), it’s time to keep a keen eye on the injury report. There are quite a few fantasy situations that will be dictated by who does or doesn’t play this week. With that in mind…
Let’s get into it.
Editor’s Note: Perry Hills is out (mono) for today’s game vs. Indiana. Caleb Rowe will be starting at QB.
Perry Hills – (QB) Maryland – DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: N/A
Hills has struggled to get things going for a couple weeks now. After running for over 94 yards in four straight games, he’s totaled 25 in the last two. There are quite a few reasons for this, but, the most important factor has been opponents. Wisconsin and Michigan State (the last two teams he’s faced) are both ranked in top 20 in rushing yards allowed per game. Wisconsin is also first in the nation in points allowed per game. Michigan State has been more vulnerable to the passing game than most years, but they still rank 36th in points allowed per game.
It might seem confusing to be so focused on the running game for a quarterback, but that’s the avenue that Hills takes to provide fantasy success.
In terms of this week, Maryland is a 2.5-point favorite and they have an implied team total of 34. They go up against an Indiana team that has lost six straight games. In that same span, They’ve given up 29 or more points in every game. They’ve allowed just over 170 rushing yards per game this year and are tied for 98th in rushing touchdowns allowed (21).
If things go according to Vegas lines and how the teams have performed this year, Hills is a great bet to go over 100 rushing yards and have a really good chance at being a top-five quarterback in the early slate. I would feel comfortable using Hills in both cash games and tournaments. His role in the running game and matchup raises his floor higher than any of the quarterbacks in his price range.
Zac Brooks – (RB) Clemson – DraftKings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $4,500
The status of Wayne Gallman is clearly imperative to whether Brooks is in your lineups or not. If Gallman plays, Brooks is not a strong option.
Gallman, Clemson’s starting running back who’s already gone over 1,000 rushing yards this year, left last week’s game against Syracuse with an ankle injury. The severity is unknown, but he’s listed as “questionable”.
Brooks is listed is second on the depth chart, was the only running back to get carries last week and has performed well in a small sample size. In the running game, Brooke has 28 carries this year, he’s accumulated 194 (6.9 per carry) yards and three touchdowns. He’s also added five receptions for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Those would be tough per touch numbers to sustain, but seeing that he could hold up and thrive in game situations is nice to see.
Clemson is a 29-point favorite at home this week with an implied team total of 39. This is most important for Gallman’s status. The more of a blowout this is perceived to be, the less likely Clemson is going to be willing to risk playing Gallman in a less than healthy state.
If Gallman doesn’t play, it’s going to be hard to keep Brooks out of lineups. It’s rare that you find a player in line for real running back touches at minimum salary. He’s in play for both tournaments and especially cash games. I’d be a more cautious on FanDuel as you have to maximize each spot more in their format, but he’s in play there as well.
Tra Carson – (RB) – Texas A&M – DraftKings: $5,000 / FanDuel: $5,800
Carson started off the fantasy season slow because of the early season success of the passing game, when Kyle Allen and Christian Kirk were dominating the competition. It would be shocking and not realistic if someone said Kyle Allen wouldn’t be the starting quarterback after the first four or so weeks of the season. After Week 8, a game in which Allen only completed 12 of his 34 passes, he was benched in favor of Kyler Murray. The coach has announced that the quarterback competition is opened up again after Murray has struggled with the role as well. Regardless of who’s starting, the point of all this is that they’ve begun to lean much more on the running game in recent weeks.
Since Allen got benched, Carson had had 17 or more carries and 100 rushing yards in every game. Vanderbilt has been a strong rush defense against inferior competition, but they’ve given up some big games Nick Chubb (189 yards on 19 carries) Jaylen Walton (21 carries, 133 yards) and Brandon Wilds (24 carries, 119 yards).
The common theme between those three is that Vanderbilt lost to all three of those games. Despite being on the road, Texas A&M is favored by seven points, even with the quarterback situation in flux.
With that considered, I like Carson to continue to be relied upon and continue his streak of 100 rushing yard games. He’s a cash game play, as has a great floor for touches and yards. I would probably stay away in tournaments because the ceiling of his role and lack of big play ability. He’s a slow and steady runner who hasn’t had a run over 30 yards this year.
Chris Swain – (RB) Navy – DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel $5,900
Swain and his quarterback Keenan Reynolds have begun to get some national recognition after their big win against Memphis two weeks ago. Swain went for 108 rushing yards and three touchdowns in that game.
Swain’s production has been extremely erratic this year. In nine games this year, he’s been below 74 rushing yards in five and above 107 in the other four. Swain has had two multi-touchdown games, accounting for five of his eight rushing touchdowns on the year. He’s been all over the place this year, but the ceiling he provides is very high.
Navy comes into this game as 14-point favorites on the road against a reeling Tulsa team. Tulsa has given up 30 or more points in seven of their last eight games. They’ve given up 118 points (59 per game) in the two games they’ve played against ranked opponents. Tulsa is 116th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up just above 220 rushing yards per contest. They’ve also given up three rushing touchdowns per game. Navy has a projected team total of 40, one of the highest of all games this Saturday.
Swain is an inconsistent tournament play this week as a stand-alone asset. He can work for you in cash games as long as you stack him with Keenan Reynolds.
Ricky Jones – (WR) Indiana – DraftKings: $4,000 / FanDuel: N/A
If you’ve been playing daily fantasy all year, then you’re very familiar with Jones. He started off the year with four straight games with a touchdown or five receptions, including two games with 120 or more receiving yards and a touchdown. He did all that while being cheaply priced, and very easy to fit into lineups.
While his individual play hasn’t dropped off, injuries to Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard have slowed down the offense considerably. Losing those two for reasonable amounts of time combined with the fact that five of their last six opponents have been ranked and top defensive teams — it’s pretty clear to see why his production fell off. In that one game against a non-ranked opponent, Jones had six receptions, 119 yards and a touchdown.
Sudfeld is back, Howard is back and Indiana has a projected team total of over 30. Maryland has struggled mightily this year in the big ten, they’ve yet to find a victory.
Jones should be considered in cash games, even if you aren’t stacking him with Nate Sudfeld (although I highly reccomend doing so). He has stand-alone value and has already shown to have a strong ceiling against non-elite opponents.
Teddy Veal – (WR) Tulane – DraftKings: $4,100 / FanDuel: N/A
Tulane is a team that has struggled to find traction in 2015. They find themselves with only three wins and below average in every statistical measure.The good news is that they face off against a SMU team this week that has one win on the season. SMU is favored by three points because they’re at home, but with lines shifting by three points depending on the site of the game, this is an even matchup.
Offensively, Veal and junior Devon Breaux have been the bright spots in an otherwise unexciting offense. The big difference between the two is volume. The problem for Breaux is that he averages almost two receptions less per game, and in an offense that struggles to move the ball, that’s a big difference-maker.
Veal is coming off a big game, as well. He had four receptions for 123 yards and touchdown last week against Army. He’s had four or more receptions in seven of his nine games this year.
Tulane has an implied team total of 29, so if things go according to plan, they should be able to move the ball on SMU. If that’s the case, then Veal will reach and surpass value barring injury.
Veal is a tournament play. I would suggest using him as a diversified asset, and subbing him in where you mid feel uncomfortable relying totally on a player in a similar price range. There’s no realistic stacking option on his team, so that saves you from getting too much exposure to a below average Tulane offense.